Know this, for all the complaining about the polls, if the polling is correct, Harris will win.

FL and OH abortion measures put those former swing states back into competition.

the Democrats of Ohio know that they are voting to prevent a national ban. We are not going back.

And while individual Mormons have voiced support for Harris the Church itself has not.

Harris is way behind in the polls in Utah:

President: general election, Utah, 2024

Oct. 2-7 Trump +14
Oct. 2-7 Trump +13
Oct. 2-7 Trump +18
Oct. 2-7 Trump +16
Sept. 27-28 Trump +15

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/utah/

I wish this at least would stop. Not UT, not WY, not ID. Wasting money and effort in places like that.

And no, neither TX nor FL are anything other than red.

The only thing that gives me a little bit of hope are how sparsely attended his rallies are. But I don't know if that's because his supporters are tired of him or if they are already decided so the rallies don't matter or if he really is losing support.

I have had a feeling of calmness come over me, punctuated periodically with brief periods of terror, but I keep returning to the thought that the majority of voting Americans are not cruel or stupid or ignorant enough to re-elect the dumpster fire of fraud and fascism again. Logically, he should be losing by double digits in polling. I think the majority of people have withdrawn from the political sphere because it is so filled with venom and bile but I don't see enthusiasm for Trump. I see him for what he is - a feeble, old, decrepit, racist, sexist, criminal LOSER!

In 2020, and even in the 2022 mid-terms, there were either no Republican voices raised against Trump and the candidates he endorsed, or else the very few who were public about their opposition were seen as lone voices in the wilderness.

Now, seemingly every prominent Republican in the country with more than two brain cells to rub together has come out in support of Kamala Harris. I strongly suspect they will bring a lot of proxies over with them, leaving only the die-hard, blockheaded Trumpanzees to vote for Anus Mouth.

Wall Drug than Traitor Tot.

If any ONE of those fall into the Harris column, it's gonna be a fun night for us!

But I thought I was being to optimistic. If Florida turns blue, it is over early. Come on, Floridians! Help end this thing so quickly we can all start celebrating before 10pm central time.

Florida and Ohio are tougher due to demographic changes . MAGAs seem to flock to these states Texas has the urban centers to turn blue IF everyone gets out to vote.

I donated $50 last night so I figured I earned something

Lucas Kunce is really holding his own against Josh Hawley in Missouri. I have relatives there who say that the ground game appears to be pretty hefty and people are tired of Hawley's corruption going back to his days as attorney general.

I was in Iowa a couple of weeks ago, and I know that reading the signs, i.e. yard signs, is not a good way to predict. But it sure leaves the impression that Harris is doing a lot better there than expected. There's very little recent polling data for Iowa, most of it based on when Biden was still running, which is why I think most of the current polling models are wrong. The areas around Clinton and Dubuque and Davenport seem to be pretty blue.

Dad (83), Me (53), Wife (53), Daughter 1 (26), Son 1 (21), Son 2 (19), Daughter-in-law (21) and Daughter 2 (18)...
Hawley is a total scumbag and the fact that he can't yet run away (*pun DEFINTIELy intended) with this race in this state is very telling...

The #1 challenge we have in front of us is voter apathy / indifference / inaction.

And YES...a LOT of voters who didn't bother to vote in 2016 saw what was at stake in 2020 and VOTED.

I don't have to tell anyone how much MORE is at stake THIS year.

So, if people "get it" and SHOW UP, he's FINISHED.

I have been doing my best to spread the word however I am able to.

...and I have been doing the same.

We can't turn around the MAGAts (in large numbers) and wean them off of Trump in THIS election cycle.
All we can do is get the message out to EVERYONE ELSE who will listen.

especially first time voters and young women who see the dangers of another Trump dicatorship.

But I have read a poll recently that said Harris is +5 with Latino voters (thats +5 from what Biden did in 2020, not +5 over Trump).

She is doing better than Biden did with Asians.

And she is +12 over what Biden did in 2020 with women over 50. Not sure how Trump makes that up unless he draws huge support from the 100M unlikely Americans voters who didn’t vote in 2020.

are oversampling Trump voters because they got their asses handed to them two elections in a row.

They want to give the illusion he is winning and discourage democratic voters. Don't listen to polls, VOTE!! VOTE BLUE all the way down the ballot!

