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erronis

(22,665 posts)
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 10:11 AM Mar 2025

Is Trump driving the US into a recession? - in charts -- The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/18/is-trump-driving-the-us-into-a-recession-in-charts

Warning lights are flashing on a dashboard of economic indicators as analysts grow alarmed about a ‘TrumpcessionWarning lights are flashing on a dashboard of economic indicators as analysts grow alarmed about a ‘Trumpcession



Prospects for the US economy have cooled significantly in a matter of months. After outperforming its international peers last year, warning lights are flashing on a dashboard of economic indicators as analysts warn that Donald Trump’s erratic approach is hitting the world’s largest economy.

Fears of a US recession this year are growing, in what is being called a “Trumpcession”, amid a sharp decline in business and consumer confidence as the president threatens punitive import tariffs on US allies and enemies alike.

Most economists reckon a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking economic output – can be avoided. But it is clear there are storm clouds gathering within the president’s first 100 days back in the White House.

. . .


Lots of charts at the link.
42 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Is Trump driving the US into a recession? - in charts -- The Guardian (Original Post) erronis Mar 2025 OP
+1. Guardian is great. Lots of good charts. . . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Mar 2025 #1
Research universities are the economic engines of our economy. yardwork Mar 2025 #2
Better Broke than Woke North Coast Lawyer Mar 2025 #34
It's worse than that. yardwork Mar 2025 #35
Yep, and I'm a professor of chemistry. GoYouPackersGo Mar 2025 #39
I would never have believed this was possible in the U.S. yardwork Mar 2025 #41
My sister in law (if that's what one's wife's brother's wife is) last Christmas: GoYouPackersGo Mar 2025 #42
We will be damn lucky if it's only a recession. MLWR Mar 2025 #3
Agree. And the money looted from the US will be stored outside the US. erronis Mar 2025 #5
Be suspicious of "vacations" to the Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic... IthinkThereforeIAM Mar 2025 #20
I've been 'betting' on depression for months, elleng Mar 2025 #13
Drive? ...I think we can walk from here. JohnnyRingo Mar 2025 #4
The obvious answer is FUCKING YES. sakabatou Mar 2025 #6
No, MAGA media is calling it a "necessary correction". Initech Mar 2025 #7
Companies and consumers don't like volatility IronLionZion Mar 2025 #8
Buffets been adding to his cash reserves. NowsTheTime Mar 2025 #9
Is the Pope Catholic? nt GoYouPackersGo Mar 2025 #10
Was the Pope Polish??? elleng Mar 2025 #12
NO DOUBT he is. elleng Mar 2025 #11
According to Paul Krugman, that is exactly what Trump is doing, along with a lot of other de-stabilizing stuff like Martin68 Mar 2025 #14
No. He's leading it into a F-ing depression! Sogo Mar 2025 #15
Agree! TY Cha Mar 2025 #27
Crash our economy, blame the democrats and Biden and then cancel our constitution and democracy kimbutgar Mar 2025 #16
He's already tried blaming Biden once recently, but I think that this excuse fell flat on the floor as soon as it left SWBTATTReg Mar 2025 #19
I can't write nor say his name without being angry and nauseous so I refer to him as the orange Hitler 2.0 kimbutgar Mar 2025 #21
Yes, I'm not going to give this POS a damn thing, restrain my purchases to the essentials, and otherwise, not give SWBTATTReg Mar 2025 #22
He's not just causing a mere recession, he's actively de-stabilizing this country. Initech Mar 2025 #29
He's driving the US into third world status. NNadir Mar 2025 #17
It's all mumbo jumbo until people stop spending Johnny2X2X Mar 2025 #18
Just wait until April 2nd - the day Trump says the tariffs are going to start. kerry-is-my-prez Mar 2025 #23
I expect that a lot of his "friends"/insiders will be buying long before he announces erronis Mar 2025 #24
He already HAS done tariff taxes. Canada, China, and Mexico products already tariffed now. US companies paying. . nt Bernardo de La Paz Mar 2025 #36
YES, Per the Puppeteer's Orders. Straight from Putin. Cha Mar 2025 #25
Duh. Someone here said I don't know which of Donnie and musk is Thelma and which is Louise, unblock Mar 2025 #26
yes Evolve Dammit Mar 2025 #28
Obviously, but it's worse than you think jmowreader Mar 2025 #30
Yes. The goal is to make all the US into "rentiers". His fat-cat "friends" can profit off the subscription model. erronis Mar 2025 #31
I don't see how a different President will help anymore. HappyLarge Mar 2025 #40
New relevant article from Digby erronis Mar 2025 #32
Call me crazy but it is 100% on purpose. Ordered by his owner and master Putin. OverBurn Mar 2025 #33
Yes. CaptainTruth Mar 2025 #37
Just like Victor Orban did and Putin did................ turbinetree Mar 2025 #38

