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Johnny2X2X

(21,882 posts)
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 11:32 AM Nov 5

How confident are you this election day?

I think the last week was very good for Harris and bad for Trump, she has the momentum that candidates have right before they outperform the polls. There's a lot of data that shows well for her right now. Early voting was better for her than she needed and the data suggests a lot of Republicans are voting for her, maybe 10%.

I don't think this is a coin flip, I think she's clearly favored but it's not a sure thing.


225 votes, 4 passes | Time left: Unlimited
0-25%
16 (7%)
26-50%
20 (9%)
51-75%
44 (20%)
76-90%
72 (32%)
91-100%
73 (32%)
Show usernames
Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll
63 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
How confident are you this election day? (Original Post) Johnny2X2X Nov 5 OP
If turnout is high, I am confident Johonny Nov 5 #1
Early reports are turnout is sky high Johnny2X2X Nov 5 #2
Indeed, I have yet to hear of low or even moderate turnout ANYWHERE. Wednesdays Nov 5 #12
Early voting is a sign Johnny2X2X Nov 5 #14
The two last rallies said it all... FirstLight Nov 5 #3
Does have the feel like she has all the momentum Johnny2X2X Nov 5 #4
90% mvd Nov 5 #5
Very sure she'll win -misanthroptimist Nov 5 #6
Julmur julmur Nov 5 #7
100% H2O Man Nov 5 #8
Nice! Elessar Zappa Nov 5 #42
0-25? Johnny2X2X Nov 5 #9
Most of the mainstream news sites Diraven Nov 5 #27
Since when? Emile Nov 5 #31
Ok maybe I'm just looking at the wrong sites Diraven Nov 5 #33
The Daily Telegraph bias is politically conservative Emile Nov 5 #34
pessimistic Homoudont Nov 5 #44
I voted 51-75 but I'm closer to 75 than 51. Self Esteem Nov 5 #10
Kamala says we are going to win. Emile Nov 5 #11
I'm quite confident that Kamala will win but Cairycat Nov 5 #13
I have been in the bullish group this election season jfz9580m Nov 5 #15
For me, I started sensing 2008 a couple weeks ago Johnny2X2X Nov 5 #17
Thanks-interesting post jfz9580m Nov 5 #20
Coud be more like 2012 Johnny2X2X Nov 5 #26
Yeah - that does reek of desperation jfz9580m Nov 5 #28
Not getting hopes up K221 Nov 5 #30
Welcome to DU AZSkiffyGeek Nov 5 #32
Seriously? Who did you vote for? marble falls Nov 5 #40
Optimistic but terrified palustris Nov 5 #16
Hi fella! GreenEyedLefty Nov 5 #58
Trump MSG rally really hurt him I think crimycarny Nov 5 #18
I go back and forth between feeling good and worried Poiuyt Nov 5 #19
Trust Kamala, she is sure we're going to win. Emile Nov 5 #23
65% confident Polybius Nov 5 #21
Coin flip as far as I am concerned exboyfil Nov 5 #22
I am about 90% confident. NavyDem Nov 5 #24
26-50% missaj Nov 5 #25
I think she'll win the vote but it is what Trump does Jarqui Nov 5 #29
Nauseously optimistic. Bleacher Creature Nov 5 #35
My grandson who lives with us is voting for president for the first time. mommymarine2003 Nov 5 #36
My brain tells me we are going to win MaryMagdaline Nov 5 #37
85% Bullish but not claiming certainty. TheKentuckian Nov 5 #38
I expect shenanigans from the GOP Blue Full Moon Nov 5 #39
Probably about 75% but Elessar Zappa Nov 5 #41
The country I've known for 67 years can't be so broken as to elect one of the worst wiggs Nov 5 #43
25% confident. Managing to think about other things occasionally. maxsolomon Nov 5 #45
I'm not loving today. G_KIA Nov 5 #46
If you click 'Show Usernames' canetoad Nov 5 #47
You been keeping an eye on them too. Emile Nov 5 #49
Yep Emile canetoad Nov 5 #59
Thjank you for pointing this out Johnny2X2X Nov 5 #50
What a co-winky-dink! FSogol Nov 5 #54
We're right where we need to be or ahead of schedule Jason1961 Nov 5 #48
I think the closing rallies echoed the debate Johnny2X2X Nov 5 #51
You might be right Jason1961 Nov 5 #56
Confident enough Tweedy Nov 5 #52
Not very confident. J_William_Ryan Nov 5 #53
For those of you who haven't yet heard of PoindexterOglethorpe Nov 5 #55
Confident but... ravjav Nov 5 #57
Google: Kamala Harris Predicted to Win By Nearly Every Major Forecaster Emile Nov 5 #60
I was right at 25-50% exboyfil Nov 6 #61
This didn't age well. nt Javaman Nov 6 #62
No and I was one of the bullish ones jfz9580m Nov 6 #63

