a month or so ago. Lots of folks need little excuse to panic. And Bob Casey sending out another round of woe from PA, which should stop, doesn't help.

Yep. Cooked, and for multiple reasons: Making Trump feel better, and fucking with Democrats' heads among them.

Everything in America is based on bottom line for money. The accuracy of the polls is based on how they did at the finish line. So they are just all making guesses. There is no way to get data. People don’t answer phones. It’s all a scam.

from Dems all over the USA asking for money, not to mention other charities because, hey, it's 'giving' season. I just don't have any more to give.

Why? Because I have HEALTH CARE DEBT. No shit. I SHOULD be doing better than I ever have financially in my life, but NO, NOPE, we still have shitty, rationed, profit-driven healthcare with financially crippling copays. AND, don't get me started on dental, because the ACA forgot all about teeth. I guess they aren't important - only they fucking ARE. And getting your teeth fixed costs an arm and a leg, and even if you are 'lucky' enough to have Delta Dental, their best plan pays $1500 up front and then the rest is on YOU. That is ONE fucking tooth. So speaking of dental insurance, we REALLY have shitty, rationed care with financially crippling copays.

And then I will be 66 and plan to retire maybe sometime in my 67th year if I can swing it, and have you even looked at how HARD, how COMPLICATED it is to apply for Medicare? All the so-called Wall Street driven 'Advantage' plans are overbilling the government, and the supplement plan and the drug donut plan...shit. I mean, those poor people that WERE covered under the Humana Advantage Plan - it withdrew from a bunch of place where it 'isn't PROFITABLE.' I'm an economist and crunch numbers for a living but this is damned HARD to figure out.

Sigh. So, yeah, no surprise that the polls are profit driven too! God knows, we don't have enough PROFITS! And those poor widdle billionnaires just don't have enough money! They need a nice tax cut at our expense, and heck, we working schmucks will just have to suck it up and eat out of dumpsters once we can't work anymore. Because of the weight of the greed of the few that has been driving this whole fucking thing for decades.

Wall Street, shareholder primacy capitalism and the billionaire parasites ruin everything they get their hands on. Look at Google. It USED to be a good search engine. Now it is a great PROFIT generating engine that is increasingly hard to use for actual research.

Fuck. Fucking Wall Street. Fucking billionaires. Fuck!

OK, rant over.

look at the polls before the election…just a thought.

In the clip.

Even normally reputable polling corporations will do a little massaged poll that lies and shows Trump in the lead in one or two battleground states. Because they don't want to deal with Trump's banshee cult members yet again....self censorship to avoid Trump cultists threatening them or worse. Intimidation does work.

This is so Trump can put it in his pocket when he loses. Then when he tries another attack on the capital or takes it to the Supremes, he can show it off. See this poll showed I was winning. Who you going to believe?

They stole the election from me, this poll told the truth the others were rigged. He will cry like a baby waving around one or two massaged polls.

big guns like Obama, Clinton and the like shows me their internal polls are not looking good.

has nothing but audio in these fabulous videos. They can be listened to while driving, or cleaning the house or any other myriad of things you do on a daily basis.

They ALWAYS "send out the big guns" during these Presidential elections BECAUSE it's a Presidential "election".

Clinton came out for Obama both times. Carter did as well -

E.g.,

There are also critical down ticket races that need attention, and all hands on deck is how you finish up a national campaign. Hence President Obama is speaking in PA with a message aimed at black male voters, while President Clinton is going to Georgia and NC to reach out to voters he won with in the 1990s. Bernie Sanders speaking to more progressive audiences in the Midwest, same thing.

People bring up the "internal polls" boogey man come every election; they are used to scare, to reassure, to fundraise, to explain campaign decisions. Campaigns use them to help make decisions as to where they need to send the big guns. Not sure why you think this is so strange or such an omen of ill.

Smarter people than me have been saying that the Trump campaign would use fake polling to create fake tightening in polling averages. Try reading a Stuart Rosenberg article on the subject, and then you might not need to worry so much about internal polling.

internal polling. Why is Trump campaigning in Detroit and not in the Republican areas of Michigan? Does their internal polling tell them they have the EC locked up and they are they going after the popular vote now? Why are we campaigning in places like Pittsburgh that we should have no problem winning? I am back at the spot I was before Biden dropped out it just seems like the enthusiasm, we had is not there.

