Simon Rosenberg
From Hopium:
- Harris up 4 in new NYT PA poll, early vote is encouraging, we have more money/vols
- Our Closing Strong intv w/Josh Stein on Helene recovery, battling disinfo, winning NC
- Trump’s message increasingly sounds like a desperate, losing one
👇

2:27 PM · Oct 12, 2024

Simon Rosenberg - Harris Up 4 in PA, Bringing The Joy To The Early Vote, Closing Strong With Josh Stein

Simon Rosenberg
Oct 12, 2024

Happy Saturday all. I’ve spent a lot of time writing various drafts this morning and didn’t really like any of them. So I am going to do something simple, not complicated as yesterday’s post had links to lots of video and analysis that you can watch, listen to and read this weekend. The link includes my Thursday night interview with Stephanie Ruhle on MSNBC where I provide an overview of where I think the race is now. As I say on air - I would much rather be us than them with a little more than three weeks to go.

So here is today’s big simple - the election is really close, and we just have to work as hard as we can to go win it, together.

Republicans have dropped over 60 polls into the battlegrounds over the last two weeks to try to move the polling averages towards them. They would not be doing all this if they believed they were winning the election. The national polls actually got better for Harris this week. The battleground states are close, and I share this data from the new Wall Street Journal’s set of battleground polls whose lead pollster is the same firm that works for Trump. Fom Murdoch and Trump we get:

Arizona - Harris 47-45%

Michigan - Harris 47-45%

Georgia - Harris 46-45%

Wisconsin - Harris 46-45%

North Carolina - Trump 46-45%

Pennsylvania - Trump 46-45%

Nevada - Trump 47-42%

In this Murdoch/Trump poll Harris gets to 278 and wins. I still believe based on my conversations with folks on the ground and just my years of experience that we are more likely to win NV and NC than Trump, and today’s NYT poll has Harris up 4 in Pennslyvania. Here is the graph from the NYT:

In Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris’s polling lead has been steady, though the state remains tight. Her advantage, 50 percent to 47 percent, falls inside the margin of error. But this was the third Times/Siena survey in two months showing support for Ms. Harris from at least half of the state. (Her lead in the poll was four percentage points when calculated using unrounded figures.)

/snip