7 Signs That Point to Kamala Harris Defeating Trump
7 Signs That Point to Kamala Harris Defeating Trump
GUESSING GAME
Mini Racker
Politics Reporter
Updated Oct. 24 2024 10:53AM EDT
Published Oct. 24 2024 5:00AM EDT
https://www.thedailybeast.com/7-signs-that-point-to-kamala-harris-defeating-trump/
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Gains on the Economy
And to paraphrase Carville: Its still the economy, stupid. Americans had generally trusted Trump more than Democrats to handle the issueuntil this fall. Several polls now show Harris has regained voters trust on their No. 1 issue as she has touted policies promising to make home-buying, grocery-shopping and entrepreneurship more affordable.
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Trumps Weakening Base
Republicans have touted their success in cutting into Harris margins with traditionally Democratic groups, including Black and Latino men. But Trump may be losing ground with his own base. As CNN election analyst Harry Enten noted on Monday, Trumps support from white voters who didnt go to college has dwindled. That could be especially relevant in the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, where these voters make up the majority of the electorate.
Early Voting in Michigan
Sure, Democrats tend to vote early more often than Republicans, and Republicans could show up in record numbers on Nov. 5. But still, there are good signs for Harrisin Michigan, in particular. In the Democratic strongholds of Detroit-area counties Wayne and Oakland, about 700,000 voters have requested absentee ballotsroughly half of the total number who voted in those counties in 2020. More than half of those voters have already returned their ballots, according to the states voting dashboard. Plus, TargetSmart data suggests the share of Black early voters has increased since 2020, Forbes reportedand Harris support among Black voters far outpaces Trumps.
Likability
The past two elections show that plenty of voters who dont approve of Trumps character will support him anyway. But favorability can make a difference in a close raceand Harris rating is much higher than Trumps. According to FiveThirtyEights polling average, Harris has a net favorability rating of -0.6 percent, while Trumps is at -8.8 percent. Harris running mate, Tim Walz, is the only candidate on either ticket with a positive favorability rating.
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