Which is it?

The Dems are in trouble because they have Obama and Clinton on the road or they are in trouble because of a lack of enthusiasm?

I have as much, if not more enthusiasm as I did when Kamala first came out. And honestly I wanted Biden to stay in but Kamala just blew me away and she still does

At least she's not a dementia ridden old man, audibly farting while standing at his rally podiums, who doesn't know where he is or who he's talking to.

They're bringing Obama and Clinton out to kick up enthusiasm because it's a problem.

I don't agree with the premise that means they're losing. I do think they're targeting specific demographics with these high-profiled surrogates but that's typical of every election. In 2012, Obama used Bill Clinton literally everywhere. It wasn't a sign he was losing, though.

To their other point: Democrats will campaign in areas where they need to run up the score, so of course they're going to hit Pittsburgh and Philly.

Obama did in 2012 too.

I do think the poster has a valid point about Trump's schedule. It's a weird one. Why he's focusing on California and New York, where he'll hold rallies, doesn't make sense, even if you factor in that he's hoping to help down-ballot Republicans (holding a rally in MSG in Manhattan isn't going to help many Republicans in that area - but Long Island or Stanton Island makes more sense).

Is he doing it because he's confident he has the swing states locked up and is working to drive up support to win the popular vote?

As for Detroit, that could be explained fairly easily: he's trying to blunt as much of Harris advantage there as possible. Even if he narrows her winning from say 75% to 70% in that area, it could flip the state.

But yeah, everything else from Trump makes little sense and doesn't fit his previous campaign patterns from 2016 and 2020... so I don't know what to think.

Latinos, and why President Obama specifically spoke to that group.

The problem stems from less motivation in those groups than in 2020, and frankly unless those Demographic groups come out in numbers at least equal to 2020 we will have problems.

Pollsters have so much data on all of us I have no doubt there are some who tailor their list for the response they want. 'Trust the vibe not the polls. ~Katie Phang

I'm going with that. This year feels much more like 2008 than 2016. Plus there's major Trump fatigue across the land. Without getting my hopes too high, I think we're gonna stomp that orange fucker into the ground.

from Ohio, it is like we are in another country now. It looks like PA is slowly becoming another Ohio. The EC vote is fucked up. Democrats are camped out campaigning 60 miles away in Pittsburgh and nobody comes here anymore.

Your post really showcases how we alter how we perceive the 2016 campaign.

There was a lot of energy for Hillary. She had massive crowds too. It's funny watching so many Democrats completely switch to using crowd size as proof of anything when, for four years, we mocked exactly that idea from MAGA because they couldn't fathom how Biden, who didn't have huge crowds (even in the primaries before COVID shut things down) could win 81 million votes.

You heard it yesterday from Trump where he was talking about the circles the campaign set up - he joked that they couldn't even fill the circles and yet he won the popular vote!

This was the crowd Hillary saw at her final rally in Pennsylvania eight years ago:



That crowd won her zero electoral votes out of Pennsylvania.

People need to stop using crowd size as proof of anything.

Romney saw a crowd of 25,000 in his final PA rally in 2012.

It didn't win him a single electoral vote out of that state.

I do agree Trump fatigue is real - but so is general fatigue toward the incumbent party. It's why this race is close. It'll be close through November. I think enthusiasm will give Harris the edge but it will be a narrow edge.

I don't see this like 2008. In 2008, Republicans were dispirited after eight years of Bush and a nominee that was not very inspiring to their voters.

I do think Democrats are enthused - but Republicans are much more enthusiastic than they were in 2008 and that makes any and all comparisons moot.

I think Harris has way more enthusiasm than Clinton did for a variety of reasons & that Trump fatigue far outweighs any incumbent fatigue, & that the only "republicans" who are more enthusiastic now than 2008 are the cult. I'm not taking the election as a given though.

But just pointing to crowds means nothing. Hillary never struggled packing arenas and large venues in 2016. She always had big crowds.

My point is that focusing too much on crowd size is misguided because it doesn't always equal victory. Hillary speaking to 100,000 people in Philadelphia the night before the 2016 election won her zilch. She didn't even carry the state.

Meanwhile, Biden's final Philadelphia rally is in front of a few thousand and he wins.

That was my point.

