General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDemocratic path to keep the Senate
Last edited Thu Oct 24, 2024, 04:18 PM - Edit history (1)
If we presume that Harris wins the presidency, we need to:
Win or hold 7* of the following 10 for a tie, with Walz as the tie-breaker:
Arizona
Florida
Michigan
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas
Wisconsin
I left off Maryland because it looks pretty safe. The math was always going to be challenging for Democrats this cycle, with 23 seats in play to 11 for the Republicans.
Nebraska looks very close (less than 1%, per the 538 average, though recent polls are all over the place, both pro and con) and an Osborn win there would help the math significantly.
Vote, vote, vote, and hope that the 2022-like surge that many say exists but isn't reflected in the polling proves to be real.
*Fixed a dumb math error on my part. The map I was using as a basis decided to revolt. My apologies to all.
Think. Again.
(16,892 posts)leftieNanner
(15,642 posts)We don't know who he will choose to caucus - Dems or GOP.
Would love to win nonetheless.
Zambero
(9,557 posts)Another option would be to caucus situationally depending on legislation being considered, or majority leadership vote considerations.
leftieNanner
(15,642 posts)Whether Chuck Schumer has the gavel or not.
Zambero
(9,557 posts)I'm not 100% certain of the Senate rules, but my impression would be that members can choose to vote for any leadership candidate regardless of party affiliation.
TwilightZone
(27,523 posts)It's not like the House, where everyone votes.
That would make things really complicated if Osborn doesn't caucus with the Dems. If it's 50/49/1 (Osborn being the 1), that would seem to make the Rs the majority. I wonder if he can or would join the Dems for purposes of electing leadership.
Like this election needed another plot twist....
TwilightZone
(27,523 posts)In the Senate, the caucuses choose their leaders. It's not like the House, where everyone votes for the Speaker.
That would make things really complicated if Osborn doesn't caucus with the Dems. If it's 50/49/1 (Osborn being the 1), that would seem to make the Rs the majority. I wonder if he can or would join the Dems for purposes of electing leadership.
In It to Win It
(9,036 posts)TwilightZone
(27,523 posts)But his record, which he insists is non-partisan, is probably at least slightly left-of-center, on balance. Supports abortion rights, but also gun rights. Speaks out again corporate power. Anti-school vouchers. Decriminalize marijuana. Remove the caps on SS contributions and anti-privatizing SS. Close corporate tax loopholes. Anti-discrimination and pro-Civil Rights. Wants crackdown on illegal immigration. Pro-border security.
He'd essentially be a wild card, but I think he'd be our wild card more often than not.
In It to Win It
(9,036 posts)Jon Tester is in a tough race. I'm rooting for him obviously but he's facing quite an uphill battle. With each election cycle, Montana becomes more and more right-leaning. This is going to his toughest year and I hope he makes it.
I'm confident about the following 6 races:
Arizona
Michigan
Nevada
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Even though Sherrod Brown is facing a tough race in Ohio, I have an inexplicable confidence that he can pull out a win.
I live in FL. I'm just not seeing a pickup opportunity here unfortunately. Again, I hope I eat my words. I hope I'm wrong.
For TX, I'll believe it when I see it. Surprise me.
For the Senate overall, I think our best case scenario is a 50-50 Senate with Kamala Harris and Tim Walz winning the election. I don't see us getting more than 50 seats. This map is tough.
TwilightZone
(27,523 posts)Fischer cruised to reelection in 2018, winning by nearly 20%. That could be slightly misleading because Democrats in NE sometimes don't run full-tilt against incumbent Republicans who appear to be in safe seats, but it's still a pretty surprising turnaround.
Republicans are annoyed that they've had to dump money into the race.
My gut - and 15 years living in the state previously - thinks she probably pulls it out, but I'd be more than happy to be wrong.
Trumpdumper
(180 posts)Dems need only 7 of these 10 seats for a tie, assuming that West Virginia is the only D incumbent race that has been conceded to the Rs.
TwilightZone
(27,523 posts)The map I was using as a basis prematurely flipped MT to Trump. My apologies. Fixed.