It may look tight, this election. Remember one thing people are afraid to let others know who they will vote for.

trump and his maggots retaliate against everyone who is against trump. These poll takers are owned and controlled by trump fans.

So keep your vote to yourself, but go out and vote against this Brutal Dictatorship for government.

Let's not fall for the propaganda polls.

Has somebody else given them an A+?

This particular poll was done by the Shar School, who I’m not familiar with.

They’re not a red wave poll for sure, but these state polls have a very high MOE (3.9-5.0%), rendering the candidate leads statistically insignificant.

Last edited Tue Oct 22, 2024, 12:09 AM - Edit history (1)

Crapping on any good polls for Harris. Don’t recall you doing the same for polls that are good for Trump.

I’ve been warning folks not to trust the polling averages because they are including dozens of corrupt polls that are favourable to Trump.

Arizona seems to be slipping away which is not great but okay I guess as long as we get the Senate seat.

in most credible polls, that Harris would trail, at all. Three percent is the normal ticket splitting ratio in Arizona. If Harris were down by 3, as one, yes, one poll shows, it would not be reasonable to factor in a formula that has Gallego up by 11. Of course, that's just one poll in Arizona, among several others which have Harris tied, or leading anywhere from 1 to 3 points.

The political ad buys and activity the campaign organizes in Arizona indicates a bit different story. Democratic margins in Arizona have grown since 2016 each election cycle. Why would that not hold true this time around, given that over 450,000 people moved to Arizona since 2020, and a majority of those are Democrats? That's the same thing that is slowly flipping Georgia and North Carolina.

The right wing has been harping on people leaving NY and California to Texas Oklahoma etc. They aren’t aware that blue states can lose population and still vote overwhelmingly Dem.

One thing in NC people miss are the “half backs” NY NJ PA and midwesterners who moved to Florida to retire but have moved half the way back near where the are from. Much lower cost of living. Much less and cheaper travel for them or family to see each other.

** AND **

Abortion is on the ballot, so I think it will (should) make a difference.

I think he wins by 5.

Registered voters?

Likely voters?

I'll place it where it belongs in my file folder if you know what I mean.

The swing states are all either within the MOE or very close to it.

Counting chickens comes to mind. How about we do everything we can in the next two weeks first and celebrate when we actually win?

Much appreciated.

Well, we can't have that. Guess we'll just pop the champagne and skip out on the rest of it, since the election is in the bag.

Things have gotten pretty silly when suggesting that we do everything we can to help win the election is met with derision.

get out the vote efforts. When someone says they will do something and you repeat back to them that they should do what they said they would do, it's patronizing. Your effort to dampen enthusiasm is noted, however.

So this could mean all 7 swing states go for us.

What happened to Harry Reid's culinary union get out the vote efforts? I hope it's not as close as it seems.

Please do explain more about your political philosophy. You might be in for a surprise...and very soon!

What happened to the trolls back in the day who used to be a little subtle?

MOE’s of 3.9-5.0% renders these polls rather useless.

Because almost all of them will have at least a 2.0+ margin of error, which means you have to double it to find the actual spread, which means unless a candidate is leading by around five points or more -- which is very rare for a competitive swing state being polled by a reputable pollster -- then any such poll result will fall under your "rather useless" definition.

Which were between 3.9-5.0%

But yes, any margin that is less than double the MOE is not statistically significant.

That is the current state of polling.

With the current red wave manipulations, averages, and even trends (movement/momentum) cannot be trusted.

We will have to accept the uncertainty of not knowing the precise state of the race, but can feel confident with having a superior ground game and early voting numbers that confirm Dem voter enthusiasm.

And most all of those polls from reputable pollsters that have such small margins of errors almost never show a ~5%+ lead for any candidate, meaning they are just as meaningless based on your definition.

That’s why they’re called swing states.

Most reputable polls have MOE’s around 2.5-3.5% , although in cases like these WaPo polls, the sample per state is smaller, so the MOE is larger.

There’s no questioning the likely winner in polls of solid red or blue states, because, even with a 4-5% MOE, the margin is so large, it’s more than double the MOE, and thus statistically significant.

That just doesn’t happen in swing state polls.

And so, those of us in the reality based community who choose not to be manipulated by a broken polling system, accept the uncertainty that the swing states create, and focus on what is known- superior ground game, excellent legal team, encouraging early vote numbers.

And then we wait.

I was in my little booth with the sides up for privacy on 3 sides, and it backed up to an identical row of these booths. In the booth opposite me was a guy who was there to help a hispanic voter. The guy spoke perfect spanish, but the hispanic dude spoke good english, as well. The "helper" guy told him how to vote for each candidate. The hispanic guy was surprised when the "helper" told him to vote for ONE democrat: a guy he knew for county commissioner. The hispanic guy was really surprised, and said, "he's not a republican!", and the helper said "yeah, but he's a friend of mine, so we can vote for him".

I reported what I heard from one of the elections office workers there, and she said that as long as they signed a form, they can help someone to vote. "Help someone to vote" means tell 'em HOW to vote? WHO to vote for?

Thanks to the antiquated, deleterious electoral college, my vote won't count (except for state races).