General Discussion

nitpicked

(859 posts) Sun Oct 6, 2024, 07:00 AM Oct 6

(8 am: TS Milton strengthening)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/061149.shtml

Tropical Storm Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A STRONGER MILTON...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 94.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
(snip)

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida late today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.6 North,
longitude 94.9 West. Milton has been moving slowly eastward
overnight, and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast
during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward
motion. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move across
the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane later
today, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across
the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
(snip)

7 replies

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Highlight:

(8 am: TS Milton strengthening) (Original Post) nitpicked Oct 6 OP

Where will it hit? As? nitpicked Oct 6 #1

The modeling I am following (which has been as accurate as modeling gets in the past) has it falling below named storm.. Pacifist Patriot Oct 6 #2

I dont see those wind speeds decreasing that much. Lochloosa Oct 6 #3

I don't take anything for granted. I'm hoping this is what happens, but preparing for the worst. Pacifist Patriot Oct 6 #6

please share your modeling onethatcares Oct 6 #4

This website Pacifist Patriot Oct 6 #5

Fucking bummer!! lark Oct 6 #7

nitpicked

(859 posts)

1. Where will it hit? As?

Reply to nitpicked (Original post)

Sun Oct 6, 2024, 07:12 AM

Oct 6

Currently, who knows?

At this moment, one model page

https://flhurricane.com/clarkmodelanimator.php?year=2024&storm=14

shows it striking anywhere from Cedar Key to Ft Myers.

Its companion intensity page
https://flhurricane.com/clarkintensityanimator.php?year=2024&storm=14

is split between TS, Cat 1/2, and Cat 3 (plus the hurricane models hype it more, but I take that with a full saltshaker for now).

There may be improved ideas by tomorrow.

Pacifist Patriot

(24,912 posts)

2. The modeling I am following (which has been as accurate as modeling gets in the past) has it falling below named storm..

Reply to nitpicked (Reply #1)

Sun Oct 6, 2024, 07:56 AM

Oct 6

status by 3:00 p.m.Tuesday out in the Gulf. The center of the system projected to make landfall between 11:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday near Cape Coral with sustained wind speeds no higher than the high 30s/ low 40s mph but some decent wind gusts at TS force - potentially low Cat1. Looks to exit over Vero Beach between 8:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. on Wednesday evening. Central eastern coast of Florida (where I live) will get periods of sustained winds in the 20s mph range with gusts in the 50s mph with heavy rain throughout Wednesday. Fingers crossed it stays that low...or lower!

These beasts are so hard to predict 72 hours out.

The problem we're going to have is that we are getting an appetizer today that is saturating our ground. Dumping additional water on top of this is...concerning.

Lochloosa

(16,434 posts)

3. I dont see those wind speeds decreasing that much.

Reply to Pacifist Patriot (Reply #2)

Sun Oct 6, 2024, 08:10 AM

Oct 6

I've lived in FL my whole life. I've never seen a storm fall apart that quickly. Now if it wasn't moving maybe. Milton is
Comact like Andrew and he increased speed After hitting land.

Pacifist Patriot

(24,912 posts)

6. I don't take anything for granted. I'm hoping this is what happens, but preparing for the worst.

Reply to Lochloosa (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 6, 2024, 08:42 AM

Oct 6

onethatcares

(16,596 posts)

4. please share your modeling

Reply to Pacifist Patriot (Reply #2)

Sun Oct 6, 2024, 08:34 AM

Oct 6

it'f be appreciated

Pacifist Patriot

(24,912 posts)

5. This website

Reply to onethatcares (Reply #4)

Sun Oct 6, 2024, 08:41 AM

Oct 6

https://www.ventusky.com/

It was very accurate about 48 hours ahead of Helene. But like all models, I don't rely on it. I'm hoping it is this, but preparing for the worst.

lark

(24,325 posts)

7. Fucking bummer!!

Reply to nitpicked (Original post)

Sun Oct 6, 2024, 09:02 AM

Oct 6

We’re prepared as much as we can be for whatever but 2 hits in a few weeks would be hard to bear. Ground is so saturated, trees going over would be an even bigger problem.

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