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crimycarny

(1,549 posts) Sat Oct 12, 2024, 03:26 PM Saturday

Interesting article on how polls became "polluted" in October 2022 and how media fell for it

I stumbled across this article today when researching what polls were predicting in 2022, the whole “red wave” that never came.

It’s interesting that the polls started becoming “polluted” with partisan polls around October of 2022, just as they are now. Apparently one of the motivations for making a race seem tighter than it is, is to get your opposition to panic and spend money in races that are actually comfortable wins and not spend money in races that are tighter but winnable.

I think we’re seeing some of the same “pollution”. (As a preemptive strike against the inevitable “don’t get complacent!” warnings, no one is getting complacent—just found this article enlightening)

https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2022/12/nyt-admits-its-midterms-coverage-was-wrongly-wedded-to-a-red-wave-narrative.html

15 replies

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Interesting article on how polls became "polluted" in October 2022 and how media fell for it (Original Post) crimycarny Saturday OP

The corporate media is part of the problem.................. Lovie777 Saturday #1

You know, you are right. It does seem that this started appearing around the last election cycle, in 2022 most SWBTATTReg Saturday #2

This this this!!!! sheshe2 Saturday #3

Me either--especially now crimycarny Saturday #13

They have so much data on all of us CrispyQ Saturday #4

Manipulating "media" Wants to "fall for it".. Cha Saturday #5

hmmm, they must be worried that Harris could take North Carolina, Quiet Em Saturday #6

The Emerson poll shows Harris ahead with women. TwilightZone Saturday #7

Thank you. Quiet Em Saturday #8

This is where I read it Quiet Em Saturday #9

Weird. TwilightZone Saturday #11

And yet, Gallego is 7-10 points ahead Fiendish Thingy Saturday #12

And it's happening again right now. Nt Fiendish Thingy Saturday #10

You also have the "herd mentality" where the look at all the other polls and are afraid to be "wrong" kerry-is-my-prez Saturday #14

Simon Rosenberg -- of last 15 polls released for PA, 12 were right-leaning crimycarny Saturday #15

Lovie777

(14,427 posts)

1. The corporate media is part of the problem..................

Reply to crimycarny (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 03:32 PM

Saturday

SWBTATTReg

(23,891 posts)

2. You know, you are right. It does seem that this started appearing around the last election cycle, in 2022 most

Reply to crimycarny (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 03:33 PM

Saturday

noticeably.

As more and more media outlets obtain their news feeds from others, and don't have their own news crews gathering the news anymore, this source is bound to become tainted, and soiled w/ overly broad contamination by one party or the other trying to inadvertently contaminate reporting.

Maybe all polling, etc. should be done by independent agencies in total, w/o the taint of outside money contaminating the whole data gathering arena. Politics, especially by djt and his thugs, has become soiled and dirty.

sheshe2

(86,651 posts)

3. This this this!!!!

Reply to crimycarny (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 03:33 PM

Saturday

I don’t pay attention to polls. Never have.

Thank you 😊

crimycarny

(1,549 posts)

13. Me either--especially now

Reply to sheshe2 (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 04:29 PM

Saturday

In the article I posted there is a screenshot of FiveThirtyEight's polling for the Washington Senate race between Patty Murray and Tiffany Smiley. FiveThirtyEight polls showed the race as essentially a tie from October to November (right before the election). Murray won by 14 points!

It's all a way to try and rig the game. Journalists have become so lazy (and more interested in a horse race) that polls are completely unreliable these days.

CrispyQ

(37,878 posts)

4. They have so much data on all of us

Reply to crimycarny (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 03:35 PM

Saturday

I totally believe there are bad players who skew their poll audience for the results they want.

Cha

(303,936 posts)

5. Manipulating "media" Wants to "fall for it"..

Reply to crimycarny (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 03:37 PM

Saturday

Quiet Em

(532 posts)

6. hmmm, they must be worried that Harris could take North Carolina,

Reply to crimycarny (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 03:39 PM

Saturday

and a few others like Arizona. That Emerson Arizona poll was odd. It showed Trump winning women. I found that very odd considering Arizona wants to take women back to the 1800s.

TwilightZone

(27,238 posts)

7. The Emerson poll shows Harris ahead with women.

Reply to Quiet Em (Reply #6)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 03:51 PM

Saturday

Here's the full poll data, including crosstabs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FVfn-1oaLtOObkwACgt_Imsvf7jgVEdo/edit?gid=591937521#gid=591937521

Harris is ahead 238-226 with women in AZ. Row 22, Column HG, on the AZ crosstabs tab.

Quiet Em

(532 posts)

8. Thank you.

Reply to TwilightZone (Reply #7)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 03:57 PM

Saturday

I must have misread the article this morning. It was a Newsweek article so I suppose they could have been wrong as well.

Quiet Em

(532 posts)

9. This is where I read it

Reply to TwilightZone (Reply #7)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 04:04 PM

Saturday

AZ: men break 49% to 47% for Trump, and women break 50% to 47% for Trump.

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-state-polls-mixed-movement-across-swing-states-shows-dead-heat/

TwilightZone

(27,238 posts)

11. Weird.

Reply to Quiet Em (Reply #9)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 04:08 PM

Saturday

50/47 is the correct ratio, but it should be for Harris and not Trump.

Looks like a typo on their summary.

To your point, even 50/47 is still way too close for comfort.

Fiendish Thingy

(17,779 posts)

12. And yet, Gallego is 7-10 points ahead

Reply to Quiet Em (Reply #9)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 04:10 PM

Saturday

I am not convinced by Emerson’s numbers.

Fiendish Thingy

(17,779 posts)

10. And it's happening again right now. Nt

Reply to crimycarny (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 04:08 PM

Saturday

kerry-is-my-prez

(8,897 posts)

14. You also have the "herd mentality" where the look at all the other polls and are afraid to be "wrong"

Reply to crimycarny (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 04:32 PM

Saturday

That is a very real thing.

crimycarny

(1,549 posts)

15. Simon Rosenberg -- of last 15 polls released for PA, 12 were right-leaning

Reply to crimycarny (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 04:55 PM

Saturday

Simon Rosenberg, mentioned in the article I posted as calling out FiveThirtyEight in 2022, posted today that of the last 15 general election polls released for PA, 12 have been from right/GOP affiliations.

Link to tweet

Frustrating how the GOP continues to skew and distort and the MSM helps them do it.

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