I keep seeing this

Rodney Carrington on his playlist.

And great detailed post BTW.

Good perspective. These cult members are, in a word, idiots. They will gather for anything that will get them out of their mothers' basements and away from their wives. I imagine there are many that wouldn't be at Donny's rallies if there was a monster truck rally going on at the same time, or any other event where their kind like to gather. They are just there because it is something to do. These are not people who jog or bike or kayak or work out at the gym. It's rallies, shooting ranges, or beer at the local bar. They don't care about politics or who is running the country. They like the guy who hates who they hate.

His policies are unrealistic.

Besides all the fascist shit he wants to do, his platform has five planks in it.

First, he’s going to stop taxing things like tipped income and overtime pay.

Second, he’s going to cut taxes for high-income earners by a lot.

Third, he’s going to balance the federal budget.

Fourth, he’s going to seal the border airtight and deport anyone already here.

And fifth, he’s going to use tariffs to bring back American manufacturing.

It should be apparent that unless he plans to get rid of the Department of the Navy he is never going to both cut taxes and balance the budget…and Congress would go Ape Shit if he tried shutting down the Navy and the Marine Corps. Impeachment hearings for Trump and the troll he runs around with would surely follow and this time they’d stick.

Sealing the border airtight would not only involve building his wall but also stopping every vehicle, ship and airplane coming into this country, completely unloading it and inspecting it for human cargo. There is stuff you can’t do that with because it’s got to be handled with especial care so it won’t melt or explode, and it would cause a bottleneck at the border you wouldn’t believe. And…an East German Border Command in America would blow an even bigger hole in the budget than his tax plans already would.

The factory thing is also problematic because a lot of companies would go under before they got their factories up. I mean, this idiot has built hotels. He knows how long it takes to go from bare ground to overcharging guests. Factories are worse. And if no one’s buying your products because they can’t pay $2500 for what is now a $1250 item, you won’t have the money to build a factory.

It basically comes down to Trump just telling his audience what he thinks they want to hear whether those things are even possible. On the other hand, the things Harris wants to are at least slightly feasible.

And that’s white men under 30. The bro culture. They could show up, or they could play Call of Duty all day. Who’s to say.

Last edited Thu Oct 24, 2024, 03:18 PM - Edit history (1)

The plan is obvious. They will use those polls they have that show Trump winning, to prove he was robbed.

But I do have a pessimistic side to me. A part of me, I try to keep way down deep, fears the silent Trump voter. Like someone said up thread, his rallys are not well attended, but that's because his voters have already decided he is the One. But they also know, in their own deep down, that he's unhinged, and a narcissist, and authoritarian, and they don't need to see it anymore, but he's their Great White Hope. Someone with zero shame, that will live out their own darkest racist fantasies, comes around rarely, maybe never again. They are ashamed to admit their choice, and maybe even don't feel good about it, but they will do their "duty" and vote Trump to do the dirty deeds that maybe they wouldn't have the stomach for. But secretly wish someone else, like Trump, would for them

Fox News and other RW media have scared them shitless. WE think the country is tilting dangerously close to a dark era of Fascism. THEY are convinced if Trump doesn't get in, America will be dropped into a dark era of Communism, and a rush on boys and girls getting sex changes, and wide open borders letting in hordes of dark skinned criminals and pet chefs.

And we wouldn't be Democrats if we weren't pessimistic, especially about elections.

Here is something to think about whenever we look at those electoral college maps.

Illinois is solid blue. Percentage of the population that is AA about 14%.

Mississippi is solid red. Percentage of the population that is AA about 38%.

Racial disparities in voter turnout have grown since Supreme Court ruling, study says

The turnout gap between white and nonwhite voters in the U.S. is growing fastest in jurisdictions that were stripped of a federal civil rights-era voting protection a decade ago, according to a new study.

The protections in Section 5 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act required some states and localities with a history of voting discrimination to obtain federal approval before they could make any changes to their voting laws or procedures.

...

"What we found was that these jurisdictions fell back into their pattern of adopting laws and policies that made voting difficult for people of color," says Kareem Crayton, the center's senior director for voting rights and representation.

https://www.npr.org/2024/03/05/1235521824/voter-turnout-race-disparities-supreme-court