General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums
Blue Owl
(55,553 posts)Farmer-Rick
(11,692 posts)When I vote for a pedophile.
Joinfortmill
(17,507 posts)Tickle
(3,629 posts)Biden in. If he's ill, then it should be Kamala. I'll write them in if I have to but no one else will tell me who I am voting for.
thank you,
we can do it
(12,838 posts)If I have to, I will carry Joe on my back to get him across the finish line to save democracy. Billionaires and bedwetters be damned.
TwilightZone
(28,835 posts)It's not inevitable (and I'm not sure how many people are actually saying that, the author's claim notwithstanding), but it has to be about more than just Trump.
If voters weren't convinced of how abhorrent Trump was in 2020, I'm not sure why some are so insistent that it suddenly makes a difference in 2024. It doesn't.
Nearly everyone made up their minds about Trump years (or decades) ago. None of that matters to nearly half of voters -- they're going to vote for him regardless of what he says or does. The people to whom it does matter turned on Trump years ago. We keep fooling ourselves into believing that his latest atrocity will be the final straw for voters.
The only thing that matters now is turnout. We need to outvote them. It's true now, and it was true in 2016 and 2020, as well.
Wednesdays
(20,372 posts)If we get out the vote, we win. If we don't get out the vote, we lose. It's as simple as that.
Farmer-Rick
(11,692 posts)An incumbent almost always wins......but not in 2020. He was so awful, that his lead didn't help him.
Now Biden has the incumbent lead...though the corporate media is hiding it through bad polling.
That's the reason these anti Biden Dems are being paid to take down the Biden ticket. The Dems will lose a huge voting boost by removing the encumbent from the ticket.
And it would make Pedo Trump look like the encumbent because he would be the most recent office holder.
It's so obvious to me that the GOP, with Putin's help, is manipulating this anti Biden push. And Dems are falling for it. They also like the money Putin sends their way.
AdamGG
(1,633 posts)Ask George HW Bush, ask Jimmy Carter - they didn't lose because they were "so awful".
If the Democratic Party selects a candidate, it is because they sincerely feel that that candidate has a better chance of winning than Joe does. It is unprecedented to have an 81 year old presidential candidate show signs of cognitive decline the way Joe did in the debate and afterward making comments like calling Zelensky "President Putin" and Kamala Harris "Vice President Trump".
Adam Schiff is not being swayed by "Putin money" in voicing his opinion. He has the same motivation as you that it's a nightmare if Trump returns to office and he's trying to back a candidate that he feels offers the best chance of avoiding that.
If the Democratic party unites behind another candidate and Joe gives it is backing, it is imperative that all of us give that candidate our full support.
we can do it
(12,838 posts)Farmer-Rick
(11,692 posts)Encumbent advantage is so common you can find hundreds of thousands of links describing it and it even appears on Wiki.
"In general, an incumbent has a political advantage over challengers at elections. Except when the timing of elections is determined by a constitution or by legislation, the incumbent in some countries may have the right to determine the date of an election.
For most political offices, the incumbent often had more name recognition due to their previous work in the office. Incumbents also have easier access to campaign finance, as well as government resources (such as the franking privilege) that can be indirectly used to boost the incumbent's re-election campaign."
Yeah, ALMOST always the encumbent wins. With Carter, Raygun got the Iran terrorist to hold off releasing the American hostages until after the election. This made Carter look awful.
With Bush, his involvement in Iran Contra started to come out with his 2nd election attempt and it made him look awful.
With Pedo Trump.....well he always looked awful, he just looked worse in office with so many dead from COVID. Pedo Trump is regularly voted the worse president in history.
I don't know what criteria you use for awful but to me these are awful things that made these incumbent lose.....note that being older isn't commonly a disqualifier for an encumbent.
There is evidence that many of these "Biden is too old" Dems have been getting funding from uncommon sources. Our elections are awash in unaccountable funds. I doubt Putin is Not joining in on the bribe bonanza.
AdamGG
(1,633 posts)First of all, HW Bush not getting re-elected in 1992 had 0% to do with Iran-Contra. That should have been a factor in 1988 and 1992, but it was not.
You are also misinformed on the results of incumbent US Presidents who have been sought re-election. 31 US Presidents have sought re-election. 21 of them got 2nd terms and 10 of them failed to. That works out to a failure rate of about 32.2%, which is not by any statistical definition, a result of incumbents "almost always winning".
The incumbent presidents who failed to be re-elected were John Adams, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren, Benjamin Harrison, William Taft, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George HW Bush, Donald Trump.
No incumbent president with approval/disapproval numbers where Biden's are has EVER been re-elected.
I'm not here to bash Biden, I like the man. But, I think many people here are putting on blinders and unwilling to acknowledge the reality we are in. Biden being 81 and showing cognitive decline isn't a Putin plot. No Democrats were focusing on it before the debate, but the American public has seen it and although many of us may be willing to still vote for him, there's an alarmingly high probability that he may not get enough votes from the American public as a whole.
Farmer-Rick
(11,692 posts)As I said before Almost all incumbents win. You only looked at presidents. And only presidents in the US. You need to expand your research. And 10 out of 45 is not a third. It is about 22%.
