I'm watching Kornacky right now - he is scaring me.

And keep their television viewing ratings high.

We will be listening to how the MSM completely blew this election after the election.

They are going with the media narrative.

It's safer this way for them. They are full of shit.

Are they full of shit, too?

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/11/03/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/kamala-harris-iowa-poll-reaction-00187008

Think it was already posted here but it's a good read

Male Pollsters Shocked — Shocked!! — When a Woman Pollster Discovers Women Voters
https://www.emptywheel.net/2024/11/03/male-pollsters-shocked-shocked-when-a-woman-pollster-discovers-women-voters/

...The reason we’re seeing this herding is because Nate Silver has spent 16 years training pollsters to herd. It probably makes things worse that polling has become far more difficult, far more expensive, and far more important in shitty campaign coverage (not least because of Nate Silver). The herding is happening because, thanks to the early but not more recent success of Nate, political operatives know they can create a reality in poll averages.


...This entire election has been disproportionately viewed through the lens of polling, polling that even the Two Nates confess exhibit obvious problems.

And best as we can tell, pollsters have contorted their polls to ensure they don’t miss Trump voters (again, with no discussion of how you account for higher COVID-associated death rates among Trump supporters since 2020). But they have (apparently) done absolutely nothing to ensure they don’t miss pissed off women.

And then Ann Selzer came along.

I don't think the campaign is dismissing it outright ... just the possibility she leads in Iowa.

But in 2016, their final poll indicated a strong shift of support to Trump. In 2020, likewise, their poll again indicated a shift away from Biden. It raised questions as to whether the polling in surrounding states were accurate.

according to that poll and also I just saw her talking to Anderson Cooper about that Iowa poll. She said it is very accurate

But there's 9% undecided and a MOE where her lead falls within, so, theoretically, Trump could win 50-47 or something and the poll would still 'be accurate'.

No, but they are cautiously optimistic about it. I am sure they see those numbers very positively. They are not going to tell the media or the rest of us, but I can assure you that the Seltzer poll is a very high-quality poll, and they are definitely taking it seriously.

Poo Pooing it. Of course Rachel would come through.

...but we will know by Wednesday

of the so-called close ones or the ones where he's ahead. I believe the polls are being paid to just spin the shit.

Blue wall of PA, MI, WI + NE-2 is ball game for Harris.

as Kornacki had on the screen.

He hit 49 around the holidays in 2019 and agin in April 2020 as the country rallied around whoever was in the WH as Covid hit. A few here and there but that couldn’t have been anything near an average. Was he citing that he once got to 48? 🙄

Is coming from.

He’s scoring 48 as people remember his Presidency. That’s remarkable because he pierced the formerly impenetrable bottom 4 POTUS according to historians.

Vote for Harris? During the off news hours I’ve been seeing that I’m a republican and voting for Harris ad a lot. I’m sure it won’t get through the cult but hopefully it’ll get through to the rest.

In Az...How can an Abortion Initiative on the ballot look to get a majority of votes, yet those same voters not breaking for Kamala?

My husband says those voters are "fucking idiots if they are women". He has a point there.

Gallego is ahead. Abortion is ahead.
But Harris is behind? The polls may say one thing, but the atmosphere says something else. This feels like 22 when we spent the last few weeks bracing for a blowout despite the atmosphere saying women would show up and vote for abortion.

If Gallego wins and Harris loses, AZ voters brain has completely fried. Don't come running with sad abortion stories anymore

It is like Rashida voting for Stein, helping Trump, who will bring the military guns to Gaza protesters. But, she is against the Gaza situation.

I don't think I've seen him as high as 49% recently.

A week ago, NBC released a poll showing Harris at 49-46 over Trump among likely voters. Now, Sunday, just before the talk shows, they release a poll showing it at 49-49 among registered voters. Big difference, since they seem to be missing the percentage of likely voters, at least among the early vote, by way outside the "margin of error," including the gender gap, the black vote, and the "young vote." Those groups are significantly overperforming the factoring data of predicted turnout, which most polls seem to have kept the same since before Biden dropped out.

As they say, we shall see. But likely voters and registered voters do not poll the same.

why even bother with that format at this point??????

We're almost to the polls that matter.

being that high, especially after all the crazy stuff he's done lately.
But as others have said, that polling isn't as important as the state polling.

