General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNo, Jen Psaki, your numbers are wrong.
(She was just on The Last Word.)
Trump did win white women in 2020, but by 7 percentage points, NOT by 11 points as you claimed. And he won them by only TWO points in 2016 (47% for TFG vs 45% for H. Clinton), NOT by 9 points as you claimed.
See the Pew Validated Voter studies, not faulty exit polls or wherever else you got those numbers. For example, https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/ and https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/ .
Why does it matter? They were 41% of the electorate in 2016, larger as a bloc than white men, and 10 times the number of black men, on whom the media has recently focused. If Harris can move even a few percentage points of them, it's very consequential. And the numbers above clearly suggest that Democrats could win them this year, especially given Dobbs and other factors. For example, for white voters, education makes a huge difference (much less so for other groups) and the average education levels for white women (and others) continue to increase. See: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/educational-attainment.html .
Every voter is important, but it's also important not to misstate the numbers.
cilla4progress
(25,588 posts)something?
spooky3
(35,827 posts)which are more problematic than the Pew data set and methods.
cilla4progress
(25,588 posts)Will let her know!
spooky3
(35,827 posts)Skittles
(157,739 posts)spooky3
(35,827 posts)BaronChocula
(2,431 posts)who support this. This shouldn't be ok with ANYONE.
And we should keep shaming men AND women for supporting this.
Skittles
(157,739 posts)I'm just pointing out that women voting for a misogynist is especially sickening.
BaronChocula
(2,431 posts)What's bothered me for a loooooong time (before DU) is that progressive people ironically have a penchant for calling out any demographic that's not white male for being republican/conservative/tea bagger/maga when in fact the republican party is a party of and for white men. And white men never get called out by name in the same way.
I see people speaking in condescending terms about Palestinian/Arab Americans withholding support from Harris and saying things like "Arab Americans who support trump deserve what they get." Within the last 24 hours I saw one poster comparing black trump supporters to chickens for Colonel Sanders.
Trump's success is due mostly to support from white men. It's not small segments of various minority groups. He's not even supported by a majority of women.
It seems far more rare for people to go after white men for their poor judgment. After all, the majority of white men who vote for trump are not wealthy money hoarders. They too are voting against their own self-interest. It's time to call out the bulk of white men who support this nonsense.
Bear in mind, this is nothing against you in the least. I enjoy your posts and comments.
carpetbagger
(4,552 posts)I don't know which answer is more likely to be right, but that is probably the source.
spooky3
(35,827 posts)See the description on the Pew site. One reason for this is that Pew uses multiple sources, including public records, to validate survey results. Exit polls ask people as they leave the booth for whom they voted, with no other check. So people may or may not tell the truth about how they voted. And then, exit pollsters change percentages as they see fit. For example, if only 30% of the women they asked for info respond, but women are 51% of the voters, they may adjust the answers of those women upward.
There is a reason that former President Carter and others did not rely on exit polls when examining the fairness of other countries' elections. The results may be interesting and are available immediately, but the quality of the data suspect.
Self Esteem
(1,365 posts)Even your source has a MOE. It's not exact.
Maybe edit your original post.
spooky3
(35,827 posts)See the Pew site for the explanation as to why.
I am a social scientist who retired from a top university, so I know something about research methods.
Self Esteem
(1,365 posts)It's perfectly reasonable to use exit poll data.
spooky3
(35,827 posts)Heres my last attempt to explain. You do not rely on weak data when you have better studies and results available. Lets say Im a medical researcher who reports that mega doses of vitamin C cure cancer. But when you and other researchers examine my methods, they are very flawed. I didnt use a random sample, lots of people dropped out of my study, the vitamin C users also had healthier lifestyles than did any comparison group (if I even used one), I relied entirely on their self reported beliefs about whether they had cancer, rather than getting medical records or other hard data to associate with self-reports, etc., etc. etc. Anyone who would rely on my study when at least one much better one exists, is WRONG.
Jen has the responsibility to read outside of NBC exit polls if she wants to be accurate and credible about what white women (or anyone else) did or may do. This is especially important because others have used exit poll data to disparage or ignore or misunderstand white women as a group. By now there have probably been refereed studies published in political science journals with even better methods. Psaki has interns Im sure who can dig these out, read them, and give her a summary.
Response to spooky3 (Original post)
Tribetime This message was self-deleted by its author.
BaronChocula
(2,431 posts)he won with WOMEN in 2016 because to him, white women and women are the same thing. In fact Sec'y Clinton won women 54% - 39%
His claim that he won women is confederacy messaging. And the confederacy is alive and well.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/
spooky3
(35,827 posts)Response to spooky3 (Original post)
RSH This message was self-deleted by its author.
RSH
(7 posts)Psaki repeated the right wing lie the other day on her show that there was accusations of Mayor Daley cheating enough in Chicago to throw Illinois into Kenedys total and securing his win. Nixon out of some sort of respect for the country (what a crock) refused to challenge the results. But in reality Kennedy won with 303 to Nixons 219 electral college votes. Illinois at the time had only 27. It was Texas that carried the day!!! LBJ
dchill
(40,080 posts)...feel that we need to be afwaid, vewwy afwaid! Or at least as afwaid as we need to be to keep watching.