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LonePirate

(13,835 posts)
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 01:14 PM Oct 10

Gut Check - How confident are you about our chances in November?

With regard to the Harris/Walz presidential ticket, how do you feel with regard to their chances to win at least 270 Electoral College votes?

I love our candidates and I was very confident a couple of weeks ago but things seem different now as the MAGA horde seems to be increasing in size.


247 votes, 2 passes | Time left: Unlimited
Very confident we will win
107 (43%)
Somewhat confident we will win
92 (37%)
Not sure what to think
40 (16%)
Not very confident as things seem bad
7 (3%)
No confidence whatsoever as things look bleak
1 (0%)
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll
45 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Gut Check - How confident are you about our chances in November? (Original Post) LonePirate Oct 10 OP
Not giving up, not going back! Walleye Oct 10 #1
I vacillate between "we're gonna stomp his orange ass' to 'we're gonna squeak by.' CrispyQ Oct 10 #2
Yeah, this is me. Arthur_Frain Oct 10 #20
I'm somewhere between toss-up and late night victory without a concession speech until 2 days later. WarGamer Oct 10 #3
Same exact spot DeepWinter Oct 10 #24
So confident I'm already preparing the crow I'm going to serve up. BannonsLiver Oct 10 #4
It's all about turnout. NameAlreadyTaken Oct 10 #5
Democrats win the Presidency, House and Senate FarPoint Oct 10 #6
RSO rso Oct 10 #32
I'm waiting to see if there are any late trends, but I feel OK at the moment servermsh Oct 10 #7
I'm more convinced than ever that we'll see a replay of 2020 Rocknation Oct 10 #8
I am somewhat confident. Initech Oct 10 #9
Amazed at the "Very Confident" Prairie Gates Oct 10 #10
I'm not. A few weeks ago, nearly half the forum who voted said she'd win by Bill Clinton margins. Self Esteem Oct 10 #12
Jeez, guy Prairie Gates Oct 10 #13
+10000 BannonsLiver Oct 10 #18
No. I think this place is setting itself up a really bad election night. Self Esteem Oct 10 #40
Wooooooow Prairie Gates Oct 10 #44
Honestly you don't seem to "love" the confidence. BannonsLiver Oct 10 #19
Less confident than a few weeks ago but still somewhat confident. Self Esteem Oct 10 #11
very damned confident Torchlight Oct 10 #14
Leaning toward more confident ...and I have a strong feeling that Jrose Oct 10 #15
Despite living in Texas, I have guarded confidence - TBF Oct 10 #16
Mostly confident, especially because Jrose Oct 10 #17
I think she'll win, but I'm very nervous Poiuyt Oct 10 #21
Republican chicanery is my only fear. Cartoonist Oct 10 #22
In 2000 i learned to stop being confident about elections Buckeyeblue Oct 10 #23
Chill about it Sympthsical Oct 10 #25
Very confident, but with a disclaimer. Valdosta Oct 10 #26
It's a coin flip - I have no idea what dipshits in 5 swing states will do. maxsolomon Oct 10 #27
Confident, though not as much as I was right after the debate. Elessar Zappa Oct 10 #28
As long as women can vote this election, we win it all JT45242 Oct 10 #29
Very confident until I read crap like this: Bayard Oct 10 #30
Win the popular vote edhopper Oct 10 #31
My gut has been wrong before BWdem4life Oct 10 #33
It's Schroedinger's election; we are both winning and losing. The polls don't tell us anything. Ocelot II Oct 10 #34
I chose the somewhat option Quiet Em Oct 10 #35
I had a conversation a while back with a former chair of the NC Democratic Party Persondem Oct 10 #36
Was there a category for orange men? n/t Blaukraut Oct 10 #42
If we vote, we win. tavernier Oct 10 #37
Not sure what to think Mz Pip Oct 10 #38
Very confident we kacekwl Oct 10 #39
Note sure what to think WestMichRad Oct 10 #41
Win or lose, you may be right n/t Polybius Oct 10 #45
I think it will be a blowout that surprises the entire country. Women have had it with Trump's shit. Vinca Oct 10 #43

CrispyQ

(37,932 posts)
2. I vacillate between "we're gonna stomp his orange ass' to 'we're gonna squeak by.'
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 01:23 PM
Oct 10

We're definitely gonna stomp him on the popular vote. I predict Harris will get more votes than Biden did, & Trump will get fewer votes than he got in 2020. Electorally? IDK. Supposedly her own internal polls show it's close in swing states I wouldn't have thought would be this close.

