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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDemocratic operative explains what caused the 2016 polling error
On the podcast 'The Downballot', Democratic data expert John Hagner explained that Trump voters did indeed share their voting intentions, but hung up before completing the survey, resulting in incomplete calls that did not show up in the data and skewed results.
brush
(56,298 posts)If a client pays for a 15-question poll, the pollster is obligated a 15-question interview. So, is someone says "Because fuck you" and hangs up, the couldn't use the candidate preference data. Hagner said about a third of Trump respondents did this.
senseandsensibility
(19,499 posts)and only want to say they support their cult leader.
RandySF
(66,226 posts)Hagner thinks pollsters' attempts to compensate MAY lead to inflated numbers for the GOP.
bucolic_frolic
(45,767 posts)Sounds like a good theory.
RandySF
(66,226 posts)bucolic_frolic
(45,767 posts)And that Republicans did it more than Democrats. Interesting.
RidinWithHarris
(381 posts)538 had Clinton's chance of winning at 70%. That's nice, but hardly a shoe-in. The 30% possibility coming true is hardly that damning of the polling in a tight race.
It was people's expectations and punditry that were way off base, much further off base than the raw numbers.
Think. Again.
(15,405 posts)Polls are not science, they are shots in the dark OR creatively crafted narrative starters.
Oh, wait, I get it, by pretending the polls from the past were wrong for...reasons, we can continue to pretend current polls are perfectly correct now. Got it.
democrattotheend
(12,006 posts)Did they include those calls? If so, that could explain why the downballot Dems underperformed, if they didn't stay on long enough to answer the downballot questions. That could also explain why so many downballot Dems are outperforming the top of the ticket this time.