So while the lead here is small, it's not swamped by the margin of error. Add on the idea (which I think is more than just wishful thinking) that Harris voters are more motivated and we have a better ground game, I'd say this is reasonably good news.

Or did you assign greater weight to polls with larger sample sizes? I don't know a ton about how this sort of thing is done but I'm guess one should give more weight to a poll of 2000 people vs one of 500 people, though I'm not sure by how much

But it is good to know she's ahead in all 8. That's a trend.

Probably because they don't run their own polls. They use Beacon Research and Shaw and Company and their polls are relatively reliable. They're #16 on 538's list out of about 300 pollsters.

Emerson has seemingly had a few polls that appear to have been outliers, but they're also usually reliable. They're in the top ten on 538 and are rated as slightly left by them.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/emerson-college-polling-bias-and-credibility/

Pollster ratings here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Cherry-picking polls is usually a mostly-pointless exercise unless only those with a clear data-based bias are removed.

Trump up by 2 nationally but Harris up 6 in the swing states? Sorry, but that makes no sense and they didn't publish any information to try to analyze why it doesn't make sense. I'm not accusing anyone of intentional bias, but that sure looks like a "bad" poll to me.

It's the nature of random sampling.

Yes, there are a lot of RW bullshit polls coming out.

But there are some alarmingly close polls coming out from reputable pollsters. Yeah, some (like the Fox one) really look like outliers as they are inconsistent with that pollster's other polls and prior results. But there are enough overall and enough consistency that we should not just dismiss the polls, or cherrypick away any that don't say what we want. Remember, random sampling will create blue leaning outliers too.

This is looking tight - very tight. Be alarmed and be prepared.

All showed a Harris lead between 3% & 5%. I honestly don't recall any alarmingly close national polls in the last week and a half (I don't consider the NBC poll showing a tie alarming because it was a poll of RV not LV. Harris has consistently polled better with LV). Sorry to disappoint you, but I'm not alarmed. I am (and hopefully will remain) cautiously optimistic.

And not national polling.

But I'm also a pessimist and worrier by nature too

but since that is where all the garbage right wing polls are showing up, it's hard work to try to wade through and figure out what to trust and what to ignore. If I simply just accepted all the swing state polls at face value, it would drive me crazy because the averages include the biased polls which skews them right - making things look worse than probable reality. That's why I focus on looking at the pollsters I know are reputable and focus on their swing state numbers. And while I'd agree there may have been a couple of those recently that didn't look too good, most of them have been more encouraging than discouraging - at least to me.

Long time no see

Perhaps Conservative Cave or Truth (cough cough) Social.

They've been hanging around trying to disrupt things.

and not one of us were polled.