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babylonsister

(171,684 posts)
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 05:51 AM Oct 25

When CNN's Chief Poll Alarmist Is Telling You To Calm Down...

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/23/2279048/-When-CNN-s-Chief-Poll-Alarmist-Is-Telling-You-To-Calm-Down?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

When CNN's Chief Poll Alarmist Is Telling You To Calm Down...
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 6:42:43p EDT
Fenris Hero


Maybe its time to take a moment and breathe.

I have issues with Harry Enten and his proprietary data models, but he does make a good point here. Yes, the margins are tight, but the fact is, Harris is leading in the polls, and she is leading consistently. I don’t trust polls in a vacuum, but I do give them credence when they align with other indicators. The idea that Harris is ahead meshes with a lot of other things we’re seeing on the ground and in early voting totals.

The fact is that Harris’s campaign is acting like its a tight campaign and is moving its pieces accordingly, and Trump’s campaign is relying on the chief Twit to drive outreach and is acting like this is going to be a base election. Its not. This is shaping up to be a turnout election, with people fired up and ready to vote.

There are positive signs everywhere for Team Blue. We’ve done a good job of negating the GOPs electoral vote advantage. The senate race in Texas is competitive enough that Ted Cruz is panhandling on Fox News for money. Nebraska’s senate race is competitive, a sentence no one expected to write this year. The early vote totals are leaning our way in the key places. Undecided voters are breaking towards Kamala. GOP attempt to rig the Georgia election appears to finally have been defeated. The GOPs field is pushing election denialism despite all signs showing it's a campaign killer. Harris is racking up endorsements from conservative names at a nearly comical rate. Hell, the freaking Drudge Report is all in on taking down Donald.


Nothing’s settled till the polls close on November 5th, but we’re in the lead going into the last few turns of the race. Every day is now one less day Trump’s campaign has to find something to help him pull ahead. James Comey isn’t coming to his rescue this time. If he wants to win this thing, he has to win this race himself, and that’s a difficult thing to do when all you do is lose elections.
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When CNN's Chief Poll Alarmist Is Telling You To Calm Down... (Original Post) babylonsister Oct 25 OP
Bless you for posting this. n/t Raven Oct 25 #1
Till HER hand is on the Bible and the words are said... MiHale Oct 25 #2
I have been visualizing that very moment in my mind's eye every morning! callous taoboy Oct 25 #4
We start our return to normalcy the moment Trump's cell door is locked. jaxexpat Oct 25 #17
Once burned... babylonsister Oct 25 #19
Every Time TFG Speaks modrepub Oct 25 #3
Thank you for posting this ... crosinski Oct 25 #5
But .... Shoonra Oct 25 #6
Indonesia has more lenient abortion laws than many red states ffs jfz9580m Oct 25 #7
No... I don't think that I will FBaggins Oct 25 #8
so you're panicking? LymphocyteLover Oct 25 #10
Not the word that I would use FBaggins Oct 25 #18
it's definitely worrisome... my sleep has not been good the last couple of weeks LymphocyteLover Oct 25 #28
also, Trump couldn't be a worst general election candidate and I still don't get how good his polls numbers are LymphocyteLover Oct 25 #9
there are alot of bad polls intended to prop up the Con's chances. Don't pay attention to the polls. See here onetexan Oct 25 #16
I completely understand why Harris needs to emphasize an underdog status. gordianot Oct 25 #11
Thank you, babylonsister, for this note of sanity. Bumbles Oct 25 #12
This is what I've been saying as an amateur PCIntern Oct 25 #13
Push through the tape, but you're right about keeping a OnDoutside Oct 25 #14
Can't tell you how DemonGoddess Oct 25 #15
I wouldn't trust Harry Enten Farmer-Rick Oct 25 #20
bet that "french national" is playing with some rich american's money jcgoldie Oct 25 #21
This is good for my nerves, but Susan Calvin Oct 25 #22
Plus, Democrats have starpower in candidates, surrogates, and pop culture icons bucolic_frolic Oct 25 #23
I hope you're right COL Mustard Oct 25 #24
Agreed; we need a steady hand here; lots of noise out there townie Oct 25 #25
I find it harrowing that this race is close at all. D23MIURG23 Oct 25 #26
I've said it before, it's not any one poll that matters, it's the trending. mucholderthandirt Oct 25 #27

