And by how much in the EC ?

Oh yeah!

I refuse to click on any threads about the useless polls, I don't believe them at all, the only poll that counts is the ones on 11/05, election day.
I'm in agreement with you, VP Harris will win and win decisively.

Who he loses to, just gravy, tasty delicious beautiful gravy!

something that the RWer own corporate media and polling don't want the USA to know.

Ever read "How to Lie With Statistics?" I never pay attention to the polls.

Last edited Sat Oct 12, 2024, 04:20 PM - Edit history (1)

propaganda anymore.

11M sounds mahvelous to moi!!

and, surprise, surprise had Trump ahead... but this kind of crap is happening. Incompetence? sometimes... But I think there is a strong push by RW pollsters too show enough Trump-winning polls to support accusations of election "theft" down the road if (as I certainly believe/hope/pray) Harris wins.

Polls are just the horse-race bullshit that the MSM loves.

We know Harris has the superior ground game (unless Elon has secretly, magically created an efficient, effective GOTV operation with his billions), and those of us in the reality based community will have to accept the fact that we are flying blind and anyone who claims to know the state of the race or the odds (*cough* Nate Silver *cough*) is lying.

but also a bit nervous because of how many gullible people out there.

posts.

I have a good 6th sense about 2024 unlike 2016 when I knew something was very wrong.

Kick ass, vote, and beat that hollowed excuse for an upright (barely) homosapien. I’d like to carbon date his ass out of existence - but only after he serves at least 1 year in prison, sees every bit of his wealth disappear and no one takes his calls or interviews him from prison prior to his death.

Not asking for much…

a few mil- it's gonna be a great big blue tsunami
so i raise you by 5 mil lol !

and hid any reference to polls in title of OPs.
That should help a bit.

This is my first time using this option.

All wanting to ask some questions about my views on the election. It is reasonable to assume I am not the only DEM voter who does not engage with any polling efforts, so it is reasonable to assume the polls are not representative of likely voters.

What we have seen, for years, is the willfully ignorant right wingers are generally thrilled to tell others what they are thiking. At this point, they are likely all lonely, having been written off by most everyone not maga. Lonely and insecure, they just gobble up the chance to respond, in detail and with amazing arrogance.

Polls? Nope. They are silly at best.

It won't be quite Obama 2008 numbers, (+9.5 popular/365 EC) but up there.
Most polls have become meaningless.

because Duh Donald lost the popular vote by two points in 2016 and four points in 2020. Triple double down, you all!




Rocknation

When we had a landline, I use to get multiple phone calls. I get none now. So you have to look at that data and think about those who still have landlines. Who are they? Where do they get the data? You can't trust the polls put out by the media. The media has divided us as well. There is no unbiased poll out there.

It will be tsunami a blue one.....

we don't need that. We know we're going to win big on popular vote. VP Harris is very popular, and she's got some great folks campaigning with her!

One of the best things we can do now is give $$$ or phone bank in the swing states to bring the EV home.

So it is DEFINITELY in the interests of the orc-like lizard creatures on Wall Street and those nice billionaires to 'keep it close!'

But if you have heard of the concept of psyops, Wall Street and its GOP shills are working feverishly to create despair, worry, anxiety among the electorate, and I have heard on another thread here that right-wing pollsters have released 25 polls telling us Trump is winning.

This increases the texts and emails we get daily desperately asking for donations.

I do donate to selected races, but when I get emails like this it bothers me:

This campaign has me anxious enough without more scary “fake news”. Donate, volunteer, vote. And fight disinformation.

I'm totally with you

But I'm still apprehensive about it. I think that just comes from the trauma surrounding 2016 when so many of us thought it was in the bag until it wasn't.

I plan on asking for Election Day off from work so that I can process the news in the privacy and comfort in my own home (if it's bad), or celebrate the news (if it's good, which it very well could be).

I’m thinking around 10 million. And Im in red hell.

Heather Cox Richardson addressed the polls on a YouTube posted here just a few days ago. Said that the right is flooding…her words not mine, the market with RW polls that are making things look better for them. They do,it every time!

I have been click free since 2000.

Don't bother with them at all. I just scroll on by.

What I'm interested in is the evidence before my eyes,
that Harris/Walz are winning.

Yes, Republicans will do everything they can to cheat,
but this is going to be a big win!

Actual votes and actual GOTV efforts are what will get this done. Let’s all get to work and volunteer and donate to bring this home

Don’t care. They’re a bunch of noise. The only thing they’re good for is having a rough idea of the outcome, but, they aren’t really doing that either.

It's going to require a substantial congressional majority to prosecute, convict and remove the felons on the USSC and Republican members of various congressional committees. In both cases congress must, for posterity and the well-being of the nation, redefine good order, perjury and treason. The conduct of all elected officials is expected to be above reproach. It must be for government to function effectively. Therefore, the oaths of office our leaders pledge must be treated as a binding contract with real consequences upon proven evidence for violation of terms.

except to generate anxiety. VP Harris and our party are running a great campaign. Voting has started. It is with the people as to whether they wish to build a more perfect Union or return to savage ignorant dark age occultism.
I want the light and our candidate is shining a light for us to follow.