We ran the numbers. Even if all 7 swing states are actually tied, there's only a ~1 in 9.5 trillion chance~ that so many polls would show such a close race.


Other than Selzer, and a handful of state focused pollsters, the polling services have given up on this election. They are not even trying anymore. When someone like Nate Silver, who has his own credibility problems, calls out an entire industry for making up their results, you know there is a problem.

These are not really even polls anymore, and they are not even guesses of what will happen. These "polls" are just someone aligning their results to match everyone else's results.

Other than Selzer and a few of those local organizations, we are flying blind heading into Tuesday.

Open the links at these 2 addresses.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219645529

Link to tweet

They seem to get so excited discussing these ties. Hello America, you should feel terror, not excited this is a close race. It is no fun if democracy and dictatorship is tied in fucking USA, the beacon of democracy.

Welker was the first to give Trump a one hour platform for candidate Trump I am still pissed about it

for it. The truth doesn't matter.

Mr. Trump’s support was below forty-seven percent of the vote in 2016 or 2020. His ceiling appears to be about forty-seven percent and even most polls show his current support closer to forty-four percent.

But glad it’s there to get out the vote!

So that would be something like this:

Harris: 50.3
Trump: 48.3
Others: 1.3

1) Remember, MSM gets all it's info from 6 people.
2) Trump has lost supporters over his 2020 numbers
3) The GOP is officially divided worse than ever before. The GOP is now run by the tea party, and establishment politicians. Together, they cannot exist in harmony. The divided numbers alone will never support enough voters to actually create a legitimate victory.
4) Although I cannot support this, I feel that part of his old base has been destroyed. There cannot an increased number of stupid people after each election.
5) Lies never win.
6) Sanity vs Insanity. I know which one will win. Guess which side Trump falls under?

I'm sure I could come up with many more answers, but I'm sick and tired of rehashing the same old shit over and over again. He's a loser. He's proven it over and over again. Enough is Enough. And we will finally be rid of Trump, so prosecutors can do their job, and put his ass away for a long long time.

Farewell Donny. It truly was not all about YOU!!!!

...because 97% of Republican voters are reagent grade, pure assholes. They will vote whomever is at the top of their ticket, like lemmings. Whether a cool Republican like Schwarzenegger or Colin Powell, or a Nazi asshole like Trump the numbers will be exactly the same. I truly feel the whole Republican brand in the Trump era is a psychological disorder.

It’s all about generating clicks and viewer eyeballs and to attract either, you must have exciting “news.”

This breathless “reporting” about the Iowa poll is an example - it’s the latest shiny object.

We plan to flip around MSNBC, CNN, PBS, and the broadcast channels beginning around 11:00 pm then turn it off at midnight and not listen to or watch until Wednesday night.

And those leaving trump rallies early are leaving because they heard or saw something that didn't sit right with them. There is no way it's even close. No way. I still contend the polls were right in 2016 and Comey coming out the way he did just made a lot of Hillary voters give up and stay home. I think they are over correcting the polls to lean too much to the right thinking they under counted trump in 2016.

There just is no way trump has gone over his ceiling of 47% no way. I think he's more likely at 41% ir even lower.

I'm sure there's a lot of folks saying they are....but I'm hoping/praying that between Jan 6 and Dobbs, a lot of "likely" voters become "non-voters" on Tuesday. And keep in mind that they often have to poll way more than the number they use because of non-answers. Hopefully a lot of (actual) Conservatives are not answering rather than admitting they don't want to vote for Sweet Potato Hitler.

These days I'm just sticking to Mideas, Legal AF, Luke Beasley, and Adam mockler on YouTube.... and I hope I got those names correct 😜

galvanized Democratic women and some Independent women, conducted a batshitcrazy campaign and Kamala has run a near perfect campaign and Trump is that close?

BULLSHIT.

referring to, but I heard Plouffe say they have been putting the Menace’s =ceiling= at 49%, so they have been operating with a more conservative number than the 47% we’ve heard.

For what it's worth...

The 538 poll average had her at +3.7% over Trump late August. At the moment, she's at +0.9%. She has been fairly steady around 48% while Trump has come up 4% from late August.

Personally, I'm waiting on Tuesday and still believe she'll win the popular and hopefully get the necessary 270.