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dalton99a

(92,076 posts)
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 07:14 AM Mar 2025

Trump Says a Recession Might Be Worth the Cost. Economists Disagree.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/business/economy/trump-recession-tariffs-inflation.html

https://archive.ph/i4Qcv

Trump Says a Recession Might Be Worth the Cost. Economists Disagree.
President Trump and his advisers say his policies may cause short-term pain but will produce big gains over time. Many economists are skeptical of those arguments.
By Ben Casselman
March 18, 2025, 5:02 a.m. ET

Presidents usually do all they can to avoid recessions, so much so that they avoid even saying the word.

But President Trump and his advisers in recent weeks have offered a very different message. Yes, a recession is possible, they have said. Maybe one wouldn’t even be that bad.

Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, has said Mr. Trump’s policies are “worth it” even if they cause a recession. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, has said the economy may need a “detox period” after becoming dependent on government spending. And Mr. Trump has said there will be a “period of transition” as his policies take effect.

Such comments may partly reflect an effort to align political statements with economic reality. Mr. Trump promised to end inflation “starting on Day 1” and declared, in his inaugural address, that “the golden age of America begins right now.”

Instead, inflation has remained stubborn, and while Mr. Trump has been in office less than two months, economists warn that his tariffs are likely to make it worse. Measures of consumer and business confidence have plummeted and stock prices have tumbled, attributable in large part to Mr. Trump’s policies and the uncertainty they have caused.

“It’s the kind of language that you use when your policy isn’t going great and you can see that it’s actively harming people,” said Sean Vanatta, a financial historian at the University of Glasgow in Scotland.

...


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Trump/Musk: "Poverty builds character. Trust us."


41 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Trump Says a Recession Might Be Worth the Cost. Economists Disagree. (Original Post) dalton99a Mar 2025 OP
Sure, so what if scores of folks die early intrepidity Mar 2025 #1
"All of you dying is a sacrifice I'm willing to make" durablend Mar 2025 #24
Not a conspiracist, but... Trexmaster Mar 2025 #36
Yeah, a recession "will produce big gains over time" for the billionaires who caused it. sop Mar 2025 #2
+1 dalton99a Mar 2025 #3
This economic genius has a history bankruptcies, failed business, fraud and grifting but he knows best Deuxcents Mar 2025 #4
Trump always promises the moon and delivers useless rocks. Lonestarblue Mar 2025 #5
I understand Trumps logic. chouchou Mar 2025 #6
"The comfort of the rich depends upon an abundant supply of the poor," Voltaire Ping Tung Mar 2025 #7
Trump only cares what Putin thinks, not economists Mysterian Mar 2025 #8
His maga Rebl2 Mar 2025 #23
Trump has his delusional minions believing that what he is doing is for their own good. It's his ultimate con. hadEnuf Mar 2025 #9
Trump: "My delicious Trump shit sandwich is really good for you!" Zorro Mar 2025 #11
It is absolutely amazing how these sycophants like to sit on the sidelines and directing the means to just turbinetree Mar 2025 #10
Recessions are kinda like war - easier to get into than out of...nt Wounded Bear Mar 2025 #12
Wealthy billionaires might think it's worth it IronLionZion Mar 2025 #13
Which I Don't Understand ProfessorGAC Mar 2025 #38
The wealthy like to buy low, whether it's stocks, labor, or equipment/materials IronLionZion Mar 2025 #39
Everybody Wealthy Isn't An Investor ProfessorGAC Mar 2025 #40
I would think more corporations would push back against tariffs and trade war eventually IronLionZion Mar 2025 #41
Hell Trump...lets go for a Depression! Rich people made a fortune off that disaster Bengus81 Mar 2025 #14
He also believes Work Will Make You Free. IrishAfricanAmerican Mar 2025 #15
+1 dalton99a Mar 2025 #16
So he's breaking his promises Owens Mar 2025 #17
The f**king moron never worked a f**king day in his damn life, how would the f**k he would know that a recession SWBTATTReg Mar 2025 #18
"detox period"?? what the hell is that? CTyankee Mar 2025 #19
JD Vance: "You should be thanking Trump for the recession". Yavin4 Mar 2025 #20
+1 dalton99a Mar 2025 #22
Lara Trump should be kissing the ass of everyone who's getting screwed over by Trump. raccoon Mar 2025 #35
Krasnov (R) is tossing America's economy in the krapper BoRaGard Mar 2025 #21
Coming up next: With a recession, Trump says that the U.S. is best suited by becoming a Russian state. usonian Mar 2025 #25
Who benefits from a recession and how? Irish_Dem Mar 2025 #26
Fuck off, billionaires Blue Owl Mar 2025 #27
In other words, "Other people may die while I consolidate power, but it's a sacrifice I'm willing to make" unblock Mar 2025 #28
If poverty builds character,that explains why neither of them have any. BattleRow Mar 2025 #29
Bad is good. Good is bad. The usual from the loser. twodogsbarking Mar 2025 #30
"short-term pain to get more long-term pain." SunSeeker Mar 2025 #31
+1 dalton99a Mar 2025 #32
It is 100% *NOT* worth the cost!!! Initech Mar 2025 #33
he needs to excuse his fucking up biden's economy. pansypoo53219 Mar 2025 #34
You don't need crypto-currencies or central bank digital currency to do a system reset Trexmaster Mar 2025 #37

