The year ahead in 10 election days

https://www.semafor.com/article/01/09/2025/the-year-ahead-in-10-election-days

The Scene

Republicans are preparing for at least two years of total control in Washington. Democrats are at the very beginning of a wilderness journey with no clear ending. This year’s elections won’t change that.

But across the country, from New England to Northern California, they will test the strength of the urban progressive movement that thrived in Donald Trump’s first term — and provide hints to how the 2026 midterms might play out. In two states, Republicans will try to defy history and elect governors who belong to the president’s party; in Virginia, that would mean electing the first Black female governor in America.

This is a rundown of the major races looming as the year begins, barring any new surprises. At this point eight years ago, no one was predicting a Democratic upset in Alabama’s US Senate race, but they got one.

The Races

Jan. 14: Minnesota will hold primaries in two districts that can shift control of the state legislature, both of them reliably blue — giving Republicans a fleeting chance to shape the agenda in St. Paul. Last month, a Democrat who won a seat in the capital’s suburbs resigned after a successful challenge to his residency, granting Republicans a one-seat House majority; the very next day, a Democratic state senator from Minneapolis died, leaving that chamber tied. Gov. Tim Walz scheduled quick replacement primaries, with elections following two weeks later.

snip