Arthur_Frain

(2,101 posts)
20. Yeah, this is me.
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 02:12 PM
Oct 10

On a good day I see the GE scalding his ass for ten million votes (it should be more than twice that), then I drive through a certain section of town and I wonder if all is lost.

Trying to tell myself they’re a noisy few.

FarPoint

(13,505 posts)
6. Democrats win the Presidency, House and Senate
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 01:27 PM
Oct 10

The battle will be post election deniers and again, claims of a stolen election....This will possibly have some violence attached to it ..... but Democrats will prevail...

servermsh

(1,347 posts)
7. I'm waiting to see if there are any late trends, but I feel OK at the moment
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 01:32 PM
Oct 10

What I don't like is that for the past two and a half weeks, Trump/Vance have done something like three times as many speeches as Harris/Walz. I want to see more rallies.

Rocknation

(44,818 posts)
8. I'm more convinced than ever that we'll see a replay of 2020
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 01:46 PM
Oct 10

Last edited Sat Oct 12, 2024, 11:05 AM - Edit history (1)

with votes coming in from first-timers, youngsters, independents, the formerly apathetic, mortified moderates, embarrassed evangelicals, and especially ex-MAGAts that the pollsters hadn't be able to "count" on.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=18540373


Rocknation

Initech

(101,482 posts)
9. I am somewhat confident.
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 01:47 PM
Oct 10

I am getting really sick of seeing a million polls and Trump's stupid ugly face on every single social media post. I am seriously thinking of taking a break from it until the election is over.

Self Esteem

(1,367 posts)
12. I'm not. A few weeks ago, nearly half the forum who voted said she'd win by Bill Clinton margins.
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 01:56 PM
Oct 10

I love the confidence but it's not happening lol

Self Esteem

(1,367 posts)
40. No. I think this place is setting itself up a really bad election night.
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 04:43 PM
Oct 10

It's not fun watching a train barrel down on someone and when you warn them, you're attacked for it.

The amount of people who think this election is going to be a blowout amazes me and yes, worries me because I don't think they're mentally prepared for what is likely to come: multiple days of waiting for returns because of how close things will be - and yes, the real possibility Trump actually does prevail in the end.

Torchlight

(4,233 posts)
14. very damned confident
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 02:00 PM
Oct 10

Confident enough that I'm constantly giggling at each boy who cries wolf instead of rolling my eyes at them.

Jrose

(1,304 posts)
15. Leaning toward more confident ...and I have a strong feeling that
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 02:01 PM
Oct 10

VP Harris will 'kick the ball high and through the net' in her October town hall that replaces the second debate with truth-dodger Djt.

TBF

(33,836 posts)
16. Despite living in Texas, I have guarded confidence -
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 02:01 PM
Oct 10

VP Harris is the right person at the right time - and she does not have the negatives that have dragged down some in the past. It gives me hope that some prominent republicans are putting country over party. We really need voices of the future to keep us from not only turning back the clock (womens rights etc), but also deal with very pressing problems like climate control. I am very confident we can win the popular vote, less confident on electoral college. I know Trump will try to steal it, just hope leadership is thinking about those possibilities.

Jrose

(1,304 posts)
17. Mostly confident, especially because
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 02:02 PM
Oct 10

VP Harris will 'kick the ball high and through the net' in her October town hall that replaces the second debate with truth-dodger Djt.

Buckeyeblue

(5,658 posts)
23. In 2000 i learned to stop being confident about elections
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 02:27 PM
Oct 10

I think VP Harris is running a good campaign. We have the funds for a good ground game to get out the vote.

