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H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 02:27 PM Oct 14

For the Win

"Yesterday I dared to struggle. Today I dare to win." -- Bernadette Devlin


Four years ago, I was invited to participate in an internet group of people who were -- and still are -- opposed to the felon. At that time, I was the first male in the group, though now it is about 20% male. Yesterday, a number of that forum's members expressed anxiety over VP Harris's chances of winning the election. This included both female and male members, as did the responses that expressed confidence in victory.

I think that it is normal to be nervous. As Cus D'Amato pointed out, both the hero and the coward feel the same nervous feelings before going into a fight. That nervousness is like a fire. The hero uses the fire to heat their house, while the coward is consumed by the flames. I suppose that it is fair to say that I am neither a hero or a coward, as I do not feel "nervous" about many things in life, including this election.

Friends on that forum were focused on polls. In 2016, of course, Democrats were confident that Clinton would soundly defeat the felon, based upon polls. Four years ago, many of the same friends on that forum were nervous about Biden's chances of victory -- due to polls. There, like here on DU, I said Joe would win by 7 million votes.

I think of polls as generally being about as accurate as television commercials for what McDonald's suggests is food. Perhaps this is due to my father's teaching me to keep track of numbers from elections back wen I was a young teenager. Use that plus the political climate -- is it much the same, or has there been a change in the direction the winds are blowing -- to determine which candidate will likely win. This formula has value in every election contest, from local to presidential.

There were three factors in our 2016 loss that do not get the attention that they deserve. This is because emotions tend to countermand reasoning. However, in 2016, a surprising number of white women, for a variety of reasons, voted for the felon. Second, black women, who I consider the most important sub-group in our party, sat out the election in significant large numbers. The third factor was that young voters, as happens from time to time, tended to not feel connected to voting in large numbers for the candidate who actually represented their best interests.

I am not suggesting that Hillary Clinton was responsible for these things. I do think that her campaign failed her, largely due to over-confidence. I think they were convinced that traditional republicans would not vote for a maniac ...... proving that they were unfamiliar with my father's teaching that republican voters are human sheep that vote for who they are told to. I'll remind people that Liz Cheney voted for the felon in both 2016 and, more importantly, 2020.

I think that the Harris campaign is doing a much better job than was done in 2016. Again, I am not comparing our party's candidates in the contests, just the campaign. I do not see overconfidence on the Harris campaign's part, for example. More, the winds took a strong change in direction when the christian-right majority on the Supreme Court overturned Roe. Add to this the felon's madness has become more concentrated, and thus less appealing to independents. And to top it off, young female voters -- including those too young to have voted in 2020 -- will be voting in significantly high numbers this time.

The electoral college is obviously a factor. And so is the organized republican to help the felon "win" in several states. But when we look at numbers, starting in 2018, through 2020 and even 2022, the republicans have not done as well as they anticipated. Because the felon is a ball & chain on their party.

In 2020, I said that Joe Biden would win by 7 million vote. In 2024, I anticipate that VP Harris will win by 9 million.

