7 Signs That Point to Kamala Harris Defeating Trump

7 Signs That Point to Kamala Harris Defeating Trump

GUESSING GAME
Mini Racker
Politics Reporter

Updated Oct. 24 2024 10:53AM EDT
Published Oct. 24 2024 5:00AM EDT

https://www.thedailybeast.com/7-signs-that-point-to-kamala-harris-defeating-trump/

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Gains on the Economy
And to paraphrase Carville: It’s still the economy, stupid. Americans had generally trusted Trump more than Democrats to handle the issue—until this fall. Several polls now show Harris has regained voters’ trust on their No. 1 issue as she has touted policies promising to make home-buying, grocery-shopping and entrepreneurship more affordable.

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Trump’s Weakening Base
Republicans have touted their success in cutting into Harris’ margins with traditionally Democratic groups, including Black and Latino men. But Trump may be losing ground with his own base. As CNN election analyst Harry Enten noted on Monday, Trump’s support from white voters who didn’t go to college has dwindled. That could be especially relevant in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, where these voters make up the majority of the electorate.

Early Voting in Michigan
Sure, Democrats tend to vote early more often than Republicans, and Republicans could show up in record numbers on Nov. 5. But still, there are good signs for Harris—in Michigan, in particular. In the Democratic strongholds of Detroit-area counties Wayne and Oakland, about 700,000 voters have requested absentee ballots—roughly half of the total number who voted in those counties in 2020. More than half of those voters have already returned their ballots, according to the state’s voting dashboard. Plus, TargetSmart data suggests the share of Black early voters has increased since 2020, Forbes reported—and Harris’ support among Black voters far outpaces Trump’s.

Likability
The past two elections show that plenty of voters who don’t approve of Trump’s character will support him anyway. But favorability can make a difference in a close race—and Harris‘ rating is much higher than Trump’s. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Harris has a net favorability rating of -0.6 percent, while Trump’s is at -8.8 percent. Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, is the only candidate on either ticket with a positive favorability rating.

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