Internal GOP polling memo says Senate Republicans are still behind in key races

Republicans have a modest but durable lead in Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has trailed Republican Tim Sheehy in recent public polling.

In Ohio, Brown has dropped 7 percentage points since August but is still leading Republican Bernie Moreno by 6 points as of mid-October, and Moreno is running 8 points behind Trump.

The group sees tightening races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) just 2 points ahead and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) just 1 point ahead in October surveys.

Open-seat races in Michigan and Maryland are moving away from the GOP, with former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan down 7 points in the group’s last two polls and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) growing her lead between September and October.

The memo warns of two defensive problems: In Texas, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is only up 1 point in the latest poll, and Law describes Nebraska as “a serious trouble-spot” where they are polling to “assess whether intervention is necessary” to help GOP Sen. Deb Fischer. (The incumbent released a poll last week showing her up 6 points.)


https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/13/senate-republican-poll-memo-00183570