58 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
For the Win (Original Post) H2O Man Oct 14 OP
Your lips to the Goddess' ears. bluescribbler Oct 14 #1
I agree. H2O Man Oct 14 #3
Thanks H2O Man, needed some positivity....... a kennedy Oct 14 #2
Interesting. H2O Man Oct 14 #4
Thank you, thank you Easterncedar Oct 14 #5
We are in good position H2O Man Oct 14 #8
Yes. Right as always! Easterncedar Oct 14 #11
I like that! H2O Man Oct 14 #24
I'm nervous Cirsium Oct 14 #6
Right. H2O Man Oct 14 #9
Well done! ananda Oct 14 #7
Thank you. H2O Man Oct 14 #10
From your lips angrychair Oct 14 #12
Thanks! H2O Man Oct 14 #25
Love it malaise Oct 14 #13
Thank you! H2O Man Oct 14 #26
Recommended. PCIntern Oct 14 #14
Right. H2O Man Oct 14 #27
This always pops up in my head. multigraincracker Oct 14 #15
Classic! H2O Man Oct 14 #28
I once saw an original of that front page. greatauntoftriplets Oct 14 #33
Did Dewey call for armed insurrection? Easterncedar Oct 15 #52
K&R spanone Oct 14 #16
Thank you! H2O Man Oct 14 #30
Last night we were at my daughter's house.... spanone Oct 14 #44
That's a good sign! H2O Man Oct 15 #54
Kick. ... littlemissmartypants Oct 14 #17
Like Simon Rosenberg always says Moebym Oct 14 #18
A huge thank you H2O Man Oct 14 #31
❤️ littlemissmartypants Oct 14 #48
I'm neither hero nor coward... slightlv Oct 14 #19
Right. H2O Man Oct 14 #34
The number of women and people who love them slightlv Oct 14 #43
Very good! H2O Man Oct 14 #45
Thank you! Blaukraut Oct 14 #20
And thank you! H2O Man Oct 14 #35
Thank you for this cogent and rational observation. Bumbles Oct 14 #21
I agree. H2O Man Oct 14 #37
I grew up in Saranac Lake. In 1969, my father ran for Congress in the very Republican Adirondack region, Bumbles Oct 15 #49
Nice! H2O Man Oct 15 #53
It was very exciting. He had served in a number of Democratic administrations starting with Roosevelt/Truman, Bumbles Oct 15 #57
We need to watch out when Harris wins for 2028 because Latino and Asian voters are registering Republican. GoneOffShore Oct 14 #22
Right. H2O Man Oct 14 #38
H2O, evolves Oct 14 #23
Thank you! H2O Man Oct 14 #39
That's a good guess. I'd say it is more accurate than any current polling data, though there are polls that show her lees1975 Oct 14 #29
Great point! H2O Man Oct 14 #40
Well thank goodnesss you wrote this today Saoirse9 Oct 14 #32
Yes, H2O Man Oct 14 #41
That is how I deal with it too Saoirse9 Oct 16 #58
Thanks for your optimism. greatauntoftriplets Oct 14 #36
Thank you! H2O Man Oct 14 #42
From your lips to God's ear. Vote. Joinfortmill Oct 14 #46
Vote! H2O Man Oct 14 #47
Dear H2O Man, hwmnbn Oct 15 #50
Thank you! H2O Man Oct 15 #55
A coward dies a thousand times Easterncedar Oct 15 #51
The felon has done H2O Man Oct 15 #56

bluescribbler

(2,266 posts)
1. Your lips to the Goddess' ears.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 02:35 PM
Oct 14

I have a good feeling about the election, too. Not so good a feeling about the aftermath leading to January 20.

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
3. I agree.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 02:42 PM
Oct 14

The felon is spreading the seeds of violence. These will bloom in the months after the election. People need to exercise situational awareness in the post-election season.

a kennedy

(32,295 posts)
2. Thanks H2O Man, needed some positivity.......
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 02:41 PM
Oct 14

I’m still really thinking the Repubs that don’t like tRump will come out and vote for Harris/Walz in pretty large numbers…..he just can’t win, and I think these Repubs will be the deciding factor. JMHO.

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
4. Interesting.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 02:45 PM
Oct 14

I think that the independent voters will provide a significant difference this year. I do not think that the felon has gained ground there. But obviously I welcome republican votes. And that includes those who left their party in recent years, due to disgust with the direction their party has taken.

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
8. We are in good position
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 03:23 PM
Oct 14

to stomp the heck out of the maga movement. But the struggle will continue.

Easterncedar

(3,636 posts)
11. Yes. Right as always!
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 03:46 PM
Oct 14

I am not entirely unsympathetic to those who talk of leaving the country if the worst happens, but I think those who can should stay and fight. Heck, even if the best happens, there are plenty of causes to keep fighting for.

