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USAFRetired_Liberal

(4,270 posts) Sat Sep 7, 2024, 06:01 PM Sep 7

Polls underestimating Trump's support

Political pundits often claim that Trump’s poll numbers are underestimated and that it's tough to accurately capture the "Trump voter." While this might be true for Midwestern battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the opposite has been the case in the Sun Belt. In 2020, Arizona and Georgia weren’t even widely considered battlegrounds—it was almost assumed they'd go to Trump based on the polls. Yet, they ended up flipping blue. Even in states Trump won, like Texas and North Carolina, the results were much closer than the polls had predicted.

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Polls underestimating Trump's support (Original Post) USAFRetired_Liberal Sep 7 OP

tRUMP's fans are so desperate, aren't they? They know that they are circling the drain slowly, and there's nothing SWBTATTReg Sep 7 #1

I'm starting to ignore polls (and posting them on DU) Dennis Donovan Sep 7 #2

For what it's worth Wiz Imp Sep 7 #3

I don't remember specifically WHICH Grown2Hate Sep 7 #5

That was true in 2016.... getagrip_already Sep 7 #4

SWBTATTReg

(23,541 posts)

1. tRUMP's fans are so desperate, aren't they? They know that they are circling the drain slowly, and there's nothing

Reply to USAFRetired_Liberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 7, 2024, 06:05 PM

Sep 7

they can do about it, being that tRUMP is doing it all to himself, inflicting by far the most wounds by badmouthing America, our vets, and just about everybody else in-between.

Dennis Donovan

(22,007 posts)

2. I'm starting to ignore polls (and posting them on DU)

Reply to USAFRetired_Liberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 7, 2024, 06:09 PM

Sep 7

I'm going by what Professor Alan Lichtman predicts - he uses a set of "keys" instead of polling. He's been 10 for 10 in the last 10 races (yeah, yeah, I know Bush ultimately won FL but that was due to SCOTUS stopping the legitimate counting of votes - Prof Lichtman had Gore winning and after-the fact examination of the vote counting by independent sources showed Gore would've won FL had the counting been allowed to continue).

Prof Lichtman says VP Harris will win the 2024 Presidential Election.

Wiz Imp

(324 posts)

3. For what it's worth

Reply to USAFRetired_Liberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 7, 2024, 07:18 PM

Sep 7

Democrats have consistently (and often significantly) out performed the polls in every significant election since 2020. (This includes the 2022 "red wave" that polls predicted but didn't happen). Abortion related ballot initiatives have significantly outperformed the polls as well.

Grown2Hate

(2,096 posts)

5. I don't remember specifically WHICH

Reply to Wiz Imp (Reply #3)

Sat Sep 7, 2024, 08:35 PM

Sep 7

races, but I watch every special election and I remember a handful in that timeframe being SIGNIFICANTLY off the polls in our favor (10-15% points; maybe one in NY?). So I'm optimistic!

Still... GOTV! 🥰

getagrip_already

(16,908 posts)

4. That was true in 2016....

Reply to USAFRetired_Liberal (Original post)

Sat Sep 7, 2024, 07:18 PM

Sep 7

When he was able to mobilize infrequent voters who liked the racist/mysoginistic/change issues.

Those voters have either moved on or are already baked in.

Who isnt being counted?

Likely voters are usually defined as those that have voted in the past 4 years. That excludes young voters, and women who havent been motivated to vote for various reasons. It also invludes vets who, for various reasons, have had other things going on in their lives that pushed voting down on their list of important issues. All pols supported vets and protected vet benefits.

Not so much anymore. Millions of women are mobilized by the roe wave, vets are offended by the disrespect, and the youth are lining up in large numbers.

The brain worm has turned. Its dems that are being undercounted.

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