General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHe Predicted Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and Now... NYT Opinion
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are scheduled to debate on Sept. 10, but the 2024 presidential election is already in the bag at least according to Allan Lichtman, the American University historian whos been dubbed the Nostradamus of presidential election predictions for his near-perfect 40-year track record.
Mr. Lichtman was among the few to accurately predict Mr. Trumps victory in 2016 (earning him a Sharpie-scribbled note from the candidate lauding the GOOD CALL!). Immediately after the first 2024 presidential debate, between Mr. Trump and President Biden, Mr. Lichtman was also quick to warn that Mr. Biden dropping out of the race could be a tragic mistake for Democrats, leading him directly into an online battle with the forecaster Nate Silver. The confidence is rooted in Mr. Lichtmans simple, history-driven model, which tunes out polls and pollsters and instead focuses on 13 true-or-false questions that he says hold the keys to the White House.
So can a model that looks all the way back to the horse and buggy days survive in an unprecedented election year marked by criminal proceedings, an assassination attempt and that Democratic switcheroo? Mr. Lichtman is confident that it can.
And what is his prediction in this unpredictable year? Well, for that, youll have to watch the video.
edbermac
(16,065 posts)Im sure the Trumpers have a lot of dirty tricks up their sleeves.
captain queeg
(11,561 posts)Seriously, if I watch every video posted here that would probably take up my whole day.
speak easy
(10,207 posts)tavernier
(13,024 posts)And frankly, made my day.
Trueblue1968
(17,755 posts)I would like to read news articles please.
captain queeg
(11,561 posts)Or promising to make a point at the end of the video. I dont mind some of them but its gotten overwhelming.
Hekate
(93,494 posts)LeftInTX
(28,997 posts)PortTack
(33,961 posts)Mr. Sparkle
(3,054 posts)lets hope hes right.
Jmb 4 Harris-Walz
(122 posts)WarGamer
(14,235 posts)Several are subjective.
Subject to personal opinion.
WarGamer
(14,235 posts)wikipedia:
Some of the keys are objective, such as economic growth, while some are subjective, such as candidate charisma
ClimateHawk
(268 posts)Go to 16:07 in this video. Lichtman lays it out.
WarGamer
(14,235 posts)Quixote1818
(29,906 posts)everything. We can win the National vote but what if Texas becomes blue or PA turns more red? Then the keys mean absolutely nothing.
BlueKota
(2,975 posts)because I have been getting down about the poll numbers even though I know we can't trust them. This race shouldn't even be close. I still don't get why the fuck anyone with even half a brain are willing to vote for tsf? I need all the positive reassurance I can get!