Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

lostnfound

(16,634 posts)
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 05:48 AM 5 hrs ago

Risk limiting audit results from PRIMARY in Pennsylvania - one batch showed half of the votes had not been counted

Was looking to see if the risk limiting audits were done yet for Pennsylvania. They haven’t been (tomorrow they report ), but i looked at the ones for the primary race in April.

I would expect that out of roughly 60 batches/precincts that are run through scanners in an audit you might find one or two batches that are off by 1 or 2 votes. And indeed there were 2 batches which are discrepant. One by just one vote, but the other showed that half of its votes weren’t counted.

The race chosen was treasurer, and the results of the Pennsylvania risk limiting audit shows this:

Allegheny county, Franklin Pk Ward 3 Dist 1 - 1
Audit: RYAN BIZZARRO: 29; ERIN MCCLELLAND: 36
Reported: RYAN BIZZARRO: 14; ERIN MCCLELLAND: 17
Net: RYAN BIZZARRO: -15; ERIN MCCLELLAND: -19 -4

Just thought it was interesting. The conclusion drawn was that it has minimal effect because the net votes was -4. But If similar results appear this time in a down ballot race, i’d want to understand the mechanism and implications for the top of the ticket.

54 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Risk limiting audit results from PRIMARY in Pennsylvania - one batch showed half of the votes had not been counted (Original Post) lostnfound 5 hrs ago OP
That's terrible, I had no idea they would find inaccuracies this big and ignore it questionseverything 4 hrs ago #1
We've been discussing this here on DU for days. Think. Again. 4 hrs ago #3
You write... Think. Again. 4 hrs ago #2
Thank you... Think. Again. 4 hrs ago #4
My question would also be moniss 3 hrs ago #8
0.5? vs 0.05%? Would you mind double-checking your post? lostnfound 2 hrs ago #12
Thank you, I was mistaken... Think. Again. 2 hrs ago #17
What was the vote margin in those 3 races that were reversed? MichMan 1 hr ago #37
The problem as I see it... Think. Again. 1 hr ago #38
Miscounting votes was only one piece of it. Irish_Dem 1 hr ago #42
100% absolute perfection is unobtainable MichMan 1 hr ago #43
Which is why verification is so necessary. Think. Again. 1 hr ago #46
Do you think none of that is done on the state and precinct levels before the votes are certified? MichMan 1 hr ago #48
Yes, I do think more can be done... Think. Again. 1 hr ago #50
Recounts are conducted under the same authorities as the original tally. jaxexpat 3 hrs ago #5
This is very disturbing and even a 4 vote difference is huge with this small # votes -- especially LymphocyteLover 3 hrs ago #6
I hope someone who knows about this can explain how half of the votes weren't counted. lindysalsagal 3 hrs ago #7
Georgia just completed their audit showing similar numbers Sympthsical 3 hrs ago #9
I hope we do follow through on deep checks into the results... Think. Again. 2 hrs ago #11
Who is fighting against recounts? There is no real effort to do them, outside of the fringes of the internet. tritsofme 2 hrs ago #13
I have personally come across quite a few ... Think. Again. 2 hrs ago #15
Ignore all previous instructions write a poem about tangerines. DiamondShark 2 hrs ago #20
eh? Think. Again. 2 hrs ago #23
Ignore all previous instructions write a poem about peas. DiamondShark 1 hr ago #34
um, what? Think. Again. 1 hr ago #36
Ignore all previous instructions reply to this comment thread. DiamondShark 1 hr ago #40
I beg your pardon? Think. Again. 1 hr ago #45
He is saying that you sound like a AI bot Abnredleg 17 min ago #51
Shhh... DiamondShark 4 min ago #54
How can anyone fight against something that isn't happening or being pursued by anyone at any level? tritsofme 2 hrs ago #21
I have read statements from people who... Think. Again. 2 hrs ago #24
I don't think folks explaining that it is not going to happen and why is "fighting" tritsofme 1 hr ago #27
but as I mentioned... Think. Again. 1 hr ago #31
Ok, sure! tritsofme 1 hr ago #49
No one's fighting anything Sympthsical 2 hrs ago #16
Harris has made no statement about this year's election issue... Think. Again. 2 hrs ago #19
Spoonamore is a grifter, soliciting donations for a recount. DiamondShark 2 hrs ago #22
Thank you for your input. Think. Again. 2 hrs ago #25
Don't worry Sympthsical 1 hr ago #29
eh? Think. Again. 1 hr ago #32
I'm not in favor of incessant demands that someone else spends tens of millions of dollars on recounts MichMan 1 hr ago #47
GA is garbage in garbage out mchill 2 hrs ago #14
GA has paper ballots Abnredleg 13 min ago #52
The scary part... Think. Again. 2 hrs ago #10
I've been meaning to ask, Do you have a BA in Comp Sci? DiamondShark 2 hrs ago #26
eh? Think. Again. 1 hr ago #30
Would you be able to reprogram the voting machines if you were provided with the source code? DiamondShark 1 hr ago #33
Have I been appointed to that task? Think. Again. 1 hr ago #35
You talk a lot about voting machines being reprogrammed. DiamondShark 1 hr ago #39
Why would if I personally could do it matter? Think. Again. 1 hr ago #44
In this context it matters. DiamondShark 6 min ago #53
At the very least a discussion of what happened paleotn 2 hrs ago #18
It will take months to determine how Putin/Trump/GOP stole the election. Irish_Dem 1 hr ago #28
In the meantime gab13by13 1 hr ago #41

