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Passages

(1,681 posts)
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 11:52 AM Jan 12

New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States ( 2020 )

Last edited Sun Jan 12, 2025, 12:32 PM - Edit history (1)

by Al Shaw, Abrahm Lustgarten, ProPublica, and Jeremy W. Goldsmith, Special to ProPublica, September 15, 2020.

ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.

According to new data from the Rhodium Group analyzed by ProPublica and The New York Times Magazine, warming temperatures and changing rainfall will drive agriculture and temperate climates northward, while sea level rise will consume coastlines and dangerous levels of humidity will swamp the Mississippi River valley.

Taken with other recent research showing that the most habitable climate in North America will shift northward and the incidence of large fires will increase across the country, this suggests that the climate crisis will profoundly interrupt the way we live and farm in the United States. See how the North American places where humans have lived for thousands of years will shift and what changes are in store for your county.
https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/?utm_campaign=propublica-sprout&utm_content=1736697600&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Good time for a review.

32 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States ( 2020 ) (Original Post) Passages Jan 12 OP
Everyone will want to move north dalton99a Jan 12 #1
Yes. I keep reading responses to Cal. fires and rebuilding. Passages Jan 12 #5
I could believe this is happening already DENVERPOPS Jan 12 #10
Do you think Colorado will eventually be far enough north? I'm afraid it's too dry. LauraInLA Jan 12 #11
The state of Colorado has been experiencing a 20 year plus mega drought Mountain Mule Jan 12 #16
Hey MM DENVERPOPS Jan 12 #23
Yep, I tend to be conservative in what I post Mountain Mule Jan 12 #25
No DENVERPOPS Jan 12 #17
Hard agree! And Phoenix is a huge blight on the state and region -- with apologies to LauraInLA Jan 12 #26
There is a "pact" DENVERPOPS Jan 12 #28
Stunning. BoRaGard Jan 12 #2
WYOMING looking damn good. WarGamer Jan 12 #3
I'd bet it will still be too dry ;(. LauraInLA Jan 12 #12
Not really DENVERPOPS Jan 12 #19
Yes... but I've always ran away during the winter. WarGamer Jan 12 #20
Smart man DENVERPOPS Jan 12 #22
Good info - thanks! cilla4progress Jan 12 #4
Yes, you can sort the list by county. It takes awhile, especially if you are on a phone. LeftInTX Jan 12 #8
Thanks! cilla4progress Jan 12 #9
That's why Trump wants Canada? NameAlreadyTaken Jan 12 #6
From Ohio Valley North, the old Rust Belt multigraincracker Jan 12 #7
I'm an avid gardener and tree planter in southeast Minnesota NickB79 Jan 12 #13
Very interesting Seinan Sensei Jan 12 #14
Quite a few shingle oaks VGNonly Jan 12 #24
"Farming the Woods" talks about the northward drift of climate GreatGazoo Jan 12 #30
It is going to get a lot worse Old Crank Jan 12 #15
Seeing current LA fires, this climate map seems to underestimate fire potential there wishstar Jan 12 #18
I'm happy to be living in southwestern Pennsylvania FakeNoose Jan 12 #21
Hawaii is not on these maps nor on county list either. Selectively part of the US I guess. We must keep eyes on prize mahina Jan 12 #27
Canada is going to need to build a wall! roamer65 Jan 12 #29
Good, useful data in table, thanks nt lostnfound Jan 13 #31
Thanks for posting, Passages, that was an educational. C0RI0LANUS Jan 13 #32

Passages

(1,681 posts)
5. Yes. I keep reading responses to Cal. fires and rebuilding.
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 12:34 PM
Jan 12

How in the world will that be sustainable, and who is going to insure those homes??

DENVERPOPS

(10,617 posts)
10. I could believe this is happening already
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 01:53 PM
Jan 12

Colorado is experiencing a HUGE spurt of growth. Everywhere I drive, I see tons of license plates from Texas, Florida, Arizona, California......and it is NOT tourist season............

Mountain Mule

(1,077 posts)
16. The state of Colorado has been experiencing a 20 year plus mega drought
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 02:48 PM
Jan 12

The 30 million people who depend upon the Colorado River system are in for a rude awakening in the not so distant future. I give the state at most 20 years before it all begins to unravel.

