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BlueWaveNeverEnd

(12,839 posts)
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 05:14 AM Oct 2024

There's a new kind of gender gap in the 2024 election: Women are voting early in huge numbers, far outpacing men.

2024 Elections

Dems see signs for optimism in gender gap in early vote
Across battlegrounds, there is a 10-point gender gap in early voting so far, according to a POLITICO analysis.


There’s a new kind of gender gap in the 2024 election: Women are voting early in huge numbers, far outpacing men.

It’s giving anxious Democrats — who see female voters as key to a Kamala Harris victory — newfound hope heading into the final week of the campaign.

across battlegrounds, there is a 10-point gender gap in early voting so far: Women account for roughly 55 percent of the early vote, while men are around 45 percent, according to a POLITICO analysis of early vote data in several key states. The implications for next week’s election results are unclear; among registered Republicans, women are voting early more than men, too. But the high female turnout is encouraging to Democratic strategists, who expected that a surge in Republican turnout would result in more gender parity among early voters.


It’s impossible to know who these women are voting for, including whether Democrats are winning over unaffiliated or moderate Republican women disillusioned with former President Donald Trump. But the gender gap has been one of the defining features of the 2024 campaign, and Harris allies see the lack of a surge of male voters as an encouraging sign.

“In some states women are actually exceeding their vote share from 2020, which is at this point shocking to me,” said Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart. “I never would have bet on that.”

Democrats’ burgeoning optimism over female turnout comes as Harris zeroes in on moderate suburban women — and particularly non-college educated, white women — in the final days of the campaign, aiming to drive them to the polls with the enthusiasm they showed in the midterm elections, right after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/29/gender-gap-early-voting-00186155

19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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There's a new kind of gender gap in the 2024 election: Women are voting early in huge numbers, far outpacing men. (Original Post) BlueWaveNeverEnd Oct 2024 OP
It's not new. LisaL Oct 2024 #1
According to TargetSmart's analysis, Black and Latino women under the age of 30 are not only showing up at higher rates BlueWaveNeverEnd Oct 2024 #2
And in both AZ & NV there are abortion laws on the ballot. oldsoftie Oct 2024 #3
Re: Tom Bonier's comment Sky Jewels Oct 2024 #4
Exactly what jumped out at me. intheflow Oct 2024 #10
So many men don't seem to get that the high court declaring women Quiet Em Oct 2024 #12
Yeah, it is really hard to imagine Farmer-Rick Oct 2024 #13
If Harris can get a plurality of the white female vote, she wins Kaleva Oct 2024 #19
Texas 54% women 46% men. duncang Oct 2024 #5
I'm imagining Ted Cruz Sky Jewels Oct 2024 #6
I am so hoping this comes true Blue_Roses Oct 2024 #8
Why anyone... 2naSalit Oct 2024 #7
Agreed. I'd like to see ads aimed at men - "Why I'm voting for my wife, for my daughters, and for my mother....." Doodley Oct 2024 #9
I've seen a few good ones so far... 2naSalit Oct 2024 #17
I'm not surprised DemonGoddess Oct 2024 #11
That's what I saw in FL. Longest line I've ever seen, about 75% women. CaptainTruth Oct 2024 #14
Can't conclude anything from this. Older voters vote early and 58% of over 65 population are women mathematic Oct 2024 #15
It's gonna be a slaughter! IrishAfricanAmerican Oct 2024 #16
I think the GOP is a dog that caught the car. TomSlick Oct 2024 #18

LisaL

(47,357 posts)
1. It's not new.
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 05:16 AM
Oct 2024

If you look at the previous elections, there was a large gender gap in 2020 and 2022 as well.

BlueWaveNeverEnd

(12,839 posts)
2. According to TargetSmart's analysis, Black and Latino women under the age of 30 are not only showing up at higher rates
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 05:19 AM
Oct 2024

According to TargetSmart’s analysis, Black and Latino women under the age of 30 are not only showing up at higher rates than their male peers — but by even a larger margin than they did in 2020. That finding is echoed by internal data shared with POLITICO by the progressive, women-focused organization Supermajority, which is targeting many of these women: More than a third of the 3.6 million low-propensity women the organization is focused on turning out have already voted, which Democrats see as a good sign given that infrequent voters tend to vote later or on Election Day.

 

oldsoftie

(13,538 posts)
3. And in both AZ & NV there are abortion laws on the ballot.
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 05:32 AM
Oct 2024

If Harris can take both those states it would be huge.