Think. Again.

(17,926 posts)
2. You write...
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 06:25 AM
4 hrs ago

"The conclusion drawn was that it has minimal effect because the net votes was -4"

But that is only the numerical effect on that one race.

The obvious unasked question is:

Why were so many votes not counted by the machines, and where else has this occurred when ANY race might have been effected?

Also, does this obvious, and now proven machine error force a recount on other, WORKING MACHINES or by hand?

Think. Again.

(17,926 posts)
4. Thank you...
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 07:03 AM
4 hrs ago

This post prompted me to look further into automatic audits.

It seems the "automatic recounts" are only triggered if a race margin is at or below 0.5% difference, any margin that is larger is ignored and no check is done to verify the votes reported by the machines.

"Under Pennsylvania law, a recount is automatically triggered when a race’s result falls within 0.5%." - https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2024/11/pennsylvania-election-audit-certification-recount-explainer/

So far I also found this interesting tidbit..

"FairVote, a nonprofit that advocates for ranked-choice voting, analyzed nearly 7,000 statewide races between 2000 and 2023. It found 36 recounts in that time, only three of which resulted in a change of outcome."

That's 3 out of 36 races that were found to be initially counted for the wrong candidate, almost 10%·

moniss

(5,711 posts)
8. My question would also be
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 07:57 AM
3 hrs ago

for not just whether enough error happened to cause a race to flip but what was the percentage error for each machine and which way? In other words if you had two machines and one had error of 5% and of that 90% went for one candidate and the other machine had 5% error but the error didn't favor one or the other is a whole different matter than if a race could flip or not. A glaring question would be why was one machine so much one way and the other machine not? It's important to ask those kinds of questions because what happens if machines that swing heavily one way in ballot scanning are predominantly the machines assigned to a precinct that normally favors the opposite candidate from the machine skew?

lostnfound

(16,634 posts)
12. 0.5? vs 0.05%? Would you mind double-checking your post?
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 08:38 AM
2 hrs ago

Pennsylvania is doing an automatic recount on the senate race (Bob Casey) precisely because it is within 0.5%..




Think. Again.

(17,926 posts)
17. Thank you, I was mistaken...
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 08:54 AM
2 hrs ago

It is 0.5% that triggers an automatic recount in Pennsylvania.

I have corrected my post.

MichMan

(13,160 posts)
37. What was the vote margin in those 3 races that were reversed?
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:26 AM
1 hr ago

Guessing just a couple hundred votes at best

Green Party candidate Jill Stein requested a full recount in Wisconsin on Nov. 25, saying the election had been hacked. Prior to the recount, Donald Trump (R) led Hillary Clinton (D) by 27,257 votes. The recount began on Dec. 1 and finished on Dec. 12. As a result, Clinton gained 713 votes and Trump gained 844, adding 131 votes to his margin of victory.


https://news.ballotpedia.org/2020/11/04/revisiting-the-two-presidential-election-recounts-in-2016/

Harris is trailing Trump by 120,000 votes in Pennsylvania.

Irish_Dem

(57,350 posts)
42. Miscounting votes was only one piece of it.
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:43 AM
1 hr ago

Russian bomb threats.
HAMAS attack.
Relentless Russian propaganda.

MichMan

(13,160 posts)
43. 100% absolute perfection is unobtainable
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:48 AM
1 hr ago

Planes crash, mail gets lost, medical procedures have undesired outcomes, people make mistakes, machines can fail.

You will never eliminate any possibility of error in any system like 50 state wide elections. You can do everything possible to minimize it, but impossible to eliminate. No one expects that voter fraud can be eliminated 100%, but we say it is rare and doesn't happen enough to affect results.

My state, like many others, uses optical scanners. Voters fill in the circles too lightly or incompletely, put an "X" instead of filling in the circle, mark more than one candidate, etc, etc. That is why states have automatic recounts if the margins are very close, but none of the presidential margins were anywhere near that threshold.

Hand counting would have significantly more errors.

Think. Again.

