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USAFRetired_Liberal

(4,270 posts)
Sat Sep 7, 2024, 10:16 AM Sep 7

Where are all the reputable pollsters?

It looks like reputable pollsters are doing less polling this election cycle, and it's leaving a gap that's being filled by right-wing pollsters. This has led mainstream media, polling aggregators, and even betting sites to rely on these biased polls, which push the narrative that this election is closer than it is—or that Trump is even ahead. In Pennsylvania, for instance, we're seeing a lot of right-leaning polls from places like Trafalgar Group, Patriot Polling, Wick, and InsiderAdvantage, with some showing Trump in the lead. These skewed polls then distort the overall polling averages. What’s notable, though, is that even these biased polls can only show Trump ahead by 1 or 2 points, suggesting they can’t fabricate a more substantial lead for him.

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Fiendish Thingy

(17,327 posts)
2. Conducting valid polls costs way more money than a biased poll
Sat Sep 7, 2024, 12:31 PM
Sep 7

So the reputable pollsters do fewer polls less frequently.

Just wait until October, when there will be dozens of shitty polls each week.

We shall see if 538 will include them all in their averages (they did in 2022, and that is what got Nate Silver fired).

You can count on RCP to include them in their aggregator.

waterwatcher123

(218 posts)
4. There are very few that are reliable - according to linked Boston Globe article below some do worse than a coin toss.
Sat Sep 7, 2024, 02:14 PM
Sep 7
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/04/03/opinion/why-are-presidential-polls-wrong-biden-trump/. The worst polls according to this opinion piece are Ipso and Morning Consult.

https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/pollsters-got-it-wrong-2018-2020-elections-statistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/. This article in Fortune seems to suggest that Morning Consult is better and that Trafalgar Group, which is funded by Republicans, is pretty poor. If any other business had as poor of a track record at predictions as these polls, they would be closing up shop. Many of them seem to have another purpose.

https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/election-polls-are-95-confident-but-only-60-accurate-berkeley-haas-study-finds/#
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