MiHale

(10,894 posts)
2. Till HER hand is on the Bible and the words are said...
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 06:21 AM
Oct 25

forgive me for having a small knot in my gut.

crosinski

(562 posts)
5. Thank you for posting this ...
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 06:31 AM
Oct 25

… my shoulders were up around my ears and I didn’t realize it until I read your post. Now I can relax a bit.

Shoonra

(568 posts)
6. But ....
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 06:36 AM
Oct 25

Back in 2016, we were told that all the polls put Hillary ahead, and that Trump wasn't really trying.

Never go slack until Election Day is over; positively get out the vote, drive voters to the polls, roust up every last vote.

jfz9580m

(15,584 posts)
7. Indonesia has more lenient abortion laws than many red states ffs
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 06:37 AM
Oct 25
https://time.com/7006331/indonesia-restrictive-abortion-law-maternal-mortality-rape-medical-emergency-exception/

Indonesia will allow women to have an abortion up to 14 weeks gestation in some instances, from six weeks previously, as part of regulatory changes aimed at arresting one of Southeast Asia’s highest rates of maternal mortality.
The new rule, signed into law by President Joko Widodo this week, follows demands from women’s rights activists and health-care practitioners who argue that the previous rule was too restrictive in cases of rape, leading some women and girls to be jailed for terminations beyond six weeks.
Abortion is illegal in Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim country, with the exception of medical emergencies and rape. Even still, a 2018 study in Java, where almost 60% of Indonesians live, estimated that 1.7 million abortions took place there annually.
Read More: A Women-Led Movement in Indonesia Says Interpreting Islam Isn’t Just for Men
Calls to decriminalize abortion in Indonesia intensified after a teenager raped by her brother was sentenced in 2018 to six months in jail for terminating her pregnancy. She was later cleared by a higher court after a public outcry.


I picked Indonesia randomly because it occurred to me as an example of a fairly conservative country.

The point is it’s two years into the overturn of Roe v Wade and I think Harris will take it..Polls be damned. It defies common sense for this orange douche to get a second chance to shit all over the planet.
This election will probably be a referendum on choice.

FBaggins

(27,802 posts)
8. No... I don't think that I will
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 06:45 AM
Oct 25

“Leading in the polls and leading consistently” isn’t really true. But if it were it would still be dangerous spin - because we know that she has to win by at least three points to get elected. And the polls reflecting that large a lead are few and far between.

FBaggins

(27,802 posts)
18. Not the word that I would use
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 08:01 AM
Oct 25

But the combination of our perceived chances (a bit worse than a coin flip) and the extreme impact of a loss - comes pretty close

LymphocyteLover

(6,980 posts)
9. also, Trump couldn't be a worst general election candidate and I still don't get how good his polls numbers are
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 06:45 AM
Oct 25

something's weird

gordianot

(15,535 posts)
11. I completely understand why Harris needs to emphasize an underdog status.
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 06:51 AM
Oct 25

It is terribly discouraging but probably necessary.

Bumbles

(268 posts)
12. Thank you, babylonsister, for this note of sanity.
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 07:04 AM
Oct 25

Sometimes it's hard to breathe or make sense of what's going on when all the oxygen has been sucked out of the air by the mainstream media and the information is so skewed.

OnDoutside

(20,672 posts)
14. Push through the tape, but you're right about keeping a
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 07:16 AM
Oct 25

sense of proportion. Remember back to 2016 and 2020, Harris has nothing of the negativity that Clinton and Biden had to endure from Repug attacks, her campaign (Bidens team mostly) has run a fantastic race, running a positive attitude campaign that most Americans want. Their ground game seems to be working too. Plus getting abortion on the slate has clearly worked in energising women.