yardwork

(68,976 posts)
2. Research universities are the economic engines of our economy.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 10:42 AM
Mar 2025

The research universities are being starved of the federal funds that fuel all the groundbreaking discoveries that drive our economy.

Industry doesn't do basic research and discovery. It's done at large research universities, most of them public state universities. The universities employ hundreds of thousands of people who run labs, manage data, manage grants, etc. They're small cities of discovery. It's why the university towns are economically vibrant, with lots of small businesses thriving.

Industry takes the discoveries and translates them into products and services. People all over the world buy these life-saving treatments, new technologies, and neat new things. It's where Musk's technologies for Tesla and SpaceX came from.

The universities are being starved. They've frozen hiring and costs, and that's just the beginning. Our economic engines are sputtering and shutting down.

The impact is going to be devastating.

North Coast Lawyer

(225 posts)
34. Better Broke than Woke
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 05:27 PM
Mar 2025

If the cost of those discoveries includes forward looking egalitarian university campuses (i.e. places world class researchers and teachers would want to be) then MAGA would rather starve.

yardwork

(68,976 posts)
35. It's worse than that.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 05:29 PM
Mar 2025

MAGA have been trained to believe that science is bad. Vaccines are bad. The FDA is bad.

Measles is in. Science is out.

yardwork

(68,976 posts)
41. I would never have believed this was possible in the U.S.
Wed Mar 19, 2025, 08:43 AM
Mar 2025

I am heartbroken over what our country has become.

GoYouPackersGo

(233 posts)
42. My sister in law (if that's what one's wife's brother's wife is) last Christmas:
Thu Mar 20, 2025, 11:31 PM
Mar 2025

"We don't believe in science, we believe in FAITH!"

Needless to say she's an ardent Trumper.

MLWR

(776 posts)
3. We will be damn lucky if it's only a recession.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 10:51 AM
Mar 2025

My best guess is that we are headed for a full blown depression. He is firing tens of thousands of people who have good jobs and contribute to the economy. Inflation is increasing and salaries are not. Businesses are beginning to feel the crunch of people not spending money. Farmers are losing due to trump's illegal slashing of USAID. If he slashes Social Security and Medicare, more people will not have money to spend and now we are talking 70+ million people. He wants to give all that money to people who don't need it and won't put it back in the economy. I don't see a simple recession resulting from this; I see a depression, and it will be a really bad one once businesses start to fail.

erronis

(22,665 posts)
5. Agree. And the money looted from the US will be stored outside the US.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 11:06 AM
Mar 2025

Some will be used to add more gilt to the Kremlin's spires. New billionaire-only communities - islands, well-guarded resorts, floating palaces, etc. The SF writers of yesteryear came close to calling this dystopia.

IthinkThereforeIAM

(3,280 posts)
20. Be suspicious of "vacations" to the Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic...
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 02:56 PM
Mar 2025

... that is the "secret" place folks with too much money go to open bank accounts. My ex-father in law, was a big airlines captain before the deregulation and he/they were taking trips to the Caymans often. A great guy, and that was the "thing to do" under Reagan.

elleng

(141,926 posts)
13. I've been 'betting' on depression for months,
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 12:28 PM
Mar 2025

and including INTERNATIONAL, we're so 'big and powerful.'

JohnnyRingo

(20,511 posts)
4. Drive? ...I think we can walk from here.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 10:58 AM
Mar 2025

All the warning signs are there and the alarm bell just fell off the wall.

Initech

(107,439 posts)
7. No, MAGA media is calling it a "necessary correction".
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 11:13 AM
Mar 2025

Fuck off, we all know what it is.