DENVERPOPS

(10,617 posts)
23. Hey MM
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 03:16 PM
Jan 12

You are a whole lot more optimistic than I am. At the rate the temperatures are rising, and the moisture is diminishing, at most I will give it ten.

The past few years, a few massive late spring snow storms are all that saved those downstream Colorado River folks......

All of us Colorado life time skiers and winter mountaineers have all commented that those two activities are heading for demise in the soon to be future years.......

LOL, it is January, and we are still having intermittent RED FLAG wildfire warnings along the front range mountains......Wow

Hang in there MM, and try to stay safe!

Mountain Mule

(1,077 posts)
25. Yep, I tend to be conservative in what I post
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 03:38 PM
Jan 12

For fear of being taken for a climate change fanatic. But I have to agree with you - in ten years time Colorado and the rest of the West will very likely be facing severe water shortages. I live in the southwestern part of our state which has been severely impacted by rising temperatures and decreasing rain. The lack of snow on the San Juan mountains and the La Platas is just downright scary.

DENVERPOPS

(10,617 posts)
17. No
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 02:48 PM
Jan 12

I agree that Colorado is warming up considerably this past 10-15-20 years. Especially the eastern part of the state which needs huge amounts of irrigation water for crops...... However, our mountain snowpack continues to be the the only thing that allows Phoenix, Las Vegas, and parts of SCal, to even be populated, and survive.......

That having been said, Lake Mead and Lake Powell are at their lowest levels EVER since they were originally filled, due to the Colorado Snow pack runoff being smaller every year.......And the levels have continued every year to decline.....

If the water level in Lake Mead gets low enough, they will have to shut off the Hydro electric generators that supply Vegas.....
Imagine a dark Vegas, with no air conditioning.......

Interesting that we here in Colorado, home of the massive Colorado River, have been under serious "water restrictions" for decades now, and downstream, they are just now starting to instigate somewhat minor water restrictions in Major cities along the Colorado River. When you fly out of Phoenix, just look down and look at the 30?-40?-50? green, irrigated golf courses, and the swimming pools in every back yard, along with all the green residential lawns.....LOL
The Governor of Arizona, or Mayor of Phoenix a year or two ago, at the end of summer pleaded with the governor of Colorado to please send them more water right away, they were running out. LOL.......what????? Do they just think Colorado "manufacturers" the water at will???????LOL LOL LOL In the meantime, both Vegas and Phoenix, as well as SCal just keep developing and developing and developing to increase their economy and tax revenues......

On a side note, I have been watching Florida which is being flooded with Northerners and MAGAots. Their potable/fresh water supply is increasingly in serious threat from salt water intrusion into the declining aquifer, their fresh water underground "water table" being depleted from overuse, further every single year....Beyond this, add in the Hurricane damage, and flooding damages which are radically increasing every year. That, along with the inability to insure structures, which interrupts development of any kind, residential or commercial, and a Humongous Crisis is just around the corner for all of Florida.......

LauraInLA

(1,668 posts)
26. Hard agree! And Phoenix is a huge blight on the state and region -- with apologies to
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 03:42 PM
Jan 12

any residents posting here.

DENVERPOPS

(10,617 posts)
28. There is a "pact"
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 08:28 PM
Jan 12

by everyone on the Colorado River. The pact is an agreement by everyone from the high rockies to the Mexican border how much their share of the water is for use.

Like 3-4-5 years ago, I remember reading that they found Phoenix was using close to twice what they were allocated, to guarantee their ability for massive expansion and developments in the Phoenix area. Evidently it had been going on for years.

No Water......No developments,........... especially the residential sprawl, which takes a whole big bunch of water....

DENVERPOPS

(10,617 posts)
19. Not really
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 02:52 PM
Jan 12

have you ever been to Wyoming in the Winter, or tried to talk to anyone living there, given the highest population of Republicans of any state????

WarGamer

(16,142 posts)
20. Yes... but I've always ran away during the winter.
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 02:55 PM
Jan 12

But this topic is about the changing climate and as climate change moves North... Wyoming just might gain a growing season and some precipitation.

