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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsRisk limiting audit results from PRIMARY in Pennsylvania - one batch showed half of the votes had not been counted
Was looking to see if the risk limiting audits were done yet for Pennsylvania. They havent been (tomorrow they report ), but i looked at the ones for the primary race in April.
I would expect that out of roughly 60 batches/precincts that are run through scanners in an audit you might find one or two batches that are off by 1 or 2 votes. And indeed there were 2 batches which are discrepant. One by just one vote, but the other showed that half of its votes werent counted.
The race chosen was treasurer, and the results of the Pennsylvania risk limiting audit shows this:
Allegheny county, Franklin Pk Ward 3 Dist 1 - 1
Audit: RYAN BIZZARRO: 29; ERIN MCCLELLAND: 36
Reported: RYAN BIZZARRO: 14; ERIN MCCLELLAND: 17
Net: RYAN BIZZARRO: -15; ERIN MCCLELLAND: -19 -4
Just thought it was interesting. The conclusion drawn was that it has minimal effect because the net votes was -4. But If similar results appear this time in a down ballot race, id want to understand the mechanism and implications for the top of the ticket.
questionseverything
(10,138 posts)Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)"The conclusion drawn was that it has minimal effect because the net votes was -4"
But that is only the numerical effect on that one race.
The obvious unasked question is:
Why were so many votes not counted by the machines, and where else has this occurred when ANY race might have been effected?
Also, does this obvious, and now proven machine error force a recount on other, WORKING MACHINES or by hand?
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)This post prompted me to look further into automatic audits.
It seems the "automatic recounts" are only triggered if a race margin is at or below 0.5% difference, any margin that is larger is ignored and no check is done to verify the votes reported by the machines.
"Under Pennsylvania law, a recount is automatically triggered when a races result falls within 0.5%." - https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2024/11/pennsylvania-election-audit-certification-recount-explainer/
So far I also found this interesting tidbit..
"FairVote, a nonprofit that advocates for ranked-choice voting, analyzed nearly 7,000 statewide races between 2000 and 2023. It found 36 recounts in that time, only three of which resulted in a change of outcome."
That's 3 out of 36 races that were found to be initially counted for the wrong candidate, almost 10%·
moniss
(5,711 posts)for not just whether enough error happened to cause a race to flip but what was the percentage error for each machine and which way? In other words if you had two machines and one had error of 5% and of that 90% went for one candidate and the other machine had 5% error but the error didn't favor one or the other is a whole different matter than if a race could flip or not. A glaring question would be why was one machine so much one way and the other machine not? It's important to ask those kinds of questions because what happens if machines that swing heavily one way in ballot scanning are predominantly the machines assigned to a precinct that normally favors the opposite candidate from the machine skew?
lostnfound
(16,634 posts)Pennsylvania is doing an automatic recount on the senate race (Bob Casey) precisely because it is within 0.5%..
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)It is 0.5% that triggers an automatic recount in Pennsylvania.
I have corrected my post.
MichMan
(13,160 posts)Guessing just a couple hundred votes at best
https://news.ballotpedia.org/2020/11/04/revisiting-the-two-presidential-election-recounts-in-2016/
Harris is trailing Trump by 120,000 votes in Pennsylvania.
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)...is that the machines are miscounting at all.
Irish_Dem
(57,350 posts)Russian bomb threats.
HAMAS attack.
Relentless Russian propaganda.
MichMan
(13,160 posts)Planes crash, mail gets lost, medical procedures have undesired outcomes, people make mistakes, machines can fail.
You will never eliminate any possibility of error in any system like 50 state wide elections. You can do everything possible to minimize it, but impossible to eliminate. No one expects that voter fraud can be eliminated 100%, but we say it is rare and doesn't happen enough to affect results.
My state, like many others, uses optical scanners. Voters fill in the circles too lightly or incompletely, put an "X" instead of filling in the circle, mark more than one candidate, etc, etc. That is why states have automatic recounts if the margins are very close, but none of the presidential margins were anywhere near that threshold.
Hand counting would have significantly more errors.
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)You know how you double-check, or even triple-check important things?
It's like that.
MichMan
(13,160 posts)Why would you believe that the elected officials in my state like Gov Whitmer, AG Nessel, and SoS Jocelyn Benson are that incompetent?
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)...to assure election accuracy and no, I don't think specific individuals or state offices alone have the sole authority or capacity to do this.
jaxexpat
(7,785 posts)Recounts are mostly just checking the math on the cumulation of machine totals with no investigation actually looking for bad input from the machines. Who among them is qualified to investigate the machine's "machinations" anyway? Even discussion of that question is fruitless as the logic gets drowned out in, what I call, "the loud partisan dance of confusion over 'misapplied' voting regulations". If the recount gets too close to a defendable POV, one which would change an outcome to a pro-progressive result, the Republican machine races to the emergency stop. The emergency stop in 2000 was the USSC...................
Easy-peasy. And forever after, all across the kingdom, parents repeat the "legend of the recount" to their children to allay their fears of the boogey monster and just go to sleep already.
LymphocyteLover
(6,752 posts)in a close race.
But this is the kind of evidence we need to really question the voting and if it was in fact manipulated.
lindysalsagal
(22,374 posts)How is that possible?
Sympthsical
(10,222 posts)There were discrepancies in something like 13% of the batches, but it was off by something like 17 votes total. Out of 750,000. I think it showed a discrepancy of something like 0.00015%. (I forget the exact number)
Which shows the original count was stunningly accurate.