“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.
"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring

Too many posts of those sorts.

to do the right thing and despite their flaws, not to vote for a fucking FELON, a perennial liar and loser !

But I will still work to get Kamala Harris elected every day until election day !

...is unforgivably stupid and/or ignorant and/or hateful. Don't forget: Americans who couldn't even bother to vote to prevent a Trump presidency aren't worthy of trust either.

Having a bare minimum of voters necessary to counteract Trump supporters is not enough to create "trust", merely "Whew! Just barely enough brains and decency to save us until the next election!"

In a truly trustworthy America Trump wouldn't and couldn't become the Republican nominee, and as their nominee anyway, would be running an immensely safe 20-30% behind Harris, behind Biden before Biden dropped out, and even 10% behind any warm body with a pulse and a (D) after their name.

Fuck polls.

IMO

Question: So, how many polls does it take to screw a country?

Answer: Doesn't matter. Just so long as they're done by a complicit media!

It's a ploy to set us up for chaos galore when he gets trounced.

https://democraticunderground.com/100219559255

Leading in the poll's projection for November by 11 million votes. Can I say "and trending"?

Anybody questions the results I just shrug and say "you can look it up"

I believe it will be a landslide. Why? Not polls, but fear. The voters will vote for Harris out of pure fear. Fear of 2025, fear of a possible future Vance presidency, fear of trump, vance will be much, much worse than trump. Trump is a fascist, Vance is a zealot. Just my opinion. We still must vote for our lives.

which are not clearly Republican ratfucking like Rasmussen or Trafalger--

however, no ONE poll is worth much, and many of them seem faulty this year.

It is my belief that we will outpoll the polls, when it comes to election day--

That in 2024, it is DEMOCRATIC voters who are "hidden" from the pollsters--
and our level of motivation to vote this year is something that no pollster's formula can discern the effects on turnout.

That is a big difference this election. IMO. Polls should be broken down more to be more accurate. I voted already and tire of it all too.

Sorry no link, but Harris leads in the suburban vote 47-40. I’m gonna guess she is crushing the urban vote, since she and Biden took 94% of the Detroit vote in 2020.

Are there really enough rural votes out there to counter that in the swing states? Maybe? My guess would be no but if anyone has info on the rural ratio in the swing please share.

followed breathlessly. I just ignore the threads, though. People can knock themselves out with them but IMHO too many are a waste of time.

Just vote and work like your life depends on it, because it does.

Their polls undersample Dems and Dem areas to give the false narrative that they're gaining ground. Ignore them and sites like Real Clear Politics and 538 that don't differentiate between legit and junk polls. It is just meant to demoralize us. Keep focused on getting Harris through to victory...we will do it.

538 weighs polls by reliability. So your claim that they don't distinguish between junk and legit polls is demonstrably false.

The Trump campaign has no way to influence public polls; their internal polls are not made public.

People tell themselves what they want to believe, despite a lack of evidence. We live in a divided nation. The election will be likely be close. How close is yet to be determined. I do, however, think Harris will win, and that is ALL that matters. I don't care about the margin of victory. I care that there is a victory.

They did this in 2022 to support the idea of a red wave and demoralize Dems. They're doing it again and Dems have to stop with the pearl clutching and keep working to elect Harris and other Dems. All this worrying and camping at each other doesn't benefit anyone except Republicans.

Instead, we focus on GOTV.

...that equates to "fighting the good fight". It's your coping mechanism, nothing more.

That's the way it looks to me. It explains Trump's total and complete meltdown.

Mid to late October is when I start keeping an eye on them, digging into data, and seeing where trends are going. Early voting is ramping up, and now things will start firming over the next two to three weeks.

It's the most interesting time in election season for me.

Polls are fine. But they should be taken in aggregate. The emotional roller coaster of "We're up! Oh no, we're down! Hurray, we're up! No, we're down and doomed!" is . . . not regulative. If that's how people are reading and responding to polls, it's probably for the best that they don't read them then.

But the conspiracy theories, the misinformation about past polls, the urban myths and group myths surrounding polling with threadbare factual foundation. Yeah, that's coping. People live to cope. And I get it. When emotions are all over the place, coping happens.

But polls are generally fine, and now we're entering spicy season. Pretty exciting for someone like me.

I can't hear those nasty polls!

I get requests to take a polls -- do I look that dumb! Every click, every call, every text is tracked so why would I ever give my personal beliefs to a pollster ?

But what I can’t figure out is, according to today’s NYT (and I’ve been hearing it on MSNBC), TSF is gaining support among blacks and Latinos. He’s a stone-cold racist. Are they stupid?

I'm trying to ignore the polls this time. Why? Because we're seeing a SLEW of right wing slanted polls being released right now. That always brings the aggregate down.

Whenever Steve Kornachi appeared on any MSNBC program, TV went on mute or off.