Farmer-Rick

(11,538 posts)
20. I wouldn't trust Harry Enten
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 08:09 AM
Oct 25

He uses Polymarket. A betting site that is promoted by Trump, Musk and Nate Silver.

"A crypto-powered gambling website called Polymarket. Using digital currencies, gamblers on Polymarket have wagered more than $100 million on the outcome of the presidential race, turning the site into the internet betting phenomenon of the 2024 election....(Nate Silver is on their board)

Elon Musk has promoted Polymarket’s odds on X, calling them “more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.” CNN and other news media organizations have featured the projections in their election coverage. And as the market has swung heavily in Mr. Trump’s favor, he has relentlessly publicized the site’s numbers, seeking to create a sense of inevitability about the election’s outcome....

But Mr. Trump’s apparent lead may be an illusion. The odds on Polymarket began favoring him this month after just four accounts, with user names like Fredi9999 and PrincessCaro, bet more than $30 million on a Trump victory, according to an analysis of transaction records by Chaos Labs, a crypto data provider. Polymarket said on Thursday that all four accounts were controlled by one person, whom it described as a French national with a financial services background, without revealing the person’s identity."

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/25/technology/polymarket-election-betting-crypto-trump.html

And it is illegal for any American to place a bet on the site. So, this is merely what filthy-rich foreigners think and want. Do you think Putin would hesitate to put some of Russia's tax payer dollars on it?

The media is creating a Red mirage out of polling. And one of their main tools is an illegal gambling site promoted by Trump, Musk And Nate Silver.

There's plenty good reasons to be hopeful the Kamala will win and win big. Soon the pollsters will be saying Kamala overperformed the polls. Which is pollster speak for we didn't see it coming.

bucolic_frolic

(47,607 posts)
23. Plus, Democrats have starpower in candidates, surrogates, and pop culture icons
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 08:19 AM
Oct 25

Republicans have MAGA trolls.

Society is speaking in this election. America likes itself just the way things are. No need to go Nazi with Hitler wannabes.

COL Mustard

(6,989 posts)
24. I hope you're right
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 08:34 AM
Oct 25

But I’m afraid I won’t believe it until President Harris and Vice President Walz are actually in office.

Then I’ll breathe.

D23MIURG23

(3,097 posts)
26. I find it harrowing that this race is close at all.
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 10:20 AM
Oct 25

No one who claims to love our country or what it stands for should be able to vote for that guy. He's anathema to our system of government and the values it was founded on. That more than about 10% of our country would get behind him is deeply disturbing.

No one needs to ask whether fascism can happen in America now. The answer to that question is deafening.

mucholderthandirt

(1,207 posts)
27. I've said it before, it's not any one poll that matters, it's the trending.
Fri Oct 25, 2024, 11:35 AM
Oct 25

Since day one, Harris has trended up. Up from Biden's place at the beginning, up since she was the nominee. Up, up, up. Sure, some down, you have to understand how polls are done and how they're analyzed. But, UP.

And I also think that whatever percentage Harris has, add ten. If she's at 44%, it's really 54%. Subtract at least five from Trump's number, so if he's at say, 34%, he's really 29%. Or lower.

Polls, like statistics, can be manipulated to say whatever you want. When there are other indicators that one person is doing better than polled, you know someone has their finger on the scale.

Also, Harris has no way to go but up. Trump is flatlined, there's really no new supporters for him out there.

I'm no expert, and we still have to work like dogs with voter turnout, and watching for illegal shit going on, but I have an almost zen feeling about the election. (We're going to win, and bigly.) I'm surprised how calm I feel, I wasn't like this before Joe Biden stepped down, even though I was sure he'd win, just very narrowly.

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