Rendering the polls useless.

September 30 feels like a lifetime ago. Not quite a month but any sample period that exceeds a week shouldn't be taken too seriously.

Look at all the Republicans who have declared for Harris. The signage, especially stories of Trump signs coming down, sometimes replaced by Harris/Walz signs.

I know, signs don't vote but the polling is way off.

2016 and 2020 the pollsters are overcorrecting?

People are screwing with the numbers.

"Estimating" and/or "correcting".

...and if they're "correcting" anything, it's no longer a poll, which has no "correct" or "incorrect" aspect, just a count.

especially if they think their sample size is incorrect.

No polling organization can get a random sample that exactly matches demographics, political affiliation, and so on, so they adjust so that the results are representative.

Here's a primer on weighting and why it's necessary:

https://analythical.com/blog/weighting-data-explained

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219589585. The GOP have flooded the zone with so many biased polls that the aggregators' results are meaningless.

The reference post is actually this: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219589585

It's Bannon's "flood the zone with shit" method in action.

"The zone" is flooded with right-leaning or intentionally-slanted polls to make it look so close that, when trump loses, he can pull out his usual "any election I lose is rigged" shtick. "See how all the polls showed me winning? Even the failing NYT and WP!!11!!1!1!!2!@Q12"

And the media promotes it because they get their horse race so the can sell ads. In fact, they're likely hoping for "turmoil" after the election so they will get months or years more of lucrative clickbait with the never-ending freak show.

That is tight. Even with MOE, which can swing either way... too tight.

See above - so many polls have been commissioned or created by Trump-supporting entities that we can't rely on polling any more (if we ever could).

It's bananas to discount this poll because some right-leaning pollsters have flooded the averages with bad polls.

I think she may win on election day.

https://democraticunderground.com/100219589309

Read on here the other day that there are currently 12 rethuglican, "polls," getting attention. They're bullshit.

Last edited Mon Oct 21, 2024, 12:54 PM - Edit history (2)

....what do these numbers add up to in electoral votes?

Edit to add:

Arizona: Trump 49%, Harris 46% = trump 11
Georgia: Harris 51%, Trump 47% = n Harris 16
Michigan: Harris 49%, Trump 47% = Harris 15
Nevada: Harris 48%, Trump 48% = (tie for 6)
North Carolina: Trump 50%, Harris 47% = trump 16
Pennsylvania: Harris 49%, Trump 47% = Harris 19
Wisconsin: Harris 50%, Trump 47% = Harris 10

trump 27 Harris 60


Doesn't look like a "deadheat" to me.

https://www.masslive.com/politics/2024/10/harris-vs-trump-new-presidential-swing-state-poll-has-harris-up-8.html

Pick a poll, take your choice.

If we were writing a news story, we could line polls up to create any illusion we wanted. From Bloomberg, whose polls show her leading in 6 battlegrounds and tied in Georgia, to local news polls in each state showing her leading by anywhere from fractions of a percentage up to 8.

We'll know Tuesday, November 5th, maybe not until Wednesday or Thursday.

FWIW, my guess is nationally, she wins by 6%. She carries Wisconsin by 1, Michigan by 3 and Pennsylvania by 2. She carries North Carolina and Georgia by 1, Arizona by about 50,000 votes, or under half a percent, and Nevada by 2. She picks up Florida by 30,000 votes.

But can't have it not be a horserace, so let's average everything out to make it seem like Kamala wouldn't easily win the presidency if these polls mirrored the actual results.

No matter the margins, that is good news.

If GA was a lost cause, they wouldn't have been there so much lately. Their internals must show that Georgia is for the taking.

Basically only AZ and possibly NV flip from 2020, which isn't enough for Trump.

The commercials for the Orange shitstain far outnumber Kamala commercials. I am SO SICK of the commercials where Kamala wants prisoners to get sex changes, the other one how shes killing them without killing them, radical liberal, bla bla bla bla.

All so that some news outlet can proclaim A Dead Heat.

walk, run, fly and even CRAWL to the polls and VOTE (if we haven't already.) Bring a carload with us. Because we know damn well the MAGATS will.

GOTV!!!!!