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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhere are all the reputable pollsters?
It looks like reputable pollsters are doing less polling this election cycle, and it's leaving a gap that's being filled by right-wing pollsters. This has led mainstream media, polling aggregators, and even betting sites to rely on these biased polls, which push the narrative that this election is closer than it isor that Trump is even ahead. In Pennsylvania, for instance, we're seeing a lot of right-leaning polls from places like Trafalgar Group, Patriot Polling, Wick, and InsiderAdvantage, with some showing Trump in the lead. These skewed polls then distort the overall polling averages. Whats notable, though, is that even these biased polls can only show Trump ahead by 1 or 2 points, suggesting they cant fabricate a more substantial lead for him.
kansasobama
(1,185 posts)What is up with reputable pollsters? I mean, hardly any polling after DNC?
Fiendish Thingy
(17,327 posts)So the reputable pollsters do fewer polls less frequently.
Just wait until October, when there will be dozens of shitty polls each week.
We shall see if 538 will include them all in their averages (they did in 2022, and that is what got Nate Silver fired).
You can count on RCP to include them in their aggregator.
BluenFLA
(87 posts)waterwatcher123
(218 posts)https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/pollsters-got-it-wrong-2018-2020-elections-statistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/. This article in Fortune seems to suggest that Morning Consult is better and that Trafalgar Group, which is funded by Republicans, is pretty poor. If any other business had as poor of a track record at predictions as these polls, they would be closing up shop. Many of them seem to have another purpose.
https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/election-polls-are-95-confident-but-only-60-accurate-berkeley-haas-study-finds/#