I'll also say that Republicans are way more united around Trump today than they were eight years ago. Republicans were not energized by Trump in 2016. I know a few Republicans who HATED Trump in 2016 and now openly support him.

It also explains why he did better in nearly every battle ground percentage wise than four years earlier despite losing. Like, Trump had a larger share of the vote in Arizona four years ago compared to 2016.

So, while enthusiasm is back up for Democrats since Biden dropped out, it's still higher for Republicans than 2016 and why this race is so close.

There is NO lack of enthusiasm. They, the Democratic Party, would be negligent for not using every available means to get the message out. Especially when you have Barack Obama at your disposal.

I share your optimism!

sent out the "big guns" like you say for the 2020 election too. For Biden. Obama was out there doing rallies for President Biden. And look at the outcome.

It's the big closing act. It doesn't mean the internal polls aren't good; it's SOP.

even if polls showed they were ahead.

It doesn't mean the polls are not concerning but it also doesn't mean they are bad.

I was confounded about the 'Biden circles'. It all makes sense, yet is peculiarly irrelevant, as Trump usually is.

He just can't get 2020 off his mind and live in the here and now.

A person who saw it for the fist time on a news reel at the movie theater.

BTW the Space-X 1st stages do indeed have "little wings". they are the flaps at the bottom that come out and do a little of the steering during the landing sequence.

and this is where trump's crazy mind is at?

thanks for putting up that link. i couldn't save most of the pics because of webp file but i was able to get a couple on google images

There are clearly GOP funded polls being incluided. But Quinnipiac is a legit pollster. That has me worried. Thsi is a close race.

Seems like WI, MI, and PA are very close now where as a few weeks ago Harris was pulling away in all 3.

Even legit pollsters will kick out a few massaged polls in favor of Trump to avoid intimidation and abuse from Trump cult members and their filthy-rich Nazi donors.

Also Trump and company probably pay the corporation or University a bit to do it, or their donors do.

In the end, the polling corporations and universities will shrug their shoulders and claim it was within the margin of error or an outlier. Their polls weren't done to help the Nazis, they were all scientific and above reproach. Polls are not crystal balls of the future. You can expect some amount of error.

Afterall the Quinnipiac poll comes from their public relations office and not the university. It's all about PR for them. Looking like you aren't screwing your filthy-rich Nazi donors and are fair, even at the cost of a little manipulation is priceless. It's what PR is all about.

Your opinion is noted.

Keith Olbermann (born January 27, 1959, New York City, New York, U.S.) is an American television journalist, liberal political commentator, and sportscaster perhaps best known as the host of the nightly news and analysis program Countdown with Keith Olbermann (2003–11) on the cable news network MSNBC.
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Keith-Olbermann
If you don't like him, that's your right. But, he IS a journalist.

Harris/Walz voting numbers should be high enough for the win because shithole and comrades will sue the shit out of the electoral system, therefore big guns need to come forth to campaign to secure the win.

It's called winning.

Fudging the polling numbers is the latest ploy the RWers have. Dishonesty is their middle name.

There is no way that the race is that close.

They are not real good at estimating what newly registered voters will do. And from all accounts new registered voters are high.

The same thing happened when Obama was running. New Voter registration was very high for both parties. And the polls were off. But Allan Lichtman got it right while everyone else got it wrong with Obama. He's predicting a Harris win.

the polls seriously, wasn't it for the mid terms the polls were really out of whack, was it when the predicting the red wave which turned out to be a blue one instead?

The only thing that counts if we all vote then there is no chance of it being close!!

In case you're short on time and have to skip to that point. But the entire podcast is excellent.

Personally I think if someone post an audio with attention to a specific segment they should post the time stamp. It just makes sense.

Thanks for posting anyway. Appreciate you sharing the positive imformation.

American Greatness,
Daily Mail, co/efficent,
Cygnal,
Orbital Digital,
Echelon,
Emerson - National, AZ, NC, PAFabrizio,
Fox News,
Insider Advantage,
McLaughlin,
Mitchell Comms - MI
The Napolitan Institute.
Noble Predictive,
OnMessage - PA
Patriot Polling - PA
Public Opinion Stratgies,
Quantus,
Rasmussen,
Redfield & Wilton,
Remington,
RMG,
SoCal Data a
The Telegraph,
Texas Gun Rights -
TX Trafalgar,
TIPP,
Victory Insights,
Wall Street Journal

"Look at all these great polls that had me winning by millions of votes, the Democrats stole another one
from you. Now you've been standing by long enough it's time to show them lying Liberals who controls
this Country, grab your ______ and go _______ if you love this Country"

Pretty much what I see him saying on election night.