 

Sky Jewels

(9,148 posts)
4. Re: Tom Bonier's comment
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 05:59 AM
Oct 2024

about being “shocked” that women are turning out in huge numbers: Why is it that so many men don’t or won’t understand that women are ENRAGED about Dobbs?

intheflow

(29,988 posts)
10. Exactly what jumped out at me.
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 09:06 AM
Oct 2024

I don't understand how men don't understand the horror of being stripped of bodily autonomy just because of your sex. Probably because it will never happen to them and they have a complete lack of imagination. We can compare it to being hijacked or kidnapped, we can talk at length about how our bodies are held hostage for 9 months and even liberal guys be like, well, yeah, but I never would have imagined woman would still be motivated by something that happened two years ago! They don't get it that Dobbs wasn't the end, it was the beginning and it's an ongoing horror.

Quiet Em

(2,536 posts)
12. So many men don't seem to get that the high court declaring women
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 09:13 AM
Oct 2024

property of the State, is insulting, and dehumanizing. And yes, women are dying and suffering horrendous consequences. We are angry and it's not going to go away until we get this fixed.

Farmer-Rick

(12,479 posts)
13. Yeah, it is really hard to imagine
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 09:30 AM
Oct 2024

I imagine it as being required by law to give up a kidney, or a piece of your liver, to a dying rich man. Much like China does to prison inmates.

Here in the US we worship the filthy-rich. So, it's more likely a rich man will be able to take your organs legally in order for them to survive.

Because if a woman's bodily autonomy is in control of the government, when are they going to come take a man's bodily autonomy? Yes, there is a slippery slope.

Kaleva

(40,173 posts)
19. If Harris can get a plurality of the white female vote, she wins
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 11:33 PM
Oct 2024

Trump got the plurality of the white female vote in 2016

duncang

(3,767 posts)
5. Texas 54% women 46% men.
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 06:11 AM
Oct 2024

I know in my family it’s split on the gender gap. 4 each all votes for VP Harris and Allred. My wife and I raised them right.

 

Sky Jewels

(9,148 posts)
6. I'm imagining Ted Cruz
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 06:24 AM
Oct 2024

having his ass handed to him by women voters….a gal can dream…

2naSalit

(99,998 posts)
7. Why anyone...
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 06:32 AM
Oct 2024

Is shocked is a clear indicator showing how women are not taken seriously.

THEY TOOK AWAY ONE OF OUR FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS!!!

We can still vote.

WTF did they expect?

Doodley

(11,629 posts)
9. Agreed. I'd like to see ads aimed at men - "Why I'm voting for my wife, for my daughters, and for my mother....."
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 06:48 AM
Oct 2024

2naSalit

(99,998 posts)
17. I've seen a few good ones so far...
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 11:43 AM
Oct 2024

Several ad making groups are definitely on that theme.

CaptainTruth

(8,046 posts)
14. That's what I saw in FL. Longest line I've ever seen, about 75% women.
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 11:00 AM
Oct 2024

I won't be surprised if it's the biggest turnout of women voters in FL history.

We have women pissed about Dobbs, voting for a female President, voting for a female Senator, & voting for an abortion rights amendment to the state Constitution.

If that combination isn't a huge motivator... I don't know what is.

mathematic

(1,602 posts)
15. Can't conclude anything from this. Older voters vote early and 58% of over 65 population are women
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 11:21 AM
Oct 2024

There isn't enough early voting election history to really draw any conclusions about the the demographic turnout of the early voters. Early voters are not a representative sample. You can't treat it as if it were a statistical poll.

In 2020, women made up 52% of the electorate. That's a 4% gap compared to the 55-45 10% gap in early voting now.

In 2020 over 65 was 16% of the final vote. In early voting now, I'm seeing that over 65 is at 44%.

You absolutely would expect something like a 10 point gender gap with these kinds of numbers. In other words, early voting should have a much larger gender gap than final results because early voting is highly weighted towards elderly voters and the elderly population has vastly more women than men.

TomSlick

(12,881 posts)
18. I think the GOP is a dog that caught the car.
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 10:49 PM
Oct 2024

They have been chasing the overturning of Roe for years. I think women are going to prove that to have been a really bad idea.

To mix metaphors, I've been telling Republicans for years that they were riding a tiger pandering to the religious right. I think the tiger is about to eat them.

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