DENVERPOPS

(10,617 posts)
22. Smart man
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 03:08 PM
Jan 12

I would spend a month each summer, since I was 18, in late August fly fishing on the North Platte near Saratoga.
The best thing was that by that time, the mosquitoes, the size of birds, had mostly died off......LOL

LeftInTX

(32,025 posts)
8. Yes, you can sort the list by county. It takes awhile, especially if you are on a phone.
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 12:54 PM
Jan 12

The counties are sorted alpha by state.

NickB79

(19,735 posts)
13. I'm an avid gardener and tree planter in southeast Minnesota
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 02:11 PM
Jan 12

5 years ago, I stopped buying tree seedlings for my land from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources and our County Soil and Water Conservation district, which they propagate from local tree populations.

Instead, I started buying seedlings from the Missouri DNR, grown from populations hundreds of miles south of Minneapolis. And I mean I buy and plant HUNDREDS of seedlings, from dozens of species.

At the same time, I started buying tree seeds as well to grow hundreds more trees, from Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois. A lot I obtained from fellow gardeners off Facebook.

I'm terrified how well the species never before grown here are doing. Pawpaws, persimmons, peaches, bald cypress, pecans, flowering dogwood, silverbell, sweetgum, shingle oak, tulip poplar, redbud, osage orange, etc. 25 yr ago they wouldn't have lasted a winter, but now they're thriving. My land's species diversity looks more like Missouri than Minnesota at this point. I've actually started a small side business selling extra tree seedlings to fellow climate-aware gardeners.

The USDA map upgraded us to zone 5 last year, but I have a sneaking suspicion that we'll be zone 6 in just a few years at this rate.

Seinan Sensei

(810 posts)
14. Very interesting
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 02:25 PM
Jan 12

Makes sense. You've got me curious. I'll have to look into USDA projections for myself.
(BTW, my personal fav is the Bald Cypress)

VGNonly

(7,907 posts)
24. Quite a few shingle oaks
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 03:20 PM
Jan 12

around me, also a lot of pin oaks. Both are good for the north tending "tree migration".

I've been collecting more acorns, leaching out the tannins, and eating the nut crops. Good stuff! To me the red oak groups mostly taste better than the white oak groups.

GreatGazoo

(4,043 posts)
30. "Farming the Woods" talks about the northward drift of climate
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 10:12 PM
Jan 12

and has a map that overlays Georgia's climate onto NY state. They suggest, among other things, growing ducks and mushrooms together in forested areas.

Farming the Woods: An Integrated Permaculture Approach to Growing Food and Medicinals in Temperate Forests
https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/farming-the-woods-ken-mudge/1120449161

Old Crank

(5,169 posts)
15. It is going to get a lot worse
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 02:41 PM
Jan 12

China is putting in solar like there is no tomorrow but still building coal plants because of the need.
trump and GOP policies might slow solar and wind in the US. I hope not. Evidently in Texas only solar and wind are going in because it is cheaper.
I'll be almost 90, if I make it, in 2040. In time to see if we have done enough... I would bet no at this point in time.

wishstar

(5,551 posts)
18. Seeing current LA fires, this climate map seems to underestimate fire potential there
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 02:49 PM
Jan 12

and despite Western NC/E Tennessee's mild weather with low humidity and no excessive heat, these areas suffered unprecedented significant loss of topsoil on many acres of farms along creeks and rivers from the excessive rainfall from Hurricane Helene which will reduce crop production for years to come. WNC/TN is also now extremely vulnerable to wildfires if drought conditions occur later on, due to the extreme amount of fallen tree debris in all the extensive wooded areas and forest lands.

mahina

(19,341 posts)
27. Hawaii is not on these maps nor on county list either. Selectively part of the US I guess. We must keep eyes on prize
Sun Jan 12, 2025, 03:45 PM
Jan 12

and not lose hope, though the fossil fuels economic interests will shortly have taken over the government, we don't have time for despair.

C0RI0LANUS

(2,667 posts)
32. Thanks for posting, Passages, that was an educational.
Mon Jan 13, 2025, 06:19 AM
Jan 13

In Cormac McCarthy's The Road, he doesn't write how the world dies. But he describes a barren, grey, ash- and soot-covered planet where nothing grows. McCarthy intimates that the world burned/dried itself up. Survival is either scavenging or cannibalism and finding potable water is a challenge.

Below are scenes from the 2009 film which paralleled the book precisely:





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