I'm going to listen to Keith on this one. Every time I look at my PC all this BS comes up about Kamala's polls are decreasing all these crappy sites pop up spewing this stuff.

These are successful people in $500,000 houses. How could someone be that successful and still think he should run anything? I remarked to someone that I wasn't seeing the giant, 'block out the sun' banners and flags and a minute later we saw a few. Mostly small signs, but more and more showing up.

the only polls that count is the election day polls.
I have never doubted that VP Harris will win and win in a very convincing way.

Consider the size of the Dem crowds, the voter reg numbers,
and the early voting numbers...

all they point to is a win.

In my mind they are just BS. I don’t think this race is a close as they say it is. They are being used to depress the vote and I am not having any of that. That’s just me.

I go to bed shortly after 9:00 Pacific time Sunday through Thursday just to listen to Keith. Yup, he can rile you up, make you laugh, learn something new, but he is always entertaining. In the morning I will go back to review parts or play what I missed by falling asleep.

I go to sleep (always been a night owl) listening to Keith and I wake up and listen again. He is the proverbial breath of fresh air with regards to journalism.

Keith is one of the greatest story tellers.

Realizing that campaigns spend their money focusing on where they think they can win, a two or three point lean in one direction or another can direct where a campaign may go to be effective, or to waste its time. And with as many polls funded by right wing money as exist, I think the "tightness" of this election is not as close as we are being led to think that it is.

Check out where Harris and Democrats are spending their campaign haul that is not only signigicantly larger than Trumps, and has come from almost double the number of donors, which is a clear indicator of voter enthusiasm, but a sign that they see numbers telling them they can win in places they might not have thought reachable three or four months ago.

I think what we are seeing in the polls is the race between Biden and Trump that we had before Biden dropped out. That's the race the media wanted, and they're using a lot of the same data and information based on then, not now, especially to gauge turnout and voter enthusiasm. Republicans are resorting to tactics to try and steal the election, suppress the voter turnout and nullify ballots. What does that tell you?

I listened to KO. His discussion of the polls is within the first 15 ish minutes, not the whole podcast.
I believe he is correct. He dives down into the details of a seemingly demoralizing poll in Pennsylvania to show the top line result is tweaked as if the pollsters left out voters in Philadelphia!
Also, I have 2 observations about polling in the past 20-30 years. I think the polls the media talk about help create the horse race vibe even if the results are favoring the Dems. Dems have money to spend on ads, and since some media won't tell an accurate story about the two campaigns, the Dems will spend media ad dollars to get out their plans. So it benefits the media financially to create the horse race vibe.
Second, I do think these "polls" are meant to demoralize Dems. I believe we ARE making progress but some publicized polls don't reflect it. It's like that episode of Star Trek with the "Buttheads" who could create the illusion that the Enterprise crew wasn't making progress cracking a glass barrier when they really were.
Third, the number of states with reproductive rights on the ballot will send women and those who love them to the polls. I don't answer calls from people who won't won't leave a message. I'm uncounted in any Michigan poll.
I imagine the campaigns have much more accurate readings of the electorate beyond the polling industrial complex.
We just need to keep up the effort. When we fight, we win!

It will be close. Very close.

The lines will be very long, Historically long, and they'd be just as long if she was 12 points ahead. HOW BIG CAN WE MAKE IT would be the thinking. Saying it's a aqueeker is far too dangerous!

This election is likely to come down to just a few thousand votes between a handful of states. No one associated with her campaign thinks this is going to be anything other than a squeaker.

If Harris wins, it will be extremely close.

How big of a win do you think it'll be?

A blowout win?

He’s great at being entertaining but I don’t think he’s in the business of forecasting races.

But he has zero connections to make such a claim. He's not a pollster. He's not someone with a political background. He's worked on zero political campaigns so...he's just wish-casting at this point.

Follow those who are connected.

Here's a thread on just how close Wisconsin is - from the Chair of the state party:

Link to tweet