Well since our polling system is reliant on phone interviews and nobody is answering their phones anymore. You need to take all polls with a giant grain of salt.
In the last 3 major elections 2016, 2020 and 2022 the polls got it wrong. Polls have been getting worse and worse because people aren't answering unknown phone numbers and the people who do, are kind of different.
The fewer and fewer people taking polls causes the pollsters to use some not always reliable math to extrapolate what the full population of voters would do. In many cases, even in favorabilty polls, the pollster may be working with single digit samples sizes.
Small samples cause big problems. All that to say the only really reliable polls anymore are in-person large sample size polls which cost a lot to do.
Biden explained his poor performance at the debate and the American people are willing to accept that. He's not perfect. But American voters are not abandoning him. He is a very viable candidate. Kamala would be a bait and switch and the American voter would see through that.
You need to take your energy for a replacement candidate to the RNC. Pedo Trump should drop out of the race and put Vance in. At least Vance is younger and doesn't come with sexual abuse findings, Epstein as a BFF, stolen secret documents and business fraud felon convictions. Not to mention Pedo Trump's dementia and psychopathy.
It's really crazy that Dems are pushing for the guy without the felon convictions to drop out.
AdamGG
(1,633 posts)I stated very clearly that 21 incumbent presidents have been re-elected and 10 have not. That's a total of 31, not 45. Some presidents, like Teddy Roosevelt, didn't seek re-election, some died of natural causes while in office, 4 were assassinated.
10/31 is a failure rate of 32%. However that history may apply to the present case, you're making an emotional argument and changing the numbers rather than simply acknowledging it.
The people who prefer a replacement for Joe Biden are doing it because they feel it will give them a better chance of beating the convicted felon, not because they want to concede to him.
Farmer-Rick
(11,692 posts)First when you reduce your sample size to only those 21, (I was giving you the benefit of the doubt by uping your sample size.) your statistical anomolies increase. So, look at other country presidents or other types of office holders, get your sample size up above 21, if you want an accurate understanding of the incumbent affect.
Getting rid of Biden would improve Dems chances of winning??? That is so far out.
If that were true, the get rid of Biden crowd wouldn't be sounding just like right wing Fox commentators, Russian bots and trolls, and Pedo Trump himself on golf cart interviews.
Helping Dems get elected? Where were you in the primaries??? Too little, too late.
AdamGG
(1,633 posts)It's getting rid of Biden after he exhibited significant cognitive decline in the debate. Then, when he was trying to show that he was sharp, he referred to Zelensky as "President Putin" and Kamala Harris as "Vice President Trump" (comical errors that are bound to draw lots of attention and cannot be buried).
The choice in replacing Biden is to not continue to have embarrassing senior moments before the election that damage his chances and distract from focusing on the corrupt con man who is the alternative.
We're at the point where if Trump wins, some Democrats are going to blame it on either Biden staying or being replaced, no matter which choice is made. We need to all do our best to fight so that there is never the option to assign that blame, no matter which choice is made.
Farmer-Rick
(11,692 posts)Why didn't you and the anti Biden Dem politicians bring this up during the primaries in 2023? Then there was a better chance of putting in....Kamala? without disrupting the entire campaign and looking like concern trolls.
I was kind of expecting a challenger then. Now it's too damn late. Kicking out Biden will only put the entire party in disarray and guarantee a pedo Trump win.
Go chase down Pedo Trump sites and his supporters. Tell them to kick out pedo Trump and replace him with Vance for the good of the country and party. That would be more useful to the Democratic party.
AdamGG
(1,633 posts)and up until the debate on June 27th. I thought that he would dispel the right wing talking points of diminished capacity by having a strong debate (as he had against Trump in 2020 & Paul Ryan and Sarah Palin before that) and surge in the polls after dispelling that myth.
There isn't anything I could post online that would change MAGAt's minds. I've left a sports message board rather than read their posts. It's paramount that Trump doesn't come back to office and appoint judges for 4 more years and reshape the FBI, DOJ, EPA, etc. If he's a pedophile, that doesn't even crack the list of the 50 worst things about him.
But, I don't think that Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Adam Schiff and increasingly others are responding to something that isn't real or have delusional judgement.
If the change happens and Joe gets behind it, he could make a heartfelt historic presidential address and be one of the leaders of a unifying campaign.
Farmer-Rick
(11,692 posts)That would never work without tearing apart the Democratic party. It would be just like in 2016, where Democratic voters stayed home, or voted for a third party because they were unhappy about how Bernie and more liberal Dems were treated.
It would be a war inside our party AND it would end just like it did in 2016.
Because you failed to notice a problem less than a year ago, makes me think it isn't such a problem. Besides, we have a good VP. She can step in if things do go south, which they haven't.
Pedo Trump is just as incapacitates with age AND he has dementia and psychopathy. But his supporters aren't going around ringing their hands, wanting to tear apart the party.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions. And it seems the road to a Pedo Trump win is paved with concern trolls and anti-Biden BS spread by Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Adam Schiff and increasingly others.