I heard an indigenous woman on NPR today (sorry I didn’t catch the name) saying she wanted to be a good ancestor for the next generations of ancestors. It’s a valuable perspective.

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
24. I like that!
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 08:43 PM
Oct 14

The traditional Iroquois teach that one should think of seven generations in the future.

My older daughter's in-laws, from Denmark, tell me that if the felon wins, I would be welcome there. I know my daughter likes it there. But I am too old and far too stubborn to leave this country.

Cirsium

(1,121 posts)
6. I'm nervous
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 02:57 PM
Oct 14

I am not nervous about the Harris/Walz ticket getting the most votes. I am nervous about the escalating threats to the poll workers and to the electoral process.

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
9. Right.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 03:27 PM
Oct 14

From the reports today on threats to FEMA workers by a militia, I think it is safe to say that a violent response to democracy is at hand. And that includes threats to poll workers and voters.

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
25. Thanks!
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 08:49 PM
Oct 14

If I am wrong, of course, I will blame my late father! (grin) On a serious note, I find myself thinking about what Dad would say about the felon. He was a life-long Democrat, as was his father who came here from Ireland. Dad had a strong dislike for Nixon, but was sad to see that a US president would sink so low as to engage in the series of crimes known as Watergate. Same with Reagan & Bush with Iran-Contra.

And he would be furious that, according to the USSC, these criminals could not have been prosecuted, because their actions were taken as president.

PCIntern

(26,993 posts)
14. Recommended.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 03:59 PM
Oct 14

There are a whole host of factors which did not exist the last time he lost. In a way, he’s right: Biden didn’t “win”, all those people voted to keep Trump out, because he and his presidency were horrifying.

But now we have 34 felony convictions, 1/6, indictments galore, horrible campaign statements, senility, disappeared wife, threats to use the military against American citizens, and lots lots more. He’s gonna lose big.

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
27. Right.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 08:53 PM
Oct 14

The republican "leaders" know he is a ball & chain on their party, but they are afraid to cross him. Yet because so many voters are motivated to vote against the felon, it hurts them down ticket. There is a price to pay for cowardice.

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
28. Classic!
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 08:55 PM
Oct 14

Thank you so much for that! I remember seeing that picture when I was young. Always loved it!

greatauntoftriplets

(176,977 posts)
33. I once saw an original of that front page.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 09:14 PM
Oct 14

So impressive to a young j-school grad who also happened to be a Democrat.

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
30. Thank you!
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 08:58 PM
Oct 14

I think we will not only win, but we will crush the felon. It's interesting to consider what the republican party will do after that. I suspect that shitheads like Matt Gaetz will try to be the next felon, but hopefully more intelligent ones will dare to end the madness. That might result in some primaries, but they need to do the right thing.

spanone

(137,655 posts)
44. Last night we were at my daughter's house....
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 09:58 PM
Oct 14

she lives in a working class area of Nashville, tn. known as East Nashville (North area)
We saw 2 trmp signs and 21 Harris/Walz signs....I'm not worried.
I believe the people know exactly what's going on.

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
54. That's a good sign!
Tue Oct 15, 2024, 12:53 PM
Oct 15

I think that I first heard Nixon talking about "the silent majority." Of course, at that time, I was opposed to anything that crook said. But it has come to mind this election season. I think that the majority of citizens are tired of the felon's shit.

littlemissmartypants

(25,841 posts)
17. Kick. ...
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 04:19 PM
Oct 14
Action conquers fear.


GOTV! Jen O'Malley Dillon (via KamalaHarris.com)

Jen O'Malley Dillon became the first woman to manage a winning Democratic presidential campaign in 2020, before her appointment as President Joe Biden's deputy chief of staff.


THREE DAYS! NC VOTES OCT. 17TH


Here’s what we need to do between now and Election Day:

●Reach every single undecided voter and make sure they know Kamala’s vision, values, and life story -- and the night-and-day contrast between her record of fighting for middle-class families and Donald Trump’s record of fighting for himself and his rich friends.

