General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSwing State Early Voting Update
This is an update of where the election is on early voting and as it is compared to the vote totals from 2020. Data is sourced from https://election.lab.ufl.edu.
When states share party affiliation, that is shown by percent breakdown. When states share gender, that is shown since there is an obvious gender gap this election cycle. (EDIT: WI does not share early voting data.) I am also considering FL a swing state this election cycle. I would have included TX but they do not share early voting data.
Summary: turnout in early voting is good with 12 days to November 5th. The largest early voting turnout so far is in GA, MI, NC, PA and VA. Dems are outpacing Reps in early voting for MI and PA by large margins and close in the remaining states. However, there is a clear gender gap in early voting with Women outpacing men by 10+ points in all states that report it.
AZ
=================
Total: 916,688
Percent of 2020: 37
Percent Dem: 35.9
Percent Rep: 41.8
FL
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Total: 2,817,925
Percent of 2020: 31
Percent Dem: 36.3
Percent Rep: 43.5
GA
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Total: 2,159,980
Percent of 2020: 53.8
Percent Female: 55.3
Percent Male: 44.1
MI
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Total: 1,309,097
Percent of 2020: 46.1
Percent Female: 56.4
Percent Male: 43.4
NV
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Total: 332,668
Percent of 2020: 29.6
Percent Dem: 36.0
Percent Rep: 39.5
NC
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Total: 2,007,659
Percent of 2020: 43.7
Percent Dem: 34.0
Percent Rep: 34.2
Percent Female: 52.1
Percent Male: 42.2
PA
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Total: 1,120,904
Percent of 2020: 42.6
Percent Dem: 61.0 !
Percent Rep: 29.2
VA
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Total: 1,205,062
Percent of 2020: 44
Percent Female: 55.2
Percent Male: 44.8
cally
(21,680 posts)Ive been afraid to look
Emile
(28,483 posts)is a good sign.
jcgoldie
(11,934 posts)Thats the biggest number on the board.
Elsewhere I wonder how many early gop voters may cross over against trump.
lindysalsagal
(22,265 posts)Mr.WeRP
(475 posts)He knows he cannot win in a fair election so he has made it appear like he is ahead in these polls. If the election can be flipped by one state, there is a good chance he will get a case appealed to SCOTUS and I fear that will be like 2001.
Kavanaugh was part of the Brooks Brother riots in FL in 2001 and Stone is already saying there will be violence at the polls in swing states. Their manufactured crisis will give objective probable cause to hear a case.
Tetrachloride
(8,379 posts)Mr.WeRP
(475 posts)Tetrachloride
(8,379 posts)Milwaukee, as of the end of the second day
Qutzupalotl
(14,997 posts)we flip some unlikely and surprising red states.
I would not count out Arizona at this point. Some Republican voters are crossing over this time after Trump tried to throw out their votes in 2020. We can't tell how many ballots are crossovers until election night, but definitely more than zero.
Mr.WeRP
(475 posts)Bwahahahaha
Polybius
(17,245 posts)Looks like Republicans are embracing early voting everywhere, except PA. Why?
Amishman
(5,740 posts)Pa the past few cycles has been bipolar between early voting and in person.
2020 early voting + mail-in (pooled in PA stats)
64.7% D
23.7% R
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html
2024 so far
60.2% D
29.9% R
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-pennsylvania/
So while we are doing well in terms of absolute share, our share is down significantly from 2020 early / mail-in
We can only hope indies break our way, and also hope that the Pubs better early performance is cannibalizing their usual election day heavy volume.