But people on social media didn't understand how to read the data, so some people started running around saying things like 13% of the votes were wrong, which isn't what the data says at all. But that's not going to stop people in the current . . . speculative environment.
Pennsylvania is going to audit a massive number of votes statewide. We'll see how many votes change. If it's anything like Georgia's numbers, people won't have anything to hang their hats on.
If people misunderstand the numbers (or dishonestly present statistics in an inflammatory and misleading way), it'll be off to the races.
I put my bet on it'll be off to the races no matter what the audit shows. Because that's the environment we're in now. Truth is rapidly separating from purpose in all this.
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)...among all the other indications of things not being accurate, there must be SOME reason why rightwingers are fighting so hard AGAINST rigorous verification of such an important process.
I suspect those people check their credit card statements for inaccuracies, I can't imagine they would put up an actual fight with themselves against doing that.
tritsofme
(18,510 posts)You cant fight against something that isnt happening or being pursued in any way.
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)...reports from people who are strongly arguing against doing recounts, it is those people I refer to.
DiamondShark
(1,087 posts)Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)DiamondShark
(1,087 posts)Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)DiamondShark
(1,087 posts)Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)Abnredleg
(938 posts)His messages are Chat GPT code.
DiamondShark
(1,087 posts)Don't give away secrets.
tritsofme
(18,510 posts)Its just folks pushing conspiracy theories on the internet with no standing to do anything, at this point.
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)...are very strongly against doing recounts, or taking any action to verify the results in anyway.
tritsofme
(18,510 posts)Its more like some folks being unable to accept reality and move forward.
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)I have read statements from people who are very strongly against doing recounts, or taking any action to verify the results in anyway.
tritsofme
(18,510 posts)I bet theres tons of folks fighting against something that isnt happening and no is trying to do!
Sympthsical
(10,222 posts)If people want to throw a pie in their own faces, go nuts.
At the end of the day, Harris needs to be on board. And all indications are that she does not share the internet hinterland's enthusiasm for pastries.
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)...but she did write about her concerns on election issues similar to this in her 2019 book.
DiamondShark
(1,087 posts)And bashing Democrats. He even said bad things about Kamala Harris in a recent post on substack. This is why I don't trust the GOP (Spoonamore) when they say they want recounts nationwide. I would recommend taking his posts with less authority on the topic.
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)Sympthsical
(10,222 posts)Dad will be back from the store with those milk and cigarettes any minute now.
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)MichMan
(13,160 posts)in states where the vote margins are so big that there is 0.0000000000001 % chance it would ever be reversed.
The money would be better used for nearly anything other than throwing it down a black hole.
mchill
(1,088 posts)Their voting machines are very vulnerable since the software is in the Republicans hands and the GA Republican legislature refused to fund a security patch AND despite that 60 Minute piece the Sunday before the election, there is a time the machines are connected to the internet.
The actual countable (original vote) is encrypted in a QR code. The voter never sees their actual vote.
Abnredleg
(938 posts)and the paper ballots are compared to the tabulator numbers during post election audits.
https://sos.ga.gov:8443/news/voters-around-georgia-love-new-paper-ballot-voting-system
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)...and the most basic question in all of this is...
Although we can check to see if the machine-reported totals of very close races was reported by the machines correctly, we CAN NOT check to see why any given machine might have reported an incorrect total, due to the "propietary" nature of the source codes.
Source code (and therefore the actions of the machines) that may have been manipulated at any point since leaving the factory is hidden from us forever.
DiamondShark
(1,087 posts)Would you be able to reprogram the voting machines if you were provided with the source code?
Think. Again. (17,915 posts)
10. The scary part...
...and the most basic question in all of this is...
Although we can check to see if the machine-reported totals of very close races was reported by the machines correctly, we CAN NOT check to see why any given machine might have reported an incorrect total, due to the "propietary" nature of the source codes.
Source code (and therefore the actions of the machines) that may have been manipulated at any point since leaving the factory is hidden from us forever.
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)DiamondShark
(1,087 posts)Question reposted in the title. Can you do it, or would you have to "trust" another person to do it for you?
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)I need to check my email I guess...
DiamondShark
(1,087 posts)It is not a question about a "task" it is a question about skill.
Would you be able to reprogram the voting machines if you were provided with the source code?
Think. Again.
(17,926 posts)We all know computers can be programmed, and reprogrammed, and hacked.
Lots of people do that work every day.
DiamondShark
(1,087 posts)Think. Again. (17,915 posts)
10. The scary part...
...and the most basic question in all of this is...
Although we can check to see if the machine-reported totals of very close races was reported by the machines correctly, we CAN NOT check to see why any given machine might have reported an incorrect total, due to the "propietary" nature of the source codes.
Source code (and therefore the actions of the machines) that may have been manipulated at any point since leaving the factory is hidden from us forever.
If you were provided the source code to our voting equipment, what would you do with?
Take for example a foreign language, if you don't understand the verbs, nouns, and syntax of that language. There is no easy way for you to use that foreign language to communicate with someone else.
If you are not able to utilize the source code, what would you do? Trust someone else to read it for you? Would you run it through AI to tell you what the code states?
PS you misspelled "proprietary" in post 10.
paleotn
(19,178 posts)why it happened and potential implications in other races. From that, further actions and an action plan as necessary. At very least, changes so it doesnt happen again.
I assume and certainly hope something this important is being systematically reviewed if anomalies are found.
Irish_Dem
(57,350 posts)It was a multi-layered strategy.
No one thing stole the election, but many pieces together tipped the scales.
gab13by13
(25,224 posts)Democrats are arguing about what they did wrong, what they need to change, just as Magats intended.