●Continue to build relationships with people who support us but may not have decided whether to vote, particularly people of color and young people. It’s on us to earn, not just count on, their vote, and make sure they know when, where, and how they can do it quickly and easily.

●Peel off Trump supporters where we can. Picture that person in your life who voted for Trump in 2016 or 2020 even though they know he’s dangerous and a liar, and who hasn’t yet been convinced that, yes, it’s ok to turn the page. There are pockets of these voters in critical states, they are gettable, and we will get them.

●Convert Harris supporters into volunteers and grassroots validators for this campaign. This is where you come in.

What you can do:

I’ll be blunt: We need more supporters to raise their hands and say they’re ready to volunteer, and we need those who’ve already done so to keep their foot on the gas. We know we have the best candidate. But without grassroots energy we could very easily lose this race and find ourselves facing another four years of Donald Trump. A Donald Trump that is more extreme than ever before.

We cannot let it happen.

There are lots of ways to volunteer -- on the ground, on the phone, even on social media -- and our team is here to make sure it’s a smooth (and fun!) experience.

VOLUNTEER HERE:
We need you!

LFG!
GOTV!!


❤️ pants

Thanks for sharing this, MM. ❤️

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
31. A huge thank you
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 09:04 PM
Oct 14

for this! It is so much appreciated!

I do not see any benefit in wasting energy. Being nervous uses up so much energy that can be used in a positive way. Being limited as I am, I view everything in the context of boxing. I remember circa 1972, being at the Golden Gloves in Troy, NY. Cus D'Amato was downstairs in the locker room. At the time, he was managing top middleweight contender Eugene "Cyclone" Hart, who asked him if he wanted to go upstairs to watch the fights? "No," Cus said, "I can see everything I need to here." That always stuck with me.

slightlv

(4,416 posts)
19. I'm neither hero nor coward...
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 04:35 PM
Oct 14

but I AM nervous... not over the election. I honestly feel we're gonna stomp the traitor into the sewage from which he rose. I AM nervous, however, about the election aftermath. SCOTUS, Congress... I'll use those anxious feelings, should the worst come to pass, to make my voice heard with the millions of others until what was plotted and proceeded is called back and undone. Million woman march? Imagine 5 million+ women, plus the men and children who love them!

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
34. Right.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 09:17 PM
Oct 14

I think we will win in November, and that will lead to the tougher struggle ahead. And exactly as you note, that includes with Congress and the USSC. I think it will include both houses of Congress, and a large segment of the federal courts. This, even with us in control of the White House, House of Representatives, and the Senate. Yet we will be in a better position to make progress.

My late friend Rubin Carter used to say that true democracy and social justice requires constant struggle. It's been fifty years since he first said that to me. I have seen no evidence since then that he was mistaken.

I loved the January 21, 2017 Women's March. If memory serves me correctly, about a half a million marched in DC in opposition to the felon. I can't remember the totals across the country. But it was powerful.

slightlv

(4,416 posts)
43. The number of women and people who love them
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 09:53 PM
Oct 14

Will stretch across DC and every major city in the country. We'll be at statehouses and capitols. I am hopeful, tho that work being done by Marc Elias and hundreds like him will kill a lot of what T would try. Remember the arc of the universe. We've been working on a diverse, inclusive, fair world for decades... And we old hippies just won't give up! Remember Power to the People? It may be time for us oldsters go teach the Young ones some of methods we used that went beyond marches and sit ins. Some of us women were fairly aggressiveness towards securing our rights in 70's... Some us were completely audacious! Not that anyone would give a look nowadays at stripping off my clothes and slinging my bra at someone! Lol! I'm just a crazy old cat lady, ya know!

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
45. Very good!
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 10:00 PM
Oct 14

A lot of my friends are old hippies. Salt of the earth. I was a YIPPIE!, getting high with Abbie Hoffman, but also talking with Angela Davis and the Berrigan brothers. Those were the days!