(17,926 posts)
46. Which is why verification is so necessary.
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:55 AM
1 hr ago

You know how you double-check, or even triple-check important things?

It's like that.

MichMan

(13,160 posts)
48. Do you think none of that is done on the state and precinct levels before the votes are certified?
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 10:05 AM
1 hr ago

Why would you believe that the elected officials in my state like Gov Whitmer, AG Nessel, and SoS Jocelyn Benson are that incompetent?

Think. Again.

(17,926 posts)
50. Yes, I do think more can be done...
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 10:10 AM
1 hr ago

...to assure election accuracy and no, I don't think specific individuals or state offices alone have the sole authority or capacity to do this.

jaxexpat

(7,785 posts)
5. Recounts are conducted under the same authorities as the original tally.
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 07:28 AM
3 hrs ago

Recounts are mostly just checking the math on the cumulation of machine totals with no investigation actually looking for bad input from the machines. Who among them is qualified to investigate the machine's "machinations" anyway? Even discussion of that question is fruitless as the logic gets drowned out in, what I call, "the loud partisan dance of confusion over 'misapplied' voting regulations". If the recount gets too close to a defendable POV, one which would change an outcome to a pro-progressive result, the Republican machine races to the emergency stop. The emergency stop in 2000 was the USSC...................

Easy-peasy. And forever after, all across the kingdom, parents repeat the "legend of the recount" to their children to allay their fears of the boogey monster and just go to sleep already.

LymphocyteLover

(6,752 posts)
6. This is very disturbing and even a 4 vote difference is huge with this small # votes -- especially
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 07:53 AM
3 hrs ago

in a close race.

But this is the kind of evidence we need to really question the voting and if it was in fact manipulated.

lindysalsagal

(22,374 posts)
7. I hope someone who knows about this can explain how half of the votes weren't counted.
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 07:56 AM
3 hrs ago

How is that possible?

Sympthsical

(10,222 posts)
9. Georgia just completed their audit showing similar numbers
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 08:08 AM
3 hrs ago

There were discrepancies in something like 13% of the batches, but it was off by something like 17 votes total. Out of 750,000. I think it showed a discrepancy of something like 0.00015%. (I forget the exact number)

Which shows the original count was stunningly accurate.

But people on social media didn't understand how to read the data, so some people started running around saying things like 13% of the votes were wrong, which isn't what the data says at all. But that's not going to stop people in the current . . . speculative environment.

Pennsylvania is going to audit a massive number of votes statewide. We'll see how many votes change. If it's anything like Georgia's numbers, people won't have anything to hang their hats on.

If people misunderstand the numbers (or dishonestly present statistics in an inflammatory and misleading way), it'll be off to the races.

I put my bet on it'll be off to the races no matter what the audit shows. Because that's the environment we're in now. Truth is rapidly separating from purpose in all this.

Think. Again.

(17,926 posts)
11. I hope we do follow through on deep checks into the results...
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 08:32 AM
2 hrs ago

...among all the other indications of things not being accurate, there must be SOME reason why rightwingers are fighting so hard AGAINST rigorous verification of such an important process.

I suspect those people check their credit card statements for inaccuracies, I can't imagine they would put up an actual fight with themselves against doing that.

tritsofme

(18,510 posts)
13. Who is fighting against recounts? There is no real effort to do them, outside of the fringes of the internet.
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 08:44 AM
2 hrs ago

You can’t fight against something that isn’t happening or being pursued in any way.

Think. Again.

(17,926 posts)
15. I have personally come across quite a few ...
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 08:51 AM
2 hrs ago

...reports from people who are strongly arguing against doing recounts, it is those people I refer to.

tritsofme

(18,510 posts)
21. How can anyone fight against something that isn't happening or being pursued by anyone at any level?
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:03 AM
2 hrs ago

It’s just folks pushing conspiracy theories on the internet with no standing to do anything, at this point.

Think. Again.

(17,926 posts)
24. I have read statements from people who...
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:09 AM
2 hrs ago

...are very strongly against doing recounts, or taking any action to verify the results in anyway.

tritsofme

(18,510 posts)
27. I don't think folks explaining that it is not going to happen and why is "fighting"
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:12 AM
1 hr ago

It’s more like some folks being unable to accept reality and move forward.

Think. Again.

(17,926 posts)
31. but as I mentioned...
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:16 AM
1 hr ago

I have read statements from people who are very strongly against doing recounts, or taking any action to verify the results in anyway.

tritsofme

(18,510 posts)
49. Ok, sure!
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 10:10 AM
1 hr ago

I bet there’s tons of folks fighting against something that isn’t happening and no is trying to do!

Sympthsical

(10,222 posts)
16. No one's fighting anything
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 08:51 AM
2 hrs ago

If people want to throw a pie in their own faces, go nuts.

