General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHow confident are you this election day?
I think the last week was very good for Harris and bad for Trump, she has the momentum that candidates have right before they outperform the polls. There's a lot of data that shows well for her right now. Early voting was better for her than she needed and the data suggests a lot of Republicans are voting for her, maybe 10%.
I don't think this is a coin flip, I think she's clearly favored but it's not a sure thing.
225 votes, 4 passes | Time left: Unlimited | |
0-25% | |
16 (7%) |
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26-50% | |
20 (9%) |
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51-75% | |
44 (20%) |
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76-90% | |
72 (32%) |
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91-100% | |
73 (32%) |
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4 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided. | |
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll |
Johonny
(22,243 posts)If I hear turnout is low, I fear the worse.
Johnny2X2X
(21,882 posts)Record breaking after record breaking early voting.
Wednesdays
(20,315 posts)Johnny2X2X
(21,882 posts)Early and mail in totals aren't final yet and won;t be for days, but we likely eclipsed 2020's total and 2020 was in the middle of a 100 year pandemic.
FirstLight
(14,309 posts)His was dismal and ICK..
Hers was across cities, times zones, multiple stars, tons of PEOPLE engaged and cheering...the JOY! I feel like it was 2008 again, and I am ready for some CHANGE!!!
Johnny2X2X
(21,882 posts)As much as we missed it while it was happening, Trump had that same momentum in 2016. And he even was surging in 2020 the last couple weeks. SHe is surging right now.
Still have a lot of nerves today hoping I am right. Didnt sleep well.
-misanthroptimist
(1,226 posts)And it won't be close in the PV or EC.
Just hoping beyond hope that the enthusiasm weve all seen these past few months will translate into votes!
Johnny2X2X
(21,882 posts)Getting some votes, anyone care to explain their vote for this? You know something we don't or are you just pessimistic.
Diraven
(1,092 posts)Seem to be predicting it will be close but Trump will win.
Diraven
(1,092 posts)Telegraph has a story with 5 "election experts" and all 5 say Trump will win.
Emile
(30,795 posts)and supports the Conservative Party.
I didn't vote 0-25% but in general I am a very pessimistic person in every aspect of life. Some people are just negative no matter what. I wouldn't look into it too much.
Self Esteem
(1,776 posts)I don't like your options lol
Emile
(30,795 posts)I believe her!
Cairycat
(1,768 posts)I am worried about what the MAGAts will do....
jfz9580m
(15,584 posts)I did not make guesses regarding the outcomes of any previous elections. I am more gloomy Gus than cheerleader anyway, but this time somehow I have a good feeling about the result.
It has the feel of the 2008 election more than of any other recent presidential election I remember..
Johnny2X2X
(21,882 posts)I go to Hapy Hour occasionally at a local dive bar. No one talks politics and at the 5 O'Clock hour they usualy have the news on and turned up. Well political ads came on and one of Trump's lying ads about Kamala and trans prisoners came on. A couple guys that I know are Republicans started making fun of how ridiculous that ad was and were laughing at it as being stupid and irrelevant. At that point, I think I realized those over the top ads Trump was running weren't hitting like his team thought they were, more Republicans weren't falling for this idiotic and pointless culture war memes anymore.
In 2016, you sensed a real Trump momentum going into election day, even if we tried to deny it. In 2020 he had a good couple last weeks and was the incumbent. His campaign limped to the end here and had a disasterous last week starting with the MSG Nazi rally. Polls and odds were moving his way at the end in 2016, they're moving her way this week.
jfz9580m
(15,584 posts)Yeah, sometimes you get this vibe about the general mood of the electorate..granted it is never 100%. But your analysis pretty much sums it up there. I dont think any of their stunts from the last week worked..that garbage stuff was ridiculous.
So the transphobic stuff may backfire huh? Excellent..
I also had flashbacks to 2008 when Vance became a punchline back in July-August, very soon after appearing on the national scene .
It reminded of the Sarah Palin thing..each ticket had/has a rather old man at the top and supposedly fresh talent downticket: a pit bull soccer mom then, a hillbilly bootstrap puller now . And both turn out to be damp squibs to put it politely.
Johnny2X2X
(21,882 posts)Where the moods were similar to now and Obama just crushed polls to win in a rout.
On the ads, I am here in MI, the newspaper of record is the Detroit Free Press, they ran a front page feature about trans athletes competing in high school sports in the state, the official number they found out was ....2. There are 2 trans athletes competing in sports in the whole state and no one cares about it, but with the ads you saw on TV you'd think it was tens of thousands.
jfz9580m
(15,584 posts)It seems to be their last ditch effort and I doubt enough people care about it to : a) switch votes or b) start paying attention for the first time to then be swept up by Trump. The only people who care about this stuff outside trans people/their allies are the nutters already voting for Trump (and J K Rowling ).
Here is to hoping for the best !
K221
(9 posts)The last time I had a good feeling about an election that seemed to be a toss up was 2004 and we saw how that turned out, definitely not getting my hopes up
AZSkiffyGeek
(12,663 posts)Your concern is noted.
marble falls
(62,523 posts)palustris
(56 posts)I'm terrified. Optimistic, but terrified. I dont post much here; Im a 'member' of NAFO (basically a shitposting Ukraine supporter), and Ive donated thousands of dollars for their aid. Trump has picked the worst possible team and is the most dangerous candidate imaginable: an 80-year-old, diaper-wearing pervert with disastrous economic and foreign policies. An insurrectionist who should be in jail.