intrepidity

(8,552 posts)
1. Sure, so what if scores of folks die early
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 07:19 AM
Mar 2025

Like with Covid. Oh well, it's the price we pay for their wealth.

 

Trexmaster

(63 posts)
36. Not a conspiracist, but...
Wed Mar 19, 2025, 05:29 AM
Mar 2025

I know, I know the saying already, that everything before "but" is insincere, though I don't know how to express myself without appearing a lunatic in this lunacy of a planet show.

So...

I'm not a conspiracist... but... I think COVID was meant to eliminate more people than it did. Of course, of course under the guise of an accident and pandemic. It didn't helped China, it didn't helped Asia, it didn't helped Europe, and it certainly didn't helped the US.

It didn't do much but create a crap show for everyone. It did killed people, I've witnessed it myself, but not apocalyptic levels of a shake-up. A lot more people were resilient, healthy as a horse, some others had a cold sympton, less than half needed more help, with the last category fighting between life or death.

Results? Officially (more, unofficially) almost 1 billion people got infected with only 8 million dying of Covid ––– all around the world.

So, they're mad.
They're incredibly mad that not as many people died - we're 8 billion, for goodness' sake. They're mad on you and me for not dropping dead, gasping for air. They're mad at us.

They're still hinging whether to start a world war or not, or to try different pathogens all over again, or torture us through bleak economic forecasts & crises.


We're now, each one of us individually or together more or less, in a demented competition in avoiding from being killed off imperceptibly by the grand TPTB.

A lot are afraid of death, prisons, beatings etc., so don't expect protests & marches to fix a damn thing.

sop

(17,400 posts)
2. Yeah, a recession "will produce big gains over time" for the billionaires who caused it.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 07:25 AM
Mar 2025

Everyone else will be fucked.

Deuxcents

(25,489 posts)
4. This economic genius has a history bankruptcies, failed business, fraud and grifting but he knows best
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 09:36 AM
Mar 2025

chouchou

(2,797 posts)
6. I understand Trumps logic.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 10:42 AM
Mar 2025

It's akin to when my husband ran over my toes with the lawnmower. BUT, since I had athletes foot, everything is OK !!
(the above is sarcasm)

Ping Tung

(4,137 posts)
7. "The comfort of the rich depends upon an abundant supply of the poor," Voltaire
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 10:47 AM
Mar 2025

To achieve that end,, a recession would be a helpful tool.

Mysterian

(6,169 posts)
8. Trump only cares what Putin thinks, not economists
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 10:58 AM
Mar 2025

Trump's agenda is to damage the USA for Putin and to seize power for himself.

Rebl2

(17,397 posts)
23. His maga
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 04:08 PM
Mar 2025

Voters care about the economy. He promised them to make things better when he was elected and so far he has done squat to make things better. All he’s done is fired a lot of government employees including maga government employees who are now in the FAFO phase. He is frightening those of us on SS and Medicare, and I am sure those maga people are not thrilled about possibly losing part or all of their SS and Medicare.

hadEnuf

(3,521 posts)
9. Trump has his delusional minions believing that what he is doing is for their own good. It's his ultimate con.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 11:28 AM
Mar 2025

People are so spoiled by the entitlements that have been around for all their lives as well as their parents and grandparents lives that they think they are part of the Constitution or something. They have no idea how hard these entitlements were fought for and what it was like before they came about. Just a few grainy b/w photos of people sitting in front of shacks looking grim with a few tumbleweeds rolling by, while right-wing media tells them it was all fake and staged. And most of the adults who lived through it are gone.

This is a snow job on an unwitting, under educated and half brainwashed population. They won't learn until they have had their noses rubbed in the dog shit, hard. Unfortunately, by the time they wake up, 3/4 of their rights may be gone along with the economic despair they will be dealing with.

turbinetree

(26,975 posts)
10. It is absolutely amazing how these sycophants like to sit on the sidelines and directing the means to just
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 11:34 AM
Mar 2025

hurt people and then laugh while playing golf..............on other peoples dime.............fuck them and that horse they ride.........detox period...........

