A 40% chance of rain equals a 60% chance it WON'T rain.

I'll take the chances of it NOT raining over the chances it will.

...it's true that the magat movement has made being what used to be considered socially unacceptable into a celebrated lifestyle.

I can only hope reason will return to society after he's gone and no longer around to promote being vile as a fashionable personality trend.

In the same manner Reagan made liberal an epithet, these cretins have made elitist an insult.

From what I've seen and read as well as through my interactions with Trump supporters, it's my guess that a great many of those people are illiterate, incurious and ignorant. They resent those who are educated and successful so they follow the leader who gives them license to justify their grievances and prejudices. They don't care about Trump's failings perhaps knowing of their own shortcomings. Oddly, they seem happy in their cult of complaints.

I'm proud of my education because I worked really hard to learn things. Studying also created a profound curiosity in me and I try to learn new things every day. The world is full of fascinations and it is baffling to me that there are people who don't value the ability of our brains to learn. If that makes me an elitist, so be it.

Sure, its all we have but those polls over read his actual support, because of the way they build and conduct the poll.

They assume there will be more turnout from tsf supporters and less for dems, and then they reach more conservative voters when they use phone surveys.

Its systemic. They just dont care.

The polls seem to be leaning towards VP Harris winning the election. I'd be happier if the numbers were more heavily tilted our way but a win is a win.

Here's the weird thing. Nate Silver says that Trump will win. Alan Lichtman says that VP Harris will win. Both can't be correct.

My opinion is that VP Harris will win by a very large margin. I think the pollsters are struggling to redefine their methods as our culture has outrun their craft. My point is that polling isn't a science. It doesn't make hypothesis that are tested and peer reviewed. The mathematical formulae created by pollsters are imperfect because the subjects being polled are imperfect in that their answers to the polling questions can be self-contradictory or even misleading. I'm skeptical of most polls from whatever source because it's just news of the moment.

Issac Asimov, the science fiction author, wrote a humorous short story about polling called, "The Franchise." The 1955 tale describes the (then-future) 2008 election when one person is chosen to represent all of the American voters. Supercomputer Multivac asks this person a huge number of questions to predictively model the way the people of the U.S. would "vote." One question was "What do you think about the price of eggs?" The selected voter leaves the experience dizzy and drained but feeling patriotic and proud.

He is not an impartial analyst.

He is deep in the pockets of the right and its shady money.