You keep this up all the way to the election and you will guarantee a Pedo Trump win.......which I think is the goal.
DownriverDem
(6,759 posts)about this kind of talk that I just gave another donation via ActBlue to the Biden campaign. All of us who can no matter the amount should donate today.
we can do it
(12,838 posts)bamagal62
(3,803 posts)To ActBlue (how I have donated in the past)?
Or, should I link there through DU? If through DU, where can I find that link? Ive looked. Thx!
Qutzupalotl
(15,261 posts)I am royally pissed off today, so I will be kicking in again for Joe. I hope anyone reading this will too.
Thread with more DU donation links:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218885532
bamagal62
(3,803 posts)peggysue2
(11,685 posts)Is all part of the Strongman's game plan. The Trumpers want and need a dispirited voter base, a woe-is-me, there's nothing we can do attitude. They need us to curl into a fetal position and stay home on election day.
The firehose of disinformation and continued chaos is all part of the freakout strategy.
Which is why we need to put our heads down and continue to do the work whatever that may be. For me at the moment it's writing postcards. For others it will be canvassing and phone banks. For Dark Brandon it's recovering from Covid, and then continue pressing the flesh and the argument that we will not succumb to a fascist takeover.
RESIST THE NOISE!
Because our frigging lives and future depend on it.
NoMoreRepugs
(11,054 posts)CaptainTruth
(7,463 posts)
Botany
(73,520 posts)For the love of God Trump is out on bail.
OldBaldy1701E
(7,400 posts)They are not high. They are just graduates of the Dunning Kruger School of Intellectual Prowess. Remember... they are far more intelligent than we peons are.
Oh also... FUCK giving up! GOTV!
Mblaze
(488 posts)These last, very successful, four years would lose many of the 81 million voters who supported the Dems in the last election no matter how hard MAGA Little yells that the sky is falling, especially with our current bribed SCOTUS flexing their chauvinism in our faces.
tavernier
(13,513 posts)I am not a billionaire. But I do still have a vote.
notinkansas
(1,194 posts)And we outnumber the mega donors.
birdographer
(2,820 posts)Finally! So tired of personal friends going into depression because they seem to think it is inevitable that Donny will win. This is precisely what the MSM are hoping for--that they can keep pushing against Biden, leaving Donny alone, and these people are being duped--it's exactly how the cult was formed. Fear mongering, sending people to hide under the covers and give up, my friends are all falling for it and it is just so sad to see them buying into it hook, line, and sinker. Exactly like the cult--no critical thinking, no questioning, just buying it that all the polls are right and Donny will win, it's over. There are more of us than them and in November we will vote blue. Not thrilled at the idea of writing in Biden's name, since that is the same as not voting at all since most people will vote for whoever is on the ballot and the write-in votes will be invalid, but that's their choice, I guess.
bdamomma
(67,668 posts)putting polls first, what about the facts!!!!!!!!!!!! The media and those who want Joe to step down are not for the people!!!!!
Geechie
(994 posts)Theyre huffing fumes.
Martin Eden
(13,958 posts)Thanks for sharing
Goatguy
(17 posts)It s about exclusion. Exclude women, lgbt, workers, immigrants. Also lower and middle class determining culture. In other words the majority.
Special elections wins, England and France not supporting the right, Ukraine. Tax deal expiring. Abortion, $15 minimum wage on ballot in red states. All of this is behind the decision on Joe.
Baitball Blogger
(49,473 posts)deflate our voters and make us easy pickins for some misguided Dem leader to ride in on his horse to pretend to save the day.
This is not Democracy. This is a chaotic mess that is not worthy of our country.
It is the seedy side of this country, which is taking over.
SpankMe
(3,394 posts)But, I'm not hopeful.
Republicans are not holding ground and winning with good policy or by appealing to the masses. They are engineering their victories thru voter suppression, cherry picking right wing judges and threats of violence. It is truly minority rule.
It shocks the conscience that Joe and Trump are running neck and neck knowing how decent Joe is and how objectionable and nasty Trump is. As a previous poster noted, all of Trump's flaws were known to the voters in 2020, and it was still a close race.
Republicans have been able to recalibrate, shape-shift and adapt over the last 3-1/2 years to maintain their numbers. They're learning and are continuing to game the system to keep them where they are. We don't know how all of this will affect the election.
They key is getting non-voters to vote. Tens of millions of voters sat out the last 2 elections. There's ample data showing that those non-voters hold opinions favored by Democrats by wide margins. These people are just too apathetic. We have to do something compelling to light a fire under these people. Touting Joe's A-team and his decency won't do it. Showing data about Trump's planned deportations, concentration camps, federal civil service gutting and anti-abortion savagery have a better chance. People respond to negativity and rage more than to puppies and spice cake.
duckworth969
(966 posts)Wounded Bear
(61,513 posts)bdamomma
(67,668 posts)is he getting near that WH, and it's not only DU'ers who are here. My phone pops up with people saying VOTE BLUE!! so there is MAJORITY OF US who are not going to VOTE for him!!!!!
lees1975
(6,291 posts)Takket
(22,913 posts)his chance of winning over 50%