IronLionZion

(50,815 posts)
13. Wealthy billionaires might think it's worth it
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 12:31 PM
Mar 2025

everyone else might suffer unnecessarily from tariffs and trade war.

Joe Biden's economy was strong by every measure including prices. Prices were high because jobs, wages, and stock market were up so people were buying stuff.

ProfessorGAC

(75,839 posts)
38. Which I Don't Understand
Wed Mar 19, 2025, 06:35 AM
Mar 2025

Recession is bad for business. So, is inflation.
So, even these rich folks should not want actions that create this risk.
Aside from the true Gilded Age (135 years ago) the very rich prosper more when the economy booms from the demand side.
So, the rich supporting this makes no sense.

IronLionZion

(50,815 posts)
39. The wealthy like to buy low, whether it's stocks, labor, or equipment/materials
Wed Mar 19, 2025, 08:44 AM
Mar 2025

Prices are high now. Recession would supposedly lower prices. It would depress wages when there are fewer jobs.

Then there are people who love to exploit pain for malicious agendas, like an idiotic mass deportation strategy and austerity (cutting benefits).

ProfessorGAC

(75,839 posts)
40. Everybody Wealthy Isn't An Investor
Wed Mar 19, 2025, 03:01 PM
Mar 2025

While what you day is true, there are related negatives to a market dropping.
If the market drops, they're starting at a normal deficit.
And some high wealth people are making a large fraction of their money off the companies they run.
Seeing a drop in demand is bad for their bottom line, both from corporate & personal perspectives.
And, if the crash is bad enough, there is limited upside.
For people who measure their self-worth by their net worth, it doesn't seem like a net positive.

IronLionZion

(50,815 posts)
41. I would think more corporations would push back against tariffs and trade war eventually
Wed Mar 19, 2025, 05:07 PM
Mar 2025

but haven't seen it yet

I agree with you but not everyone thinks this way.

Bengus81

(9,809 posts)
14. Hell Trump...lets go for a Depression! Rich people made a fortune off that disaster
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 02:02 PM
Mar 2025

and they'll BANK on a recession too. Joe Kennedy bought movie studios during the Great Depression.

Owens

(588 posts)
17. So he's breaking his promises
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 02:26 PM
Mar 2025

to lower costs and inflation. Wonder how the MAGAs feel about that? Oh, they'll just blame Biden and the Democratic leaders will say nothing, as usual

SWBTATTReg

(26,026 posts)
18. The f**king moron never worked a f**king day in his damn life, how would the f**k he would know that a recession
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 03:09 PM
Mar 2025

is good for the Country? He drove into the ground before, how long is it to hit him in the damn face before he realizes that it's him causing these economic burps. No one else ...

CTyankee

(67,790 posts)
19. "detox period"?? what the hell is that?
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 03:23 PM
Mar 2025

I studied Economics once a big survey type of course, an overview, in my Liberal Studies grad program. Nothing remotely similar to a "detox period" was in it.

THIS IS UTTER BULLSHIT!

raccoon

(32,206 posts)
35. Lara Trump should be kissing the ass of everyone who's getting screwed over by Trump.
Wed Mar 19, 2025, 05:17 AM
Mar 2025

usonian

(23,513 posts)
25. Coming up next: With a recession, Trump says that the U.S. is best suited by becoming a Russian state.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 05:24 PM
Mar 2025

Now, where's the wager line on that?

unblock

(55,906 posts)
28. In other words, "Other people may die while I consolidate power, but it's a sacrifice I'm willing to make"
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 05:42 PM
Mar 2025

Donnie is playing the tariff game to gain control over domestic industry. He lives tariffs because he can reward or punish almost any industry or in some cases, a specific company if he wants.

He can use that leverage to keep even ceos and billionaires in line. That's the real goal of the tariffs. You thought he cared about the American economy? Ha!

SunSeeker

(57,512 posts)
31. "short-term pain to get more long-term pain."
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 06:16 PM
Mar 2025

Love this quote from the article:

“The idea of short-term pain for long-term gain is not a crazy idea in and of itself,” said Greg Mankiw, a Harvard economist who served as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush. But Mr. Trump’s trade policies, he said, are “short-term pain to get more long-term pain.”

Initech

(107,409 posts)
33. It is 100% *NOT* worth the cost!!!
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 07:40 PM
Mar 2025

Holy shit, the US media has their heads so far up his ass that they don't know what's right from wrong anymore. It's insane that they're sane washing this because they're too chicken shit to stand up to him and do the right thing.

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