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struggle4progress

(120,561 posts) Sat Nov 2, 2024, 11:05 AM Nov 2

Dead-heat poll results are improbable

Robert Tait in Washington
Sat 2 Nov 2024 06.00 EDT

... The latest polling has come against a backdrop of unprecedented levels of early voting in multiple states ...

It is notoriously difficult to predict anything about future results from early voting, though some 58% of early voters in Pennsylvania aged 65 or over were registered Democrats ...

Writing on NBC’s website, Josh Clinton, a politics professor at Vanderbilt University, and John Lapinski, the network’s director of elections, pondered whether the tied race reflected not the sentiments of the voters, but rather risk-averse decision-making by pollsters. Some, they suggested, may be wary of findings indicating unusually large leads for one candidate and introduce corrective weighting ...

Large numbers of surveys would be expected to show a wider variety of opinion, even in a close election, due to the randomness inherent in polling ...

“Some of the tools pollsters are using in 2024 to address the polling problems of 2020, such as weighting by partisanship, past vote or other factors, may be flattening out the differences and reducing the variation in reported poll results” ...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/02/what-polls-mean-so-far-trump-harris-election-voters

5 replies

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Highlight:

Dead-heat poll results are improbable (Original Post) struggle4progress Nov 2 OP

Trump's level of support rarely varies. TwilightZone Nov 2 #1

And every time another GOP group flips for Harris, the race GETS EVEN TIGHTER!!! Blue Owl Nov 2 #2

3 kinds of lies: white lies, damn lies, and statistics... Wounded Bear Nov 2 #3

Dead heat my ass: PCIntern Nov 2 #4

like I said the other day... WarGamer Nov 2 #5

TwilightZone

(28,834 posts)

1. Trump's level of support rarely varies.

Reply to struggle4progress (Original post)

Sat Nov 2, 2024, 11:13 AM

Nov 2

Except for a relatively short period after January 6th, his approval ratings have been historically stable. They're also historically low, on average, but his support just doesn't change, to the frustration of us all.

It's definitely possible that adjustments since 2020 or 2022 have introduced a bit of flat-lining, but the fact that Trump's support varies so little is certainly a factor. There just isn't much movement available, contrary to what many assert. His current floor and ceiling might be as little as a couple % apart. If so, that's not enough for the polls to show any significant movement.

The wildcard is turnout. If one side or the other - preferably our side - shows up in higher numbers than the polls anticipate and in higher relative numbers than the other side, the results may be very different from what's expected. Many have asserted that this is going to be the case.

Blue Owl

(54,984 posts)

2. And every time another GOP group flips for Harris, the race GETS EVEN TIGHTER!!!

Reply to struggle4progress (Original post)

Sat Nov 2, 2024, 01:18 PM

Nov 2

That is scientifically impossible.

Wounded Bear

(60,900 posts)

3. 3 kinds of lies: white lies, damn lies, and statistics...

Reply to struggle4progress (Original post)

Sat Nov 2, 2024, 01:21 PM

Nov 2

There are many ways to make statistical data (polls) fit your narrative if you really want to.

I don't ignore polls, but I don't fret much over them either.