Sympthsical

(9,969 posts)
25. Chill about it
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 03:45 PM
Oct 10

I just don't foresee America bringing Trump back.

2016 I saw coming a mile away. Knew 2020 would come down to the wire in swing states. This time, I do think it will be close-ish in swings, but Trump is put to bed for the last time.

It could be my sense of the country is flawed in some way, but I read around in a lot of spaces and speak to all kinds of people. Just don't see it. Even Republicans feel like they're, I dunno, going through the motions? Like they know it's not happening. It almost feels like our own obsession over him is giving him more life than he would ordinarily have. I hear about the man far more in blue political spaces than red ones. It feels like they're pointedly ignoring him, knowing being anti-Harris is more productive for them than being pro-Trump.

I would genuinely be surprised by a Trump win. I'm not saying a hubristic "We got this!" situation (no 2016 repeats, please). But I'm honestly not feeling any anxiety about November. It just feels like he's done.

Valdosta

(331 posts)
26. Very confident, but with a disclaimer.
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 03:49 PM
Oct 10

The Republicans likely have something planned other than just getting out the vote.

maxsolomon

(34,875 posts)
27. It's a coin flip - I have no idea what dipshits in 5 swing states will do.
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 03:49 PM
Oct 10

I'm trying to not think about that fuck winning.

JT45242

(2,785 posts)
29. As long as women can vote this election, we win it all
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 03:54 PM
Oct 10

So many women had silently had miscarriages and know...holy crap if that happened now, I might die, be sterilized, etc. because of what they have done and it will only get worse.

When my wife had a miscarriage...we were devastated. When it didn't all pass within a couple of days. They scheduled a D&C on Friday so there was ZERO RISK of complications over the weekend. If it happened now, we would have had to wait until it was infected badly enough that her life was at immediate risk (minutes or hours, not days) before a doctor would touch her where we live now. If that means a hysterectomy, her death, whatever. Doesn't matter to the Republicans.

She is telling her story now.

If women know this could be them, their, sisters, their daughters, their grand daughter, niece, etc. they will not vote for any Republican for any office above local city council.

BWdem4life

(2,313 posts)
33. My gut has been wrong before
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 04:00 PM
Oct 10

(2004, until I saw the last Ohio polls and realized the fix was in.) Wanted Kerry to pick Clark for VP.

It has also been right:

2000, 2016 (my gut said it could go either way). Both times I didn't like the VP pick.
2008... 2012... 2020, I was confident.

So, in the past 6 elections I've been 5-1

This year I am confident, it's gonna be Kamala. Positive energy and good VP selection always wins over negative energy (plus Vance drags their ticket down).

Persondem

(2,070 posts)
36. I had a conversation a while back with a former chair of the NC Democratic Party
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 04:17 PM
Oct 10

He was smart, well informed and did a great job as Party Chair for his 4 years in office. He told me that, unfortunately, white men did the best in political contests. An African American man will perform 3-5% worse that a white man. A white woman will similarly perform 3-5% worse than a white man. An African America woman will perform 6-8% worse than a white man. Americans may have gotten over some of these biases, but I have a feeling that there's still enough racism and sexism out there to make this election far closer than it should be. It should be a Blue Wave year, and I really hope that women, younger voters and disaffected Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

tavernier

(13,164 posts)
37. If we vote, we win.
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 04:32 PM
Oct 10

I think we are much more motivated, so I believe our voters will be there. Not much complacency or indecision on our side, or there’s, but our numbers are bigger.

Mz Pip

(27,821 posts)
38. Not sure what to think
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 04:40 PM
Oct 10

I live in a dark blue dot in a blue state so comprehending Trump’s support has been an exercise in futility. Every time he opens his mouth something more despicable comes out. I do not get his appeal. I don’t see how his supporters don’t throw their hands up in disgust.

This shouldn’t be even close. Sometimes I’m optimistic, sometimes I’m pessimistic.

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