I don't have as much energy as I did back then .... heck, not as much as I did a few years ago. I haven't spoken on college campuses since the 2016 election. But I enjoy the chances I get to talk with my (now adult) children's activist friends.

Blaukraut

(5,920 posts)
20. Thank you!
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 04:50 PM
Oct 14

I'm a natural worrier, so this election has me wanting to jump out of my skin with anxiety. However, I do the opposite of doom scrolling. I look for posts like yours because they are like valerian tea for the soul. Thank you

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
35. And thank you!
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 09:24 PM
Oct 14

I know that a large number of my family and friends are very nervous. Heck, I just got off the phone with my cousin. We talk every day, with him asking if I'm sure that VP Harris will win? I am. I think one of the things that unsettles him is watching the news. I tell him that if they reported that Harris is going to stomp the shit out of the felon, people wouldn't spend hours each day glued to the tube.

In the 1940s, a lady who lived in this house planted large flower gardens around the lawn, which was then about an acre. Among the plants still growing is a nice patch of valerian!

Bumbles

(267 posts)
21. Thank you for this cogent and rational observation.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 04:52 PM
Oct 14

It's so easy to be unsettled and begin spiraling down. I think all reasonable, cognizant Americans, and many around the world, are suffering from PTSD due to Trump's ever-presence while sucking up all the oxygen.

Remember to breathe!

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
37. I agree.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 09:36 PM
Oct 14

The felon and his cult have done significant and long-term damage to our country. There is no level of low they will not take, and people suffer from being exposed to their actions. The media holds much responsibility for covering so many of his speeches.

I am fortunate in that, although I'm surrounded by maga cult neighbors in rural, upstate New York, I can spend time in nature, without any contact from other people. And in what I consider a good sign, only two places within a mile in any direction have republican campaign signs out. So the few times per month I leave my property, I find that encouraging.

Bumbles

(267 posts)
49. I grew up in Saranac Lake. In 1969, my father ran for Congress in the very Republican Adirondack region,
Tue Oct 15, 2024, 09:48 AM
Oct 15

inside the Blue Line, now Elise Stephanik's seat. He lost by a very slight margin.

I live in Maine now, in the blue part of the state. I see many fewer signs for the felon. One home that used to have numerous signs on the chain link fence along the road has one limp, backward-hanging sign. Maybe that's a good omen for us.

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
53. Nice!
Tue Oct 15, 2024, 12:48 PM
Oct 15

It must have been exciting to have your Dad running for Congress!

Stephanik is, in so many ways, among the very worst people in Congress. She knows better. She's not stupid. And she wasn't a maga cultist in the felon'[s first couple years in office. But her ambition to gain power has resulted in her kissing the felon's ass.

Bumbles

(267 posts)
57. It was very exciting. He had served in a number of Democratic administrations starting with Roosevelt/Truman,
Tue Oct 15, 2024, 03:31 PM
Oct 15

and looked forward to serving himself. He would have been a wonderful representative to the House for the North Country He was a lover and promoter of the Adirondacks, having worked to get the Northway approved.

I often wonder how he would react to today's politics. Stephanik would appall him. When I saw her campaign office in Saranac Lake when the family gathered in August, I felt a not-normal-for-me extreme hatred towards her.

GoneOffShore

(17,635 posts)
22. We need to watch out when Harris wins for 2028 because Latino and Asian voters are registering Republican.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 05:05 PM
Oct 14

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
38. Right.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 09:38 PM
Oct 14

We deal with those issues between 2025 and 2028. They are definitely very important, but we will be in a position to deal with them.

lees1975

(6,090 posts)
29. That's a good guess. I'd say it is more accurate than any current polling data, though there are polls that show her
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 08:57 PM
Oct 14

winning by that much. You're pretty close.

