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Celerity

(47,156 posts) Tue Jan 14, 2025, 04:42 AM Yesterday

A New Year's Reality Check for Democrats: Vulnerable Democrats tack right on immigration.

https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/a-new-years-reality-check-for-democrats

Item number one for Mike Johnson and the GOP in 2025? A vote on the Laken Riley Act—an illegal immigration crackdown that would require Homeland Security to detain migrants arrested for burglary, theft, or shoplifting. The quick move from the newly (and narrowly) re-elected Speaker was no surprise. Voters handed the GOP unified control of the federal government in no small part because of their promise to control illegal immigration. And unsurprisingly, the bill received unanimous support from House Republicans—an easy win on an important issue.

More interesting is the fact that the bill was quite bipartisan. Forty-eight House Democrats crossed the aisle and voted for the bill. The overwhelming majority of Senate Democrats voted for cloture and Senators Ruben Gallego and John Fetterman even co-sponsored the bill.

Policy implications aside—and Democrats do have legitimate complaints about the bill’s content (namely protections for Dreamers)—voting for the bill was likely a smart political move. In November, three in four voters cited “the situation at the US-Mexico border” as an important factor in their presidential choice. These voters backed Trump by 24 points. Nearly a third of the electorate cited it as the single most important factor in their vote. These voters backed Trump by a staggering 63 points. For better or worse, Americans are demanding changes to immigration policy and Democrats must respond.

The House Democrats most likely to join their GOP colleagues? Those bound for tough races in 2026. Forty-one of the 48 “defectors” represent districts that voted for Harris by less than ten points. All but two Trump-district Democrats supported the bill (Nellie Pou and Gabe Vasquez were the holdouts). Also among the “yeas” are the strongest performing Democrats—members like Jared Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Frank Mrvan, and Marcy Kaptur. Time and time again they’ve shown that beating the presidential baseline requires bucking the party line on losing issues.

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3 replies

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A New Year's Reality Check for Democrats: Vulnerable Democrats tack right on immigration. (Original Post) Celerity Yesterday OP

This is a terrible bill. Please everybody call your senators to say NO on this bill awesomerwb1 Yesterday #1

Well... DeepWinter Yesterday #2

All you need is for someone to be falsely accused to have them sent to detainment. You agree with that? awesomerwb1 20 hrs ago #3

awesomerwb1

(4,638 posts)

1. This is a terrible bill. Please everybody call your senators to say NO on this bill

Reply to Celerity (Original post)

Tue Jan 14, 2025, 05:46 AM

Yesterday

It does away with innocent until proven guilty. Gives immigration powers to zealous AGs in red states to create immigration policies, something the Federal government does.

A simple "accusation" is all that would be needed to detain someone indefinitely before deported. This bill is ripe for abuse.

DeepWinter

(673 posts)

2. Well...

Reply to awesomerwb1 (Reply #1)

Tue Jan 14, 2025, 06:23 AM

Yesterday

"...would require Homeland Security to detain migrants arrested for burglary, theft, or shoplifting."

All things considered, you'll probably find a fair number of Democrats that are OK with this. 48 House Democrats are, and that does reflect something about the base as well. If you immigrated illegally I can still somehow work with you. If you immigrated illegally and are now commiting property crimes, I'm having less empathy.

OK, they're poor, broke, and resorting to crime as a last ditch effort. A compromise might have to be made to detain them, house them, feed them until we figure this out because the overall population isn't going to be OK with this and the optics for Democrats will look terrible pretending it's fine and acceptable.

awesomerwb1

(4,638 posts)

3. All you need is for someone to be falsely accused to have them sent to detainment. You agree with that?

Reply to DeepWinter (Reply #2)

Tue Jan 14, 2025, 01:20 PM

20 hrs ago

Please read the breakdowns by smarter people than me: From @indivisible.org

1) It imprisons immigrants indefinitely without due process

Accused of a minor offense, like shoplifting? Not convicted — just accused? You’re detained indefinitely.

2) It targets Dreamers and legal immigrants

Dreamers who grew up here, went to school here, and are part of our communities? Detained. Refugees fleeing violence? Detained. Even legal immigrants caught in bureaucratic limbo are swept up in this nightmare. This bill punishes everyone.

3) It hands MAGA extremists federal power

This bill gives people like Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton the ability to hijack federal immigration policy. He could demand federal judges lock up asylum seekers en masse or block visas for doctors, engineers, or students from entire countries.

Imagine one MAGA state deciding who can live and work in the United States. That’s what this bill allows.

4) It guts legal immigration

By letting courts impose blanket visa bans on entire countries, this bill risks shutting down legal immigration altogether.

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