General Discussion

Claustrum

(5,052 posts) Sat Nov 12, 2022, 09:16 AM Nov 2022

New update of current status of outstanding House races from Dave Wasserman

New House math:

Dem called/likely (212), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (6): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #WA03

Dems need to run the table on Toss Ups for 218.

It's possible #CA13 (Modesto) and #WA03 (Vancouver) lean slightly towards Ds at this point, and #CA41 (Riverside County) might lean ever-so-slightly towards Rs.

But #AZ01 (Scottsdale), #AZ06 (Tucson) and #CA22 (Bakersfield) are the toughest to divine at the moment.

Link to tweet

19 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

New update of current status of outstanding House races from Dave Wasserman (Original Post) Claustrum Nov 2022 OP

Looks doable but votes need to break our way. triron Nov 2022 #1

AZ 6??? Ugh...That one looks R to me..There was a discussion last night... LeftInTX Nov 2022 #4

I was wondering about that one last nght as well In It to Win It Nov 2022 #5

I think Wasserman is trying to juggle alot of districts and thought it included Tucson. LeftInTX Nov 2022 #6

Agree BUT I didn't think it would be this close grantcart Nov 2022 #11

This message was self-deleted by its author triron Nov 2022 #2

Dem is leading in WA-3 Deminpenn Nov 2022 #3

Clark County is where most votes remain to be counted dpibel Nov 2022 #12

Best Definition of Karma? Dems Having a Chance At Holding the House. Indykatie Nov 2022 #7

+1,000,000 NANCY! NANCY! NANCY! TigressDem Nov 2022 #9

LIVE UPDATE 10:50AM ET 201 DEM, 23 undecided 211 REPug --- link TigressDem Nov 2022 #8

IF CA's MAIL IN BALLOTS are mostly DEM, we'd have 18 of the 23 undecided - 219 FTW TigressDem Nov 2022 #10

That's what I'm hoping for!!! Alice Kramden Nov 2022 #13

I hope so. David__77 Nov 2022 #14

Depends on where they are though Deminpenn Nov 2022 #15

Yes, there are places in CA that are just plain old red. LeftInTX Nov 2022 #16

Meant the outstanding ballots Deminpenn Nov 2022 #17

Some of these districts were red before. I'm not expecting miracles. LeftInTX Nov 2022 #18

But, hopefully, the RED votes are already counted. TigressDem Nov 2022 #19

triron

(22,240 posts)

1. Looks doable but votes need to break our way.

Reply to Claustrum (Original post)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 09:29 AM

Nov 2022

Anyone here have familiarity with any of these districts?

LeftInTX

(30,620 posts)

4. AZ 6??? Ugh...That one looks R to me..There was a discussion last night...

Reply to triron (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 09:49 AM

Nov 2022

It's not Tucson, it's area surrounding Tucson..

In It to Win It

(9,766 posts)

5. I was wondering about that one last nght as well

Reply to LeftInTX (Reply #4)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 09:56 AM

Nov 2022

Even though Engel (D) is not so far behind that it's impossible to make up, I was skeptical that the remaining votes would lean her way.

LeftInTX

(30,620 posts)

6. I think Wasserman is trying to juggle alot of districts and thought it included Tucson.

Reply to In It to Win It (Reply #5)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 10:25 AM

Nov 2022

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

11. Agree BUT I didn't think it would be this close

Reply to In It to Win It (Reply #5)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 11:09 AM

Nov 2022

There is Avery strong independent local PAC that started as an anti McSally movement. They could be organizing the eastern suburbs.

The country's largest Move On chapter is in Pima county.

Still possible.

Response to Claustrum (Original post)

triron This message was self-deleted by its author.

Deminpenn

(16,347 posts)

3. Dem is leading in WA-3

Reply to Claustrum (Original post)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 09:36 AM

Nov 2022

Usually it goes that toss ups all fall in the same direction. It might be a good sign if Dems do flip WA-3 that all the other close elections go to Dems as well.

dpibel

(3,439 posts)

12. Clark County is where most votes remain to be counted

Reply to Deminpenn (Reply #3)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 11:51 AM

Nov 2022

That's Gluesenkamp Perez' stronghold--she leads there 56% to 44%. Hard to believe the late-counted votes would break against her. Unlikely there are enough votes remaining in the outlying cracker counties to make a difference.

Indykatie

(3,853 posts)

7. Best Definition of Karma? Dems Having a Chance At Holding the House.

Reply to Claustrum (Original post)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 10:33 AM

Nov 2022

TigressDem

(5,126 posts)

9. +1,000,000 NANCY! NANCY! NANCY!

Reply to Indykatie (Reply #7)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 11:00 AM

Nov 2022

OMG what's his face is measuring for curtains already.... lol

TigressDem

(5,126 posts)

8. LIVE UPDATE 10:50AM ET 201 DEM, 23 undecided 211 REPug --- link

Reply to Claustrum (Original post)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 10:59 AM

Nov 2022

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/10/us/elections/results-house-seats-elections-congress.html

Chart on the link is encouraging. 13 of the 23 undecided are leaning toward DEMS.

AND 5 of those leaning Repug are in California.... which has outstanding mail in ballots that still need to be counted.

Even two that have been "called" Repug technically in California are at 71% counted and 56% counted, so they could flip.