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Johnny2X2X

(20,881 posts) Fri Jul 26, 2024, 09:34 AM Jul 26

Inflation eases further in June as Fed's favorite measure, PCE, falls to 2.5%

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-inflation-rises-moderately-june-131016945.html

What's funny is the bias in this article title, if you go to the Yahoo Finance page it's title is listed as 'inflation rises" on the maine YahooFinance page. Inflation was 2.6% in May, and then fell to 2.5% in June. How is that rising? Oh, you have to look closely as month over month it was 0.0% on May and 0.1% in June. Both of those monthly nuymbers are outstanding and if they continue get us well below 2% inflation. You really have to spin it to make the headline seem negative. These number contonue and we'd be at less than 1% inflation a year from now.

There is only one more of these reports before the September meeting where the Fed will lower interest rates if everything holds.

Prices are basically flat right now, have been for a couple months. Wages contine to rise at a good pace though.

11 replies

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Highlight:

Inflation eases further in June as Fed's favorite measure, PCE, falls to 2.5% (Original Post) Johnny2X2X Jul 26 OP

Jerome could lower interest rates now. gab13by13 Jul 26 #1

Half point coming Johnny2X2X Jul 26 #2

25BP WarGamer Jul 26 #5

50 is almost assured Johnny2X2X Jul 26 #6

Not likely. WarGamer Jul 26 #7

Fair enough Johnny2X2X Jul 26 #8

the faster rates drop the better, within reason. WarGamer Jul 26 #9

MArkets having a massive fday Johnny2X2X Jul 26 #3

after two sell-offs... FWIW, I'm a daily trader. WarGamer Jul 26 #4

Run-away inflation? Surely the MAGAts jest... ProudMNDemocrat Jul 26 #10

Thank you President Biden LetMyPeopleVote Jul 26 #11

gab13by13

(23,789 posts)

1. Jerome could lower interest rates now.

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Fri Jul 26, 2024, 09:43 AM

Jul 26

TSF ordered Jerome not to lower rates. maybe Jerome will do a quarter point in September, we shall see.

Central bankers meet next week, lower the rates then.

Johnny2X2X

(20,881 posts)

2. Half point coming

Reply to gab13by13 (Reply #1)

Fri Jul 26, 2024, 09:47 AM

Jul 26

It's all but assured that a half poin drop will come in September. Powell is independent and not doing a rate cut now would be a disaster for his career and reputation. Powell has a chance to be near immortal as far as economists go, the soft landing he is pulling off will be lauded and studied for 100 years, he's not going to risk that for Trump's ego.

WarGamer

(14,071 posts)

5. 25BP

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Reply #2)

Fri Jul 26, 2024, 12:04 PM

Jul 26

Johnny2X2X

(20,881 posts)

6. 50 is almost assured

Reply to WarGamer (Reply #5)

Fri Jul 26, 2024, 12:07 PM

Jul 26

There was talk of 25 now and 25 in September, but I think that was scrapped for 50 in September.

WarGamer

(14,071 posts)

7. Not likely.

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Reply #6)

Fri Jul 26, 2024, 12:10 PM

Jul 26

Traders are now absolutely certain the Federal Reserve will cut rates by September. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 93.3% chance that the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate will drop to 5% to 5.25% in September from the current 5.25% to 5.50%.

There’s also a 6.7% chance of a half-point drop, reflecting some traders’ belief that the Fed might cut rates at both the end of July and again in September.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wall-street-is-unhappy-with-jerome-powell-s-rate-cut-strategy/ar-BB1q6BXo