are undercounting young voters, who are breaking for Harris. I’m nervous as hell, but still hopeful.

I bounce around a lot and haven't really been in here in awhile. I have been shocked at the casual way the current state of the polls and other election indicators are dismissed as propaganda.

She led significantly in nearly all the polls right up to Election Day. .

There’s a lot of work to be done, no doubt, but it seems even some on the left have this strange need to feed on doom and gloom. Wonder why that is? There’s nothing wrong with being optimistic and understanding that there are no indicators that are 100% accurate or any better than tea leaves. In short, anyone who tells you their methods predict the future are damn liars.

538 had Trump at a 33% chance the night before the election. I was worried back then seeing what I saw. I am less worried in this one.

The HRC campaign wrote off the "blue wall" states as a "given", while countless low-motivation voters who would have otherwise voted for Hillary stayed home, believing she had it in the bag.. This time around, the Dobbs backlash is still very much in effect, as virtually every special election since that SCOTUS ruling has seen the Democratic candidate over-perform polling expectations, as well as topping prior voting trends. And the much-touted "Red Wave" of 2022 turned out to be a dud. As a voting demographic, women whose long-standing reproductive rights have been revoked will prove NOT to have short memories. The dynamics of 2016 and 2020 (unlike the GOP, suspending large rallies and a very limited ground game due to COVID precautions) are no longer in effect. Presidential elections where the EC is involved are rarely if ever a sure thing, but this time around there is much to be hopeful about.

How'd that work out?

They night before the election, 538 had Trump at 33% chance of winning.+l

Remember Comey?
Now lets remember Roevember

And HRC's polling numbers were accompanied by widespread complacency that it was "in the bag". Millions of on-the-fence voters went with Trump as a "mild" protest gesture, not expecting to push him past the finish line, but aiming to to limit her margin of victory. Dismissing the "blue wall states" was a grave mistake on the part of the campaign.

Another myth that won't die. She was up 3.6% average and Trump had a nearly 30% chance of winning the EC.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Lots of revisionist history about the 2016 election around here.

Every election is different. Trying to predict the future from past data is not terribly accurate.

To make the averages close. Is he closer in the quality media/independent polls? Probably, in some of them at least. But it's a silly, clickbait headline without knowing how the quality pollsters have adjusted their methodology/LV screens to try to account for the hidden support he's had at times in past elections. I think honestly she's ahead by a little in the blue wall, tied in the 2 southern swing states, ahead in Nevada and behind in Arizona. But comparing his standing in polls to 16 and 20 is essentially meaningless imo.

1) The pollsters are already attempting to correct for the “hidden Trump vote” based on the previous 2 presidential elections. It’s there in your article. They’re overweighting republicans.

2) There are a lot more republican funded polls than there were in 2016 or 2020. It’s become a business for them.

3) The pollsters aren’t taking into account hidden Dem voters based on Dobbs. Republicans have consistently underperformed the polls since 2022…by very large margins.

That's precisely one midterm election as a data point, a totally different kind of election. The counter-argument is Trump significantly overperformed polling averages in 2016 and 2020, with the exception of Georgia, where he underperformed by just over 1 percent.

I’m counting elections since 2022 as well. Dem overperformance has been consistent and significant.

Also, Trump overperforming polls is why they’re now trying to correct for the ‘hidden” trump vote. Pollsters ARE trying to account for it.

If you want to be alarmed that’s fine. I’m not.

The presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 hinged on turnout, too.

In 2016, there was a lack of enthusiasm for Clinton among Democrats. The polls showed her ahead, but the dripdripdrip of attacks from the media, and 30 years of relentless attacks against the Clintons, and the Putin-funded attacks on her from the left, resulted in an anemic turnout. Trump won by a tiny margin in a few key states.

That lack of enthusiasm flipped against Trump in 2020.

I hope it flips against him again, but Putin is back with a lot of disinformation and now we have Musk, too.

I think this election could easily go either way. VOTE.

Are the honest pollsters getting a better handle on it?

Do not believe them. They are absolutely jamming shit up with junk polls and leaving out key areas such as urban areas.

The polls are awash is junk polling to buffer the decrease in Trump's support. If you recall the primaries, Trump was underperforming badly in Republican areas.

Rosenberg reported that out of 15 polls this past week, 12 were absolute garbage. Republican operatives are hoping to depress the enthusiasm and set a precedent for screaming fraud at the end of the day. This isn't a new strategy because they don't have any new strategies.

Our job is not to take the bait and continue to work like mad. This isn't 2016 or 2020 beyond the fact that MAGA World will do anything and everything to regain power. Dirty tricks are their forte.

Heads down. Eyes on the Prize.

Deeply disturbing that Trump has the level of support that he has when the election should be a no-brainer for Kamala. What jobs would you or I be likely to even be considered for if we had 234 felony convictions?! The fascist/strong-man mentality (and facts be damned) does not bode well for the future of the country...

Fortunately, can't see that happening at all.
Who the hell has gained him votes to cover his CRIMINAL CONVICTIONS and many waiting? voter losses?
Who the hell.... this could go and on and thus I can't see him close to winning this.

The press hasn't been KIND shall we say on him LATELY?

Toking frequently helps, YMMV.
I can't wait for this to be over and cut the need in half and get my tolerance off Snoop level.

These polls intentionally oversample Magats and undersample everyone else. They are not indicative of the true state of the race.

If you feel you have to do that, you've lost and lost bigly.

Polls are interpretted and weighted to correct them in rhe direction that the pollster believes to be more accurate. Or sometimes they are weighted in the direction that pollster or sponsor want to project. Today the largest media companies are more right-biased than ever. Look what happened to PBS and the New York Times. Once beacons of truth, they are now right wing mouthpieces. Fraud and lies are accepted normal business practices. Trump and the GOP have normalized fraud and lying for big media and large corporations.
In short, I believe the polsters are doing this too. Several major poll results have been debunked right here in DU. Also, please don't tell me to not be complacent and urge me to vote. There are no DUers who will be sitting this one out. Thank you.

as cover for the next coup attempt.

They will use different methods but the plan is the same.

We'd better be ready for this again.