Johnny2X2X

(21,882 posts)
14. Early voting is a sign
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 11:58 AM
Nov 5

Early and mail in totals aren't final yet and won;t be for days, but we likely eclipsed 2020's total and 2020 was in the middle of a 100 year pandemic.

FirstLight

(14,309 posts)
3. The two last rallies said it all...
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 11:37 AM
Nov 5

His was dismal and ICK..

Hers was across cities, times zones, multiple stars, tons of PEOPLE engaged and cheering...the JOY! I feel like it was 2008 again, and I am ready for some CHANGE!!!

Johnny2X2X

(21,882 posts)
4. Does have the feel like she has all the momentum
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 11:39 AM
Nov 5

As much as we missed it while it was happening, Trump had that same momentum in 2016. And he even was surging in 2020 the last couple weeks. SHe is surging right now.

julmur

(150 posts)
7. Julmur
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 11:41 AM
Nov 5

Just hoping beyond hope that the enthusiasm we’ve all seen these past few months will translate into votes!

Johnny2X2X

(21,882 posts)
9. 0-25?
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 11:44 AM
Nov 5

Getting some votes, anyone care to explain their vote for this? You know something we don't or are you just pessimistic.

Diraven

(1,092 posts)
27. Most of the mainstream news sites
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:34 PM
Nov 5

Seem to be predicting it will be close but Trump will win.

Diraven

(1,092 posts)
33. Ok maybe I'm just looking at the wrong sites
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:59 PM
Nov 5

Telegraph has a story with 5 "election experts" and all 5 say Trump will win.

Emile

(30,795 posts)
34. The Daily Telegraph bias is politically conservative
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 01:08 PM
Nov 5

and supports the Conservative Party.

Homoudont

(92 posts)
44. pessimistic
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 02:48 PM
Nov 5

I didn't vote 0-25% but in general I am a very pessimistic person in every aspect of life. Some people are just negative no matter what. I wouldn't look into it too much.

jfz9580m

(15,584 posts)
15. I have been in the bullish group this election season
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:01 PM
Nov 5

I did not make guesses regarding the outcomes of any previous elections. I am more gloomy Gus than cheerleader anyway, but this time somehow I have a good feeling about the result.

It has the feel of the 2008 election more than of any other recent presidential election I remember..

Johnny2X2X

(21,882 posts)
17. For me, I started sensing 2008 a couple weeks ago
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:08 PM
Nov 5

I go to Hapy Hour occasionally at a local dive bar. No one talks politics and at the 5 O'Clock hour they usualy have the news on and turned up. Well political ads came on and one of Trump's lying ads about Kamala and trans prisoners came on. A couple guys that I know are Republicans started making fun of how ridiculous that ad was and were laughing at it as being stupid and irrelevant. At that point, I think I realized those over the top ads Trump was running weren't hitting like his team thought they were, more Republicans weren't falling for this idiotic and pointless culture war memes anymore.

In 2016, you sensed a real Trump momentum going into election day, even if we tried to deny it. In 2020 he had a good couple last weeks and was the incumbent. His campaign limped to the end here and had a disasterous last week starting with the MSG Nazi rally. Polls and odds were moving his way at the end in 2016, they're moving her way this week.

jfz9580m

(15,584 posts)
20. Thanks-interesting post
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:23 PM
Nov 5
I go to Hapy Hour occasionally at a local dive bar. No one talks politics and at the 5 O'Clock hour they usualy have the news on and turned up. Well political ads came on and one of Trump's lying ads about Kamala and trans prisoners came on. A couple guys that I know are Republicans started making fun of how ridiculous that ad was and were laughing at it as being stupid and irrelevant. At that point, I think I realized those over the top ads Trump was running weren't hitting like his team thought they were, more Republicans weren't falling for this idiotic and pointless culture war memes anymore.