IronLionZion

(50,822 posts)
8. Companies and consumers don't like volatility
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 11:28 AM
Mar 2025

so they are both pulling back on spending and choosing to save more. So he's directly taking money out of the economy, shrinking it.

Tariffs raise prices. We are not going to like how he lowers prices.

Martin68

(27,075 posts)
14. According to Paul Krugman, that is exactly what Trump is doing, along with a lot of other de-stabilizing stuff like
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 12:29 PM
Mar 2025

firing federal staff that are essential to security and just making things work.

kimbutgar

(26,811 posts)
16. Crash our economy, blame the democrats and Biden and then cancel our constitution and democracy
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 01:45 PM
Mar 2025

Because ONLY he can fix!

SWBTATTReg

(26,044 posts)
19. He's already tried blaming Biden once recently, but I think that this excuse fell flat on the floor as soon as it left
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 02:27 PM
Mar 2025

his fat mouth. Didn't gain traction at all (Biden being the perp of economic woes).

It's all tRUMP, every f**king bit of it.

We should start calling it the tRUMP depression, this would burn a hole in his fat head eat him alive, and ... it's also true.

He managed to turn around an economy that was humming along, and yeah, sure there were some issues before, but now? All of the burners are on full scale, and signs of an economy downturn are appearing everywhere.

I know that people have also restrained their purchases too, sort of a tRUMP economic boycott too. Me too.

tRUMP has also cut back on federal spending that was already vouched for by approved by Congress, and personally, I think it's so he can give him and his buddies another ignorant tax cut. They'll hide the recipients of these tax cuts too like they did the first time around.

And speaking of tRUMP, whoever gave him the supposed authority to unilaterally trash our Economy? I don't recall Congress saying so (and they do it via the legislative process, like normally it should be). Way too much power that he's should not have (probably has it illegally). That's why I'm calling this the 'tRUMP depression'.

kimbutgar

(26,811 posts)
21. I can't write nor say his name without being angry and nauseous so I refer to him as the orange Hitler 2.0
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 03:10 PM
Mar 2025

But I agree 100% he owns this crashing of our economy.

I have noticed going into stores that people are stocking up and only buying necessary stuff. I love Marshalls and Ross and even those stores have fewer people in them nowadays!

SWBTATTReg

(26,044 posts)
22. Yes, I'm not going to give this POS a damn thing, restrain my purchases to the essentials, and otherwise, not give
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 03:14 PM
Mar 2025

an inch to this scumbag.

Initech

(107,439 posts)
29. He's not just causing a mere recession, he's actively de-stabilizing this country.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 03:52 PM
Mar 2025

And he's dragging most of the west down with him.

Johnny2X2X

(23,693 posts)
18. It's all mumbo jumbo until people stop spending
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 02:23 PM
Mar 2025

All these charts, all these numbers, don't mean muich save for the consumer spending they cited. The economy and its health is just a reflection of regular people having money and spending it. People are scared right now, people are starting to refrain from spending. January was a pull back on spending, February was a smaller increase than expected, this is the leading indicator. Q1 will be a shrink of GDP, Q2 is trending that way too. That's a Recession.

kerry-is-my-prez

(10,207 posts)
23. Just wait until April 2nd - the day Trump says the tariffs are going to start.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 03:15 PM
Mar 2025

Trump has tanked the market several times by just saying the word “tariff.” The market went back up every time he postponed them. If he actually does the tariffs, all hell will break out…..

erronis

(22,665 posts)
24. I expect that a lot of his "friends"/insiders will be buying long before he announces
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 03:28 PM
Mar 2025

that he's decided he won't impose the tariffs. They'll reap the benefits as the stock market soars.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long.asp

And then expect that this pattern will repeat until they've wrung all the wealth out of the non-insiders.

Who's going to prosecute them? The regulatory agencies have been knee-capped.

Bernardo de La Paz

(60,320 posts)
36. He already HAS done tariff taxes. Canada, China, and Mexico products already tariffed now. US companies paying. . nt
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 06:34 PM
Mar 2025

Cha

(316,803 posts)
25. YES, Per the Puppeteer's Orders. Straight from Putin.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 03:38 PM
Mar 2025

And, I'm not paying as much attention as many are.

