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applegrove

(123,884 posts)
Mon Sep 9, 2024, 11:42 PM Sep 2024

New Tracking Poll Of All Swing States Brings Bad Debate Eve News For Trump

Last edited Tue Sep 10, 2024, 02:32 AM - Edit history (1)

New Tracking Poll Of All Swing States Brings Bad Debate Eve News For Trump

https://www.politicususa.com/2024/09/09/new-tracking-poll-of-all-swing-states-brings-bad-debate-eve-news-for-trump.html

"SNIP ...........

Morning Consult released a ton of new tracking poll data showing that Donald Trump is not leading Kamala Harris in a single swing state. (except Arizona)

Here is how it looks in the swing states:

.......

There is also a red state red alert as Trump is only up by two points in red state Florida. If Trump were to lose Florida, the election would be over. Trump can’t lose a single red state or he will lose the election.

Harris is leading in enough battleground states to win the election if these were to hold. If Vice President Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the election will be over.

Trump was at one time dreaming of flipping blue states, but now there isn’t a single blue state that looks like an easy flip while now having to defend Florida and North Carolina. The numbers in total suggest that this will be a close election, but Kamala Harris looks to have more ways to win and more campaign upside.

.............SNIP"

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Frank D. Lincoln

(713 posts)
1. Harris and Walz are still only in the very early stages of their campaigning.
Mon Sep 9, 2024, 11:57 PM
Sep 2024

From here on out she and Walz are going to open up a serious can of whip ass on the wannabe dictator and future inmate.

pat_k

(10,883 posts)
12. As long as they get that 1 elector in NE -- need that for 270.
Tue Sep 10, 2024, 12:44 PM
Sep 2024

It's Lean D according to Cook Political, so probably safe enough. I hope the polls get clear enough to shift MI, PA, and WI to Lean D in the next couple weeks. It's a bit nerve-wracking as it is.

Dem4life1970

(617 posts)
15. Did you watch Walz in NE?
Tue Sep 10, 2024, 06:05 PM
Sep 2024

His trip to Omaha 3 weeks ago was amazing. He was back home, in his element connecting with Nebraska voters in his typical authentic way (being born an hour Northwest of Omaha in West Point).

pat_k

(10,883 posts)
17. Probably locked up.
Tue Sep 10, 2024, 06:32 PM
Sep 2024

But I would feel better if Cook Political would move it from Lean D to Likely D. They do have two of ME's electors as Likely D, so we have that covered.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Jack Valentino

(1,550 posts)
3. What I heard today is that Harris has been polled leading in Maine's "Red" congressional district--
Tue Sep 10, 2024, 12:06 AM
Sep 2024

which along with Nebraska alots some electoral votes by congressional district. That would be good...

"If Vice President Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the election will be over."

Along with the expected northern blue wall states,
Harris needs one additional electoral vote in either Nebraska or Maine to reach 270,
without any electoral votes in the sunbelt. Otherwise, the result would be tied at 269, and Trump would very likely be elected by the House (based upon number of state delegations controlled, and not upon House party control.)



(This was not true in 2020, but the northern blue wall states and blue states in general lost several electoral votes due to the census re-adjustment.
Michigan lost one, California lost one, not sure about the specifics of others)

Bettie

(17,482 posts)
11. Here's the info from the Census Bureau
Tue Sep 10, 2024, 11:50 AM
Sep 2024

After the 2020 census, five states gained one House seat (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon) and Texas gained two. Seven states lost a House seat (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia).

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