Lichtman: a lot would have to go wrong for the Dems to lose this election

Will Vice President Harris beat Trump? Historian who's predicted 9 of the last 10 elections weighs in
Allan Lichtman has used his "Keys to the White House" system to correctly predict most elections since 1984.

https://www.scrippsnews.com/politics/america-votes/presidential-election/will-vice-president-harris-beat-trump-historian-whos-predicted-9-of-the-last-10-elections-weighs-in

But on Tuesday, Lichtman told us that although the president stepping aside cost the party one of the "keys" — that being the incumbency key — he believes Democrats will "avoid disaster" by their coalescing around Harris as the likely nominee, thereby avoiding the loss of the contest key.
Lichtman said this now puts the Democrats down only three keys. They are party mandate — which he defines as the incumbent party holding more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after midterm elections than before, which didn't happen — incumbency, and incumbent charisma, which Lichtman said was a loss "because Harris is not an FDR."
Lichtman told Scripps News for the incumbent to be counted out of the race, they would need to be down six total keys — meaning three more would have to fall.
"That can happen, but it's not likely. So as a result of the Democrats retaining the contest key, I continue to say, a lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose this election," Lichtman said.