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senseandsensibility

(24,811 posts)
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 04:31 PM Nov 2024

538 and Nate Silver both have Harris winning now

According to Ron Brownstein on twitter, most of these pollsters who covered for trump through this campaign are now in "CYA" mode.

Of course I started a thread yesterday about how the media was in CYA mode, but now the pollsters are joining in.

Not celebrating yet, of course, but it's a good sign!
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538 and Nate Silver both have Harris winning now (Original Post) senseandsensibility Nov 2024 OP
Silver has Kamala kwolf68 Nov 2024 #1
Silver has been talking about "herding" a lot jcgoldie Nov 2024 #5
It's more like hedging Zambero Nov 2024 #9
Tomorrow Lindsey Graham gonna be like askyagerz Nov 2024 #2
I can see it now senseandsensibility Nov 2024 #8
The polls have been fucked for years now. CousinIT Nov 2024 #3
Silver is an idiot durablend Nov 2024 #4
Being a wrong pollster is bad for (their) business C_U_L8R Nov 2024 #6
We really need to bookmark and preserve... Wednesdays Nov 2024 #7
This message was self-deleted by its author Blue Idaho Nov 2024 #10

kwolf68

(8,447 posts)
1. Silver has Kamala
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 04:32 PM
Nov 2024

At like 50.08 or some shit right? Doesn't Silver also do nothing but aggregate all polls, including bullshit ones? If he's saying Kamala is +50 WITH the bullshit polls, then I LOVE that.

jcgoldie

(12,046 posts)
5. Silver has been talking about "herding" a lot
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 04:39 PM
Nov 2024

He works for Thiel now and probably not to be trusted but he has been outspokenly critical of the polling in this cycle. He argues that its statistically pretty impossible to get these 50/49 polls in state after state after state even if its basically 50/50 race. Its happening because these pollsters are tweaking their internals to get the results they want so as not to stand out in the way Anne Selzer did. They are scared to be wrong.

Zambero

(9,974 posts)
9. It's more like hedging
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 04:55 PM
Nov 2024

Positioning close enough to 50-50 so as not to be off the final mark by a country mile, in order to brag about how "spot on" his projection was, regardless of who wins.

CousinIT

(12,489 posts)
3. The polls have been fucked for years now.
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 04:35 PM
Nov 2024

Don't rely on them.

From Cat Ladies for Kamala - still plenty of time for catcalling! https://go.kamalaharris.com/calls/

Make GOTV calls to the swing states right MEOW!

=^..^=

durablend

(9,212 posts)
4. Silver is an idiot
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 04:36 PM
Nov 2024

Here I thought he was some wise businessman but seeing him he looks like somebody that hides in the basement all day with his pants down dicking around with crypto.

C_U_L8R

(49,305 posts)
6. Being a wrong pollster is bad for (their) business
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 04:40 PM
Nov 2024

Just wait for the amusing gyrations they'll make to prove they were right all along.

Wednesdays

(22,437 posts)
7. We really need to bookmark and preserve...
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 04:41 PM
Nov 2024

...all the threads and posts these last few months, of all the chicken little dire predictions and polls. So we can bring them back and laugh at them four years from now when trolls post "OH NOEZ! DEMOCRATS ARE LOSING!" based on phony polls that year.

Response to senseandsensibility (Original post)

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