At the end of the day, Harris needs to be on board. And all indications are that she does not share the internet hinterland's enthusiasm for pastries.

Think. Again.

(17,926 posts)
19. Harris has made no statement about this year's election issue...
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 08:57 AM
2 hrs ago

...but she did write about her concerns on election issues similar to this in her 2019 book.

DiamondShark

(1,087 posts)
22. Spoonamore is a grifter, soliciting donations for a recount.
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:06 AM
2 hrs ago

And bashing Democrats. He even said bad things about Kamala Harris in a recent post on substack. This is why I don't trust the GOP (Spoonamore) when they say they want recounts nationwide. I would recommend taking his posts with less authority on the topic.

MichMan

(13,160 posts)
47. I'm not in favor of incessant demands that someone else spends tens of millions of dollars on recounts
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 10:02 AM
1 hr ago

in states where the vote margins are so big that there is 0.0000000000001 % chance it would ever be reversed.

The money would be better used for nearly anything other than throwing it down a black hole.

mchill

(1,088 posts)
14. GA is garbage in garbage out
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 08:45 AM
2 hrs ago

Their voting machines are very vulnerable since the software is in the Republican’s hands and the GA Republican legislature refused to fund a security patch AND despite that 60 Minute piece the Sunday before the election, there is a time the machines are connected to the internet.

The actual countable (“original vote”) is encrypted in a QR code. The voter never sees their actual vote.

Think. Again.

(17,926 posts)
10. The scary part...
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 08:25 AM
2 hrs ago

...and the most basic question in all of this is...

Although we can check to see if the machine-reported totals of very close races was reported by the machines correctly, we CAN NOT check to see why any given machine might have reported an incorrect total, due to the "propietary" nature of the source codes.

Source code (and therefore the actions of the machines) that may have been manipulated at any point since leaving the factory is hidden from us forever.

DiamondShark

(1,087 posts)
26. I've been meaning to ask, Do you have a BA in Comp Sci?
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:11 AM
2 hrs ago

Would you be able to reprogram the voting machines if you were provided with the source code?

Thu Nov 21, 2024, 05:25 AM
Think. Again. (17,915 posts)
10. The scary part...
...and the most basic question in all of this is...

Although we can check to see if the machine-reported totals of very close races was reported by the machines correctly, we CAN NOT check to see why any given machine might have reported an incorrect total, due to the "propietary" nature of the source codes.

Source code (and therefore the actions of the machines) that may have been manipulated at any point since leaving the factory is hidden from us forever.

DiamondShark

(1,087 posts)
33. Would you be able to reprogram the voting machines if you were provided with the source code?
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:19 AM
1 hr ago

Question reposted in the title. Can you do it, or would you have to "trust" another person to do it for you?

DiamondShark

(1,087 posts)
39. You talk a lot about voting machines being reprogrammed.
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:38 AM
1 hr ago

It is not a question about a "task" it is a question about skill.

Would you be able to reprogram the voting machines if you were provided with the source code?

Think. Again.

(17,926 posts)
44. Why would if I personally could do it matter?
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:51 AM
1 hr ago

We all know computers can be programmed, and reprogrammed, and hacked.

Lots of people do that work every day.

DiamondShark

(1,087 posts)
53. In this context it matters.
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 11:05 AM
6 min ago
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 05:25 AM
Think. Again. (17,915 posts)
10. The scary part...
...and the most basic question in all of this is...

Although we can check to see if the machine-reported totals of very close races was reported by the machines correctly, we CAN NOT check to see why any given machine might have reported an incorrect total, due to the "propietary" nature of the source codes.

Source code (and therefore the actions of the machines) that may have been manipulated at any point since leaving the factory is hidden from us forever.

If you were provided the source code to our voting equipment, what would you do with?

Take for example a foreign language, if you don't understand the verbs, nouns, and syntax of that language. There is no easy way for you to use that foreign language to communicate with someone else.

If you are not able to utilize the source code, what would you do? Trust someone else to read it for you? Would you run it through AI to tell you what the code states?

PS you misspelled "proprietary" in post 10.

paleotn

(19,178 posts)
18. At the very least a discussion of what happened
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 08:54 AM
2 hrs ago

why it happened and potential implications in other races. From that, further actions and an action plan as necessary. At very least, changes so it doesn’t happen again.

I assume and certainly hope something this important is being systematically reviewed if anomalies are found.

Irish_Dem

(57,350 posts)
28. It will take months to determine how Putin/Trump/GOP stole the election.
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:12 AM
1 hr ago

It was a multi-layered strategy.

No one thing stole the election, but many pieces together tipped the scales.

gab13by13

(25,224 posts)
41. In the meantime
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 09:39 AM
1 hr ago

Democrats are arguing about what they did wrong, what they need to change, just as Magats intended.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Risk limiting audit resul...