ETA~ I agree with the statement upthread... A "Depression"

unblock

(55,928 posts)
26. Duh. Someone here said I don't know which of Donnie and musk is Thelma and which is Louise,
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 03:42 PM
Mar 2025

But America is the car....

jmowreader

(52,903 posts)
30. Obviously, but it's worse than you think
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 04:02 PM
Mar 2025

Trump wants just enough of a recession that people's houses will be foreclosed on in huge numbers. The whole idea is to let his rich backers buy them up at a significant discount to turn them into rentals.

What he may not understand, even though he has a business degree, is that once a recession starts you don't get to decide how bad it'll be...and with as many other nations as he's already pissed off, it'll be bad. REALLY bad. Without a different president - it can be anyone not connected to Trump, but it'll have to be a different president - who the world isn't mad at, there won't be a way to reverse the recession.

erronis

(22,665 posts)
31. Yes. The goal is to make all the US into "rentiers". His fat-cat "friends" can profit off the subscription model.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 04:15 PM
Mar 2025

Last edited Tue Mar 18, 2025, 04:59 PM - Edit history (1)

But I don't think taking a chain-saw to the economy or society will end up well for them, or for us.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rentier_capitalism

HappyLarge

(82 posts)
40. I don't see how a different President will help anymore.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 10:47 PM
Mar 2025

No other country will ever be able to trust us again. We just proved that we will choose the absolute worst possible leader, not once but twice. Our allies are reorganizing and our trading partners are looking elsewhere. They are not coming back.

erronis

(22,665 posts)
32. New relevant article from Digby
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 04:17 PM
Mar 2025
https://digbysblog.net/2025/03/18/a-trump-recession-coming/

It sure looks like it’s possible

Business is pulling back on capital expenditures because Donald Trump has created the most unstable economy (unstable world!) that anyone can remember with his capricious, decision making and Elon Musk’s chainsaw. Nobody can predict anything but chaos going forward and business is betting that taking any risk right now isn’t worth it. I don’t blame them.

Economist Mark Zandi told NY Magazine’s Benjamin Hart that he has raised his expectation of a recession this year from 5% to 35% based upon Trump’s actions on tariffs, DOGE and all the chaos:

Despite all of this uncertainty, the recent data on inflation and unemployment is pretty solid. I was reading Justin Wolfers’s arguments on why recession fears may be overblown. He wrote that “the hard numbers tell us that the economy is in very good shape.” Do you agree? And do you expect that to last in the next couple of months? Because obviously we’re just beginning to understand the effects of all these haphazard policies.
The economy came into the year performing exceptionally and growing strongly. GDP last year was almost 3 percent, and growth was almost 3 percent. That’s a really good year. We created 2 million jobs. That’s a lot of jobs. Unemployment was 4 percent across every demographic. That’s very low. And it’s been there now for three years, which is just extraordinary. We have our problems, but the top-line performance of the economy arguably couldn’t be better coming into the year, so it would take a lot to diminish and derail it. But that’s what’s happening.

I can’t think of another example like this of somebody coming in and just single-handedly creating such a bad economic situation.

Yeah, recession by design. It will take a lot to push the economy off the rails, but if the president follows through on all the tariffs he’s discussed and articulated, most importantly the reciprocal tariffs, then holds them there — not on again, off again, but says, “Okay, here are the tariffs and we’re sticking to them” — other countries will retaliate. They already are. Once they realize that these tariffs are going to be around for a while, they’re going to respond in kind. Forget about all the other economic policies and everything else going on, that would be enough to push the economy into recession later this year.

I will be shocked if he pulls back the tariffs, although anything is possible. He believes in them like a religion and thinks they will magically force all manufacturing to immediately move to America and basically end trade altogether. It’s stupid and simplistic but that’s what he thinks. With the way his dementia is progressing into even more grandiose delusions, I don’t think reality is going to have much influence on him.

. . .

OverBurn

(1,287 posts)
33. Call me crazy but it is 100% on purpose. Ordered by his owner and master Putin.
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 04:22 PM
Mar 2025

He doesn't care if he ruins the country as long as he remains rich and powerful. He's the United States biggest traitor ever.

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