Dan Pfeiffer is former communications director for the Obama administration.

...and I'm also not the kind of person who blithely dismisses polling, it's very hard for me to believe that Democrats don't have an enthusiasm and motivation advantage that would be hard for the pollsters to model and account for.

While we shouldn't act like we can count on it, I think we'll see a lot of the same surprise advantage that has come out for Democrats in special elections and for abortion rights ballot measures.

Especially at this stage of the campaign?

Additionally, Democrats routinely outperform the polling. (There are reasons for that.)

Sure, you can have your head in all the numbers you want. But if those numbers or methodology are wrong, your conclusions will be wrong.

Trump is going to lose and lose fairly big. He will lose the popular vote by 8% +/-2%. Harris will take the EC with a minimum of 287 EVs, and possibly as high as 366, though it will likely be around 303.

A lot can happen in that time period. My prediction is a major fuck-up is more in store for Trump/Vance than Harris/Walz (who, by all accounts, has run a pretty flawless campaign).

Also, count on more big purple GOP endorsements for Harris/Walz to come in. The Cheneys broke the dam, so to speak.

We have work to do people.

Kamala and Tim MUST win and win convincingly.

So that tells you how reliable they are

And then come back and tell us? Would save a lot of anxiety 😬

If V.P. Harris wins we can all breathe a sigh of relief. If tsf wins, my anxiety will soar and the recurring awake and asleep nightmares will begin.

I wish after I vote, some one could put me in an unconscious, but still alive state, and only revive me if Kamala Harris wins

full blown panic attack, because one state return after another was counted as in for TSF.
I Couldn't breath, chest tightened so hard I honestly thought I might be having a cardiac arrest. Somehow I managed to grab the remote, turn off the set, reached for a bottle of Brandy and a joint, after a couple of hits of each, I started calming down. I didn't bother turning the set the next day, I asked a friend to tell me what the results were.

Not going to do that this time.. I'm keeping the TV off and possibly checking in with DU until midnight after California's results are in. which will be for Harris/Walz of course, but won't be official until late. as per usual.
I hate the EC. It needs to be ABOLISHED.

else tell you the good or bad news. I agree about the electoral college. Tired of having minority dictate to the majority.

To the point when it was painfully clear, Biden's debate performance was going south and no real hope of recovering. So, I just quit following the thread, got off the computer and started practicing my music which made me feel a little better.

Shut off the news or whatever social media reports are upsetting me, and do something totally unrelated like play with my dog, listen to music, watch a TV show etc.

and anti-depressant, anti-anxiety medicine. Must avoid watching cable and broadcast news with very rare exceptions. I've realized way back we are not just in a fight against political and religious extremists and fascists but the corporate news industry which enables and supports it to the detriment of our democracy. If participating in the democratic process of elections is nothing but a circus show for the news media, we are effed. I cannot watch it, do not wish to support it by watching it But since there's eff all any of us can do about it, we can at least stop giving them clicks on line or on the TV.
But folks are addicted to it, so i'll just keep doing what I'm doing to try and keep sane.

Polls haven't been right in over 10 years.

He said it maybe close, and we still have to do everything to we can to help, but in the end he believes VP Harris will win. That gave me a needed hope boost because being an election lawyer he has to have a pretty good handle on what's going on with the electorate.

People trash the big polling units by saying there's other internal polling that is different. I call bullshit.

There's one thing that all polls show and that is Harris has a much higher favorability than Trump. This doesn't get talked about much but this is very important for winning over leaners.

I will continue to harp on the importance of us making sure that our family and friends are registered to vote and will vote in this election. Polls are useful data but we can’t get discouraged or overconfident in what they say at a given point in time. We have to do our part to get this victory