Yeah, sometimes you get this vibe about the general mood of the electorate..granted it is never 100%. But your analysis pretty much sums it up there. I don’t think any of their stunts from the last week worked..that garbage stuff was ridiculous.

So the transphobic stuff may backfire huh? Excellent..

I also had flashbacks to 2008 when Vance became a punchline back in July-August, very soon after appearing on the national scene .

It reminded of the Sarah Palin thing..each ticket had/has a rather old man at the top and supposedly fresh talent downticket: a pit bull soccer mom then, a hillbilly bootstrap puller now . And both turn out to be damp squibs to put it politely.

Johnny2X2X

(21,882 posts)
26. Coud be more like 2012
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:29 PM
Nov 5

Where the moods were similar to now and Obama just crushed polls to win in a rout.

On the ads, I am here in MI, the newspaper of record is the Detroit Free Press, they ran a front page feature about trans athletes competing in high school sports in the state, the official number they found out was ....2. There are 2 trans athletes competing in sports in the whole state and no one cares about it, but with the ads you saw on TV you'd think it was tens of thousands.

jfz9580m

(15,584 posts)
28. Yeah - that does reek of desperation
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:41 PM
Nov 5

It seems to be their last ditch effort and I doubt enough people care about it to : a) switch votes or b) start paying attention for the first time to then be swept up by Trump. The only people who care about this stuff outside trans people/their allies are the nutters already voting for Trump (and J K Rowling ).

Here is to hoping for the best !

K221

(9 posts)
30. Not getting hopes up
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:45 PM
Nov 5

The last time I had a good feeling about an election that seemed to be a toss up was 2004 and we saw how that turned out, definitely not getting my hopes up

palustris

(56 posts)
16. Optimistic but terrified
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:02 PM
Nov 5

I'm terrified. Optimistic, but terrified. I don’t post much here; I’m a 'member' of NAFO (basically a shitposting Ukraine supporter), and I’ve donated thousands of dollars for their aid. Trump has picked the worst possible team and is the most dangerous candidate imaginable: an 80-year-old, diaper-wearing pervert with disastrous economic and foreign policies. An insurrectionist who should be in jail.

In contrast, Kamala Harris is a fantastic candidate with excellent economic policies, part of an administration that built the world’s strongest post-COVID recovery and an incredible economy.

It feels like the future of the entire free world hangs in the balance today. I’m not American, but I hope you won’t let us down. Most of you reading this have likely already voted or will, but if you haven’t, please do. It’s never been more important.

GreenEyedLefty

(2,102 posts)
58. Hi fella!
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 04:39 PM
Nov 5

Also a proud member of NAFO!

Thanks for the words of support. So much hangs in the balance

crimycarny

(1,648 posts)
18. Trump MSG rally really hurt him I think
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:14 PM
Nov 5

I feel like Kamala was going to win even before Trump’s disastrous MSG rally, but I feel that rally did irreparable damage to him. Since the MSG rally things have only gone downhill for Trump. Lots of missteps from his campaign (the stupid garbage truck moment felt like a Dukakis tank moment).

Polybius

(18,365 posts)
21. 65% confident
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:25 PM
Nov 5

If Trump didn't have such an abysmal last two weeks, it would be at 50% or less.

exboyfil

(18,037 posts)
22. Coin flip as far as I am concerned
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:25 PM
Nov 5

Remember it is a lot more than just who gets more votes (or even wins the most EC votes). My concerns are violence and terrorism at key polling districts and what the subservient judicial system will do.

I am surrounded by a sea of Trump supporters. I have avoided any discussion of politics at my new employer.

NavyDem

(555 posts)
24. I am about 90% confident.
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:26 PM
Nov 5

I think so long as no one on the Democratic side thinks she's got it in the bag, and fails to vote, it will be a huge landslide. I'm fairly confident we learned from 2016 that we have to vote as if we are 10% behind.

I know at least 20 votes came for Harris/Walz here in San Diego from family I have in the area, so it's a start. 2 of those votes are family members who voted for dump the last election.

missaj

(38 posts)
25. 26-50%
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:28 PM
Nov 5

I felt some optimism yesterday, relief after I voted this morning, but still feeling unsure about how others will vote today.
I was more confident in 2020. This election is too close, and both sides think that momentum is swinging their way.

