General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHarris up 1 or 1.5 in PA: 9/9 NYT Yougov poll
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/pennsylvania#google_vignetteShe's up 1 without 3rd parties, up 1.5 with 3rd parties.
Of course, republicans are foolish enough to waste their vote on losers, as if anyone would "get their message".
The message from 3rd party write-ins is, "I'm a total and complete idiot."
for The Times, and the SAY24 project for Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities.
This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S.
Census American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as
2020 Presidential vote and 2022 baseline partisan identification. Respondents were selected to
be representative of registered voters living in Wisconsin. The weights range from 0.1 to 5.6,
with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 0.8.
The margin of error for a percentage based upon the entire sample is ±4.1 points. The margin
of error is larger for subsamples and differences of percentages.
From me:
I'll wager that PA has a higher minority and female turnout due to demographics and Dobbs. Also, PA isn't a particularly religious state, so, there is more room for Harris to pull in voters with her agenda. Also, using 2020 turnout under-reports women, as well.
Wuddles440
(1,299 posts)"PA isn't a particularly religious state" is inaccurate as the Catholic Church continues to influence a large segment of the population (increasingly elderly but reliable voters) along with evangelical churches with their conservative congregations (especially prevalent in rural areas of the state). For instance, I have relatives in a suburb of Pittsburgh who always receive a "Voter's Guide" from their Church Council during the election season (they've never "recommended" voting for a Democrat). Also, PA has a rather large Amish and Mennonite population who always support any candidate with a "R" after their name.
lindysalsagal
(21,842 posts)on the coasts. I'm just saying Harris has a better chance peeling off some previously non-shows, or women who never thought their freedom would be on the line. The old line: "they're all the same" doesn't fly this year. Harris has a good chance here to find new voters, even beyond Obama's. Tscf has nowhere to find new voters.
yellowcanine
(36,119 posts)And the the regular Mennonites are varied in their political persuasions.
Wuddles440
(1,299 posts)And I've resided in areas encompassing their communities in both PA and OH. In fact, just recently there was a group of Amish men (probably less than a dozen in the picture) in attendance at Traitor Don's rally in Butler, PA.
yellowcanine
(36,119 posts)which proves the rule. And doesn't mean large numbers are voting. Amish and Mennonites traditionally have not voted for two reasons. They are non resistant (pacifists) and political activity undermines that position. They don't want to serve on juries (judge not lest you be judged) - registration rolls are often used for jury recruitment. I am a Mennonite, my grandfather was Amish.