They are still owned by GE right?
What story is best for shareholders.

I see no reason to believe it isn't a tight race. I don't think it's tied but if Harris leads by 3-4 points nationally, which I think is probably accurate, the law of averages suggests at least one poll will show the race tied.

If a poll has a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of +/- 3% then there is a 1 in 20 chance that poll result will, in fact, be outside that margin of error. There’s a higher probability that it will be near one of the extremes of the MOE. Ideally, the probability distribution is Gaussian so the most likely value is the mean of the distribution, which is the number that gets reported. But there’s only a 45% chance of the mean being a candidates actual level of support.

And when polls are talked about as being accurate, that means the election was within the margin of error of the poll. That’s a problem if the MOE is 3% but the election was decided by less than that margin.

In a tight race, you're likely to have polls that will show a candidate either tied or down.

No one should be surprised that one poll has Harris and Trump tied.

Unless people believe Harris is going to win this race by 10+ points - which she won't.

In the polls due to assumptions pollsters are making about who is going to vote. But we won’t know that until the results are in after the election.

Love your username!

She’s still leading. Go volunteer. Go phone bank. Go GOTV. Donate, if you can, to Kamala or a Democrat in a Blue Wall state.

We can and should win this!!

And it’s a sample of 2700 compared to 1000 for the NBC poll. Obviously NBC isn’t going to talk about a competitors poll.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/national#google_vignette

Concern noted.

They sure were common in 2016.

Either disregard it or read it. You think they are lying? What purpose would that serve? This angst over polls is over the top. You all feel like you have to declare them corrupt when you could just ignore them, or put them in context with other polls. It's only one poll.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/different-turnout-models-change-nbc-news-poll-results-rcna175096


How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results
A few percentage points of difference in turnout by gender or education can produce very different results, both in election polls and in elections themselves.


2024 Election
How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results
A few percentage points of difference in turnout by gender or education can produce very different results, both in election polls and in elections themselves.
Trump Harris Presidential Debate
Former President Donald Trump shakes hands with Vice President Kamala Harris during a presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia on Sept. 10.Saul Loeb / AFP - Getty Images


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Oct. 13, 2024, 7:00 AM MDT
By Ben Kamisar and Mark Murray
Close elections always come down to turnout. And while there remain a lot of unknowns ahead of November’s presidential election, one thing seems almost certain: It’s going to be close, at least in many of the key states that will decide the election.

So the bipartisan polling team behind the NBC News poll, Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates, devised an experiment.

What happens to the ballot test in NBC News’ brand-new national poll when you assume a turnout model that benefits the Democratic Party versus one that favors the GOP?

The results won’t be much of a surprise. But the exercise is instructive, showing how relatively small shifts in the demographic makeup of the electorate could prove important in a close election.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied on the head-to-head ballot in the new October NBC News poll results, at 48% each.