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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIs Trump driving the US into a recession? - in charts -- The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/18/is-trump-driving-the-us-into-a-recession-in-chartsWarning lights are flashing on a dashboard of economic indicators as analysts grow alarmed about a TrumpcessionWarning lights are flashing on a dashboard of economic indicators as analysts grow alarmed about a Trumpcession

Fears of a US recession this year are growing, in what is being called a Trumpcession, amid a sharp decline in business and consumer confidence as the president threatens punitive import tariffs on US allies and enemies alike.
Most economists reckon a recession defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking economic output can be avoided. But it is clear there are storm clouds gathering within the presidents first 100 days back in the White House.
. . .
Lots of charts at the link.
Bernardo de La Paz
(60,320 posts)yardwork
(68,976 posts)The research universities are being starved of the federal funds that fuel all the groundbreaking discoveries that drive our economy.
Industry doesn't do basic research and discovery. It's done at large research universities, most of them public state universities. The universities employ hundreds of thousands of people who run labs, manage data, manage grants, etc. They're small cities of discovery. It's why the university towns are economically vibrant, with lots of small businesses thriving.
Industry takes the discoveries and translates them into products and services. People all over the world buy these life-saving treatments, new technologies, and neat new things. It's where Musk's technologies for Tesla and SpaceX came from.
The universities are being starved. They've frozen hiring and costs, and that's just the beginning. Our economic engines are sputtering and shutting down.
The impact is going to be devastating.
North Coast Lawyer
(225 posts)If the cost of those discoveries includes forward looking egalitarian university campuses (i.e. places world class researchers and teachers would want to be) then MAGA would rather starve.
yardwork
(68,976 posts)MAGA have been trained to believe that science is bad. Vaccines are bad. The FDA is bad.
Measles is in. Science is out.
GoYouPackersGo
(233 posts)Since chemistry is a science, I am the devil.
yardwork
(68,976 posts)I am heartbroken over what our country has become.
GoYouPackersGo
(233 posts)"We don't believe in science, we believe in FAITH!"
Needless to say she's an