The other thing we didn't have in 2016, or in 2020, was that all of the battleground states have since flipped to Democratic state leadership with the exception of Nevada and Georgia. But in Georgia, we won three senate elections in two years. In Pennsylvania, in 2022, the Democrats won a landslide.

I live in blue state Illinois, in one of its bluest counties, Cook. There's not a lot to do around here, so I join a group of folks who drive the thirty miles or so to Wisconsin, to help canvass in the counties south of Milwaukee. I did that four years ago and it was a good experience. So far this time around, the number of volunteers is considerably larger, we are hearing from different counties that Democrats are literally knocking on every door, and the "polls" we are seeing, from these events, indicates Democratic voter turnout will be significantly higher than it was in 2020.
"
And it's anecdotal, for sure, but a lot of the Republicans I know who voted Trump in 2020 are planning on staying home this time around, and a few of them are considering Harris. Most of those are Evangelical Christians, so maybe there's a message in that.

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
40. Great point!
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 09:42 PM
Oct 14

I also know republicans who voted for the felon, but are tired of him. Some were planning to vote for RFK Jr. If they do vote, I doubt it will be for the felon.

I have been encouraged by some things I've seen coming from evangelic christians, ranging from the environment, climate change, and the dangers the felon poses to our country. That's a positive sign.

Saoirse9

(3,823 posts)
32. Well thank goodnesss you wrote this today
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 09:09 PM
Oct 14

because my sister, who you may remember, was getting worried about the polls this afternoon. Rather than go into a long explanation that would have paled in comparison to yours above I got to take the lazy way out and I just sent her your essay.

Whew! I would be lying if I said I wasn't worried. After what we went through as a country we are all probably nervous.

When I get nervous I donate. Might not be loads of money but it makes me feel better.

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
41. Yes,
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 09:47 PM
Oct 14

of course I remember your sister! I'm still waiting for her to visit me. Please tell her to dump anyone she is currently seeing -- even if married -- as she has the opportunity to listen to my nonsense every day. And that I expect both of you to be here to celebrate Harris's victory.

When talking with my nervous cousin tonight, he said that he deals with it by donating to Democrats around the country. I like that he asks me which candidates he should donate to.

Saoirse9

(3,823 posts)
58. That is how I deal with it too
Wed Oct 16, 2024, 11:33 AM
Oct 16

Just did so this morning.

I have NEVER donated this kind of money to political campaigns. But this year it is a lot (for me).

Putting my money where my mouth is.

greatauntoftriplets

(176,977 posts)
36. Thanks for your optimism.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 09:24 PM
Oct 14

I try not to pay attention to the polls, especially not since they were so off in 2016. Sticking to that isn't always easy, though.

After obsessing about my Illinois mail-in ballot, it arrived last Friday and is already in the mail. Now I feel a great sense of relief, though not when I'm panicking.

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
42. Thank you!
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 09:49 PM
Oct 14

The polls in 2016 were terrible, I'll never forget that.

I mailed in my ballot a week or so ago. I have never been happier than having the opportunity to vote for Harris/Walz. It felt so good!

hwmnbn

(4,286 posts)
50. Dear H2O Man,
Tue Oct 15, 2024, 10:01 AM
Oct 15

Your posts always have a way of making me feel better and smarter.

Thank you...

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
55. Thank you!
Tue Oct 15, 2024, 12:54 PM
Oct 15

I'd like to think that my contributions to DU have some value. So I appreciate your kind words!

H2O Man

(75,771 posts)
56. The felon has done
Tue Oct 15, 2024, 01:01 PM
Oct 15

his very best -- or worst -- to inject fear and anxiety into the social atmosphere. This brings about hatred and a willingness to be at least okay with political violence in his cult. At the same time, it can bring about the third of the fight, flight, or freeze responses of sane people. And I do not think it is possible for Good People not to have those responses. Because I am not "normal" in any sense of that word, I am limited to "fight." And I mean that seriously.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»For the Win