Jarqui

(10,506 posts)
29. I think she'll win the vote but it is what Trump does
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 12:44 PM
Nov 5

after that worries me - trying to block the Electoral College results from getting to Congress

mommymarine2003

(298 posts)
36. My grandson who lives with us is voting for president for the first time.
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 01:16 PM
Nov 5

He is home sick today but just came downstairs and told me that he would come down at 4 p.m. to watch the results come in with us (Pacific time as we live in Oregon) and would stay up until there were no more results that could come in. He knew what times the polls closed in Georgia, etc. I am happy to see him enthusiastic about the election. He was not excited about Biden, and I am not sure he would have voted. I love Joe Biden, but the younger generation really was struggling with his age. I am very nervous about the election but am cautiously optimistic.

MaryMagdaline

(7,918 posts)
37. My brain tells me we are going to win
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 01:24 PM
Nov 5

My nerves attack me even when my brain is positive. I’m just not a calm and cool person. If someone offered me a Michael Jackson coma drug, I would empty my savings to pay for it. Would go into a coma until Sunday.

wiggs

(8,040 posts)
43. The country I've known for 67 years can't be so broken as to elect one of the worst
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 02:27 PM
Nov 5

persons, worst politicians, worst human beings to office. So I'm confident.

Less confident than 2016, however, since my eyes have been moreopened to some of the surprising homophobic, misogynistic, racist dynamics in play...

maxsolomon

(35,359 posts)
45. 25% confident. Managing to think about other things occasionally.
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 02:51 PM
Nov 5

Don't expect to know jack tonight and expect the next month to be an absolute shit show.

G_KIA

(13 posts)
46. I'm not loving today.
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 02:56 PM
Nov 5

I feel cautiously optimistic, but with occasional bouts of nervousness. Like how are we even here again after everything this turd has put the country through? Should be a blowout of unprecedented proportions.

canetoad

(18,259 posts)
47. If you click 'Show Usernames'
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 03:19 PM
Nov 5

And check their joining date, there are a heap of utter pessimists who ALL joined on June 28 this year. This has applied in other polls too.

Johnny2X2X

(21,882 posts)
50. Thjank you for pointing this out
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 03:26 PM
Nov 5

I too have reported many obvious trolls with that exact same user creation date. I've also pointed it out in threads that that date was apparently the day a bot created a mass of users who almost all post constent negativity.

Jason1961

(461 posts)
48. We're right where we need to be or ahead of schedule
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 03:22 PM
Nov 5

I can safely say that we're either where we projected or ahead of the curve

I think the Debate really showed the Country who the better candidate was

As of this moment, I'm not worried a bit, I feel better about this than I did 2020, a lot better

Johnny2X2X

(21,882 posts)
51. I think the closing rallies echoed the debate
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 03:28 PM
Nov 5

The Nazi rally at MSG for Trump followed by Harri's big closing message rally on the Tuesday after really just brought everyone back to the debate where she just smacked him around like the feeble minded fool he is and all he could do was lie and be nasty.

If she wins, those few days will be pointed to as being pivotol.

Jason1961

(461 posts)
56. You might be right
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 03:50 PM
Nov 5

That rally in MSG was in very poor taste, along with the "jokes" and I think it will be one of the things we look back on and see that cost Trump dearly

Tweedy

(1,220 posts)
52. Confident enough
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 03:30 PM
Nov 5

My superstitions have reared their heads and are telling me not to tempt fate

J_William_Ryan

(2,265 posts)
53. Not very confident.
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 03:30 PM
Nov 5

Presidents are installed via a process both undemocratic and antimajoritarian, at time contrary to the will of the voters – as in 2000 and 2016.

There’s a great deal of fear, ignorance, stupidity, racism, bigotry, misogyny, and hate in support of Trump.

Hope I’m wrong.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(26,845 posts)
55. For those of you who haven't yet heard of
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 03:45 PM
Nov 5

Alan Lichtman, google him, and watch some of the videos with him explaining his 13 keys.

ravjav

(47 posts)
57. Confident but...
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 04:12 PM
Nov 5

Still a nervous wreck. I'm high strung so that's not uncommon. However it is worse today.

jfz9580m

(15,584 posts)
63. No and I was one of the bullish ones
Wed Nov 6, 2024, 06:28 AM
Nov 6

I suppose I was trying out the old “pep rally” thing for once. Never again.

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