We’re not going back!!!!

finish line.

Kennedy actually helps her in 2 states, makes no difference in another, and fall behind in another.

Pennsylvania

Harris:
Tie. - 7/22-7/24 - Fox News
+2 Harris -7/22-7/24 - Fox News
(W/Kennedy)


Wisconsin (10 EV)

Harris:
+1 Tr - 7/22-7/24 - Fox News
Tie - 7/22-7/24 - Fox News
(W/Kennedy)


Minnesota

+6 Harris - 7/22-7/24 - Fox News
+6 Harris - 7/22-7/24 - Fox News
(W/Kennedy)


Michigan (15 EV)

Harris:

+.3 Harris - 7/22-7/24 - Fox News
+2 Tr - 7/22-7/24 - Fox News
(W/Kennedy)

Just kidding

You can phone bank from anywhere in the country.

I'm weighing to see if I can move to a swing state in October & early November to block walk for Kamala

Important correction, thank you!!

... so I'll know where not to knock 😉

But it has been a week of enthusiasm and hope among Democrats and those on the Left as well as some non-maga Republicans.

Trump and his minions will try to make the entire election all about race. That's always been their modus operandi.

...that foxnews would ever present anything, ever, that isn't intended to hurt Democrats somehow.

Some of the questions Fox has them ask are tendendentious. It doesn't matter as long as the horse race questions are first.

As far as polling is concerned.

They contract with a pair of Dem/GOP pollsters to do their polls: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).

The way they report them is often slanted, but the polls themselves are legit polls with live interviews, done by a reputable Democratic and Republican pollster, and well rated on 538. They don't usually tilt any further right than other news organizations' polls.

to pay attention to the trends we are seeing. Positive movement towards the blue is about all we can ask for these days, so improving news.

Democrats will get out the early vote. Republican don't do it which means some of them won't make it on election day.

FOX News polling is handled by a very good group.

For Judge Merchan will brief and follow the law. No way is he going to drop the verdict.

Whitmer won by 10 percent, how can it be tied?

Same with PA where Shapiro won by 15%

I don't see how they are so close.

Harris ain’t runnin’ fer guvnah.

These results are an improvement over previous surveys.

As is the economy heading into the fall.

They haven’t voted for a republican for president since Nixon over 50 years ago.

In 2016 Clinton only won the state by 46.4% to 44.9%, a 1.5% difference.

We should never underestimate how destructive and divisive... and how seductive... appeals to hate and resentment can be.

Republicans sure haven't

In the last three presidential elections, here's the percentage won by the GOP nominee in Minnesota:

2012: 45%
2016: 45%
2020: 45%

My guess is that Trump probably wins 45%. If Minnesota is close it'll be due to third party candidates.

Sorry, but if we did our jobs right, 3rd parties wouldn't win over the margins of victory from us.

No voter owes their vote to the Democratic Party. It's our jobs as loyal partisans to earn the votes of the general electorate. If another party outhustles us, well that's just how democracy works.

I'm a Democrat, but I'm a democrat ahead of that.

I never once said Hillary was robbed. Never said anything remotely about it. I did point out that Minnesota was closer than it's been in the most recent election cycles because third party candidates did much better there than we've seen - not that Trump somehow expanded typical GOP support. That's all.

Perhaps I misunderstood what you meant by "but rather third party candidates taking away from Hillary." From the context I thought you meant votes

They did take away from Hillary. That's a fact based on what we know from previous elections. That doesn't mean there wasn't reasons for those voters, who likely voted Obama in 2012 and Biden in 2020, not voting Hillary. But those third party candidates did take votes from Hillary.

in terms of Biden dropping out was the expansion (via both public and internal polling) of seriously at-risk states to include NH, NM, MN, VA, and even CO and NE-2 towards the end. That is on top of being consistently down, for months, in the core swing states of AZ, GA, WI, MI, PA, NV, and (the only real remotely flippable chance from Red to Blue) NC.

Do not forget that Minnesota was pretty damn close in 2016. It was one of only two states I missed on the EC map. I had it going Red (following the rest of the Midwest collapse) and FL going Blue (will not make that mistake again, did not in 2020, and certainly do not see it going Blue this time either, unfortunately).

If Jersey ever becomes a swing state, we're "screwn" (remember that?)

Things are getting set back to normal now. My blood pressure is back to sane levels. But our Titanic was cruising toward an iceberg for a couple of months there. It was an important history lesson for all of us.

Northern Minnesota was once reliably blue thanks to unions working the taconite mines. That's gone now. And rural Minnesota is far more red now, where 50 yr ago farmers like my grandfather were Democrats.

All the major cities are still blue, but our margin of victory has been eroding lately.

In less than a week Harris has managed to reverse Biden’s slide. If the trends continue…

"Trends" are a whole other kind of narrative used by corporate media, and that's for another discussion.

After less than a week!

Stuart Rothenberg was surprised and encouraged by how quickly this has happened. He thought it would take another week or two for the polls to reflect improvement.

She's going to gain momentum and pass Trump soon. The narrative will change. She'll be the frontrunner, and then the Inevitable Loser Stink will settle on Trump, and he'll be done.

Let's do away with the Electoral College and then the press can treat all of us voters the same.

Sorry, but that's just not a constructive suggestion.

In a "Best of All Possible Worlds" universe, then yes, a popular vote system would be more just. But we don't live there and the obstacles to getting there are effectively insurmountable. ☹️

But I'm afraid we're a long way from getting that done. It's just too big of an ask with the country so split up.

I'm thinking positively about this. It will happen sooner than we think.

Had dinner with a very conservative friend tonight. He is not counting for Trump. He usually has a pretty good reason things from a conservative perspective.

He thinks Harris is going to win in a landslide. And he really doesn’t like her.

Not for long…..K A M A L A Is going to kick arse in Wisconsin…..it’s only July 26th. Gonna kick arse in November.