In contrast, Kamala Harris is a fantastic candidate with excellent economic policies, part of an administration that built the worlds strongest post-COVID recovery and an incredible economy.
It feels like the future of the entire free world hangs in the balance today. Im not American, but I hope you wont let us down. Most of you reading this have likely already voted or will, but if you havent, please do. Its never been more important.
GreenEyedLefty
(2,102 posts)Also a proud member of NAFO!
Thanks for the words of support. So much hangs in the balance
crimycarny
(1,648 posts)I feel like Kamala was going to win even before Trumps disastrous MSG rally, but I feel that rally did irreparable damage to him. Since the MSG rally things have only gone downhill for Trump. Lots of missteps from his campaign (the stupid garbage truck moment felt like a Dukakis tank moment).
Poiuyt
(18,272 posts)Emile
(30,795 posts)Polybius
(18,365 posts)If Trump didn't have such an abysmal last two weeks, it would be at 50% or less.
exboyfil
(18,037 posts)Remember it is a lot more than just who gets more votes (or even wins the most EC votes). My concerns are violence and terrorism at key polling districts and what the subservient judicial system will do.
I am surrounded by a sea of Trump supporters. I have avoided any discussion of politics at my new employer.
NavyDem
(555 posts)I think so long as no one on the Democratic side thinks she's got it in the bag, and fails to vote, it will be a huge landslide. I'm fairly confident we learned from 2016 that we have to vote as if we are 10% behind.
I know at least 20 votes came for Harris/Walz here in San Diego from family I have in the area, so it's a start. 2 of those votes are family members who voted for dump the last election.
I felt some optimism yesterday, relief after I voted this morning, but still feeling unsure about how others will vote today.
I was more confident in 2020. This election is too close, and both sides think that momentum is swinging their way.
Jarqui
(10,506 posts)after that worries me - trying to block the Electoral College results from getting to Congress
Bleacher Creature
(11,462 posts)mommymarine2003
(298 posts)He is home sick today but just came downstairs and told me that he would come down at 4 p.m. to watch the results come in with us (Pacific time as we live in Oregon) and would stay up until there were no more results that could come in. He knew what times the polls closed in Georgia, etc. I am happy to see him enthusiastic about the election. He was not excited about Biden, and I am not sure he would have voted. I love Joe Biden, but the younger generation really was struggling with his age. I am very nervous about the election but am cautiously optimistic.
MaryMagdaline
(7,918 posts)My nerves attack me even when my brain is positive. Im just not a calm and cool person. If someone offered me a Michael Jackson coma drug, I would empty my savings to pay for it. Would go into a coma until Sunday.
TheKentuckian
(26,314 posts)Blue Full Moon
(1,326 posts)Elessar Zappa
(16,080 posts)Im still nervous as hell.
wiggs
(8,040 posts)persons, worst politicians, worst human beings to office. So I'm confident.
Less confident than 2016, however, since my eyes have been moreopened to some of the surprising homophobic, misogynistic, racist dynamics in play...
maxsolomon
(35,359 posts)Don't expect to know jack tonight and expect the next month to be an absolute shit show.
G_KIA
(13 posts)I feel cautiously optimistic, but with occasional bouts of nervousness. Like how are we even here again after everything this turd has put the country through? Should be a blowout of unprecedented proportions.
canetoad
(18,259 posts)And check their joining date, there are a heap of utter pessimists who ALL joined on June 28 this year. This has applied in other polls too.
Emile
(30,795 posts)Could just be a coincidence, but......than again. :
Johnny2X2X
(21,882 posts)I too have reported many obvious trolls with that exact same user creation date. I've also pointed it out in threads that that date was apparently the day a bot created a mass of users who almost all post constent negativity.
FSogol
(46,728 posts)Jason1961
(461 posts)I can safely say that we're either where we projected or ahead of the curve
I think the Debate really showed the Country who the better candidate was
As of this moment, I'm not worried a bit, I feel better about this than I did 2020, a lot better
Johnny2X2X
(21,882 posts)The Nazi rally at MSG for Trump followed by Harri's big closing message rally on the Tuesday after really just brought everyone back to the debate where she just smacked him around like the feeble minded fool he is and all he could do was lie and be nasty.
If she wins, those few days will be pointed to as being pivotol.
Jason1961
(461 posts)That rally in MSG was in very poor taste, along with the "jokes" and I think it will be one of the things we look back on and see that cost Trump dearly
Tweedy
(1,220 posts)My superstitions have reared their heads and are telling me not to tempt fate
J_William_Ryan
(2,265 posts)Presidents are installed via a process both undemocratic and antimajoritarian, at time contrary to the will of the voters as in 2000 and 2016.
Theres a great deal of fear, ignorance, stupidity, racism, bigotry, misogyny, and hate in support of Trump.
Hope Im wrong.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(26,845 posts)Alan Lichtman, google him, and watch some of the videos with him explaining his 13 keys.
ravjav
(47 posts)Still a nervous wreck. I'm high strung so that's not uncommon. However it is worse today.
Emile
(30,795 posts)exboyfil
(18,037 posts)Sadly.
Javaman
(63,196 posts)jfz9580m
(15,584 posts)I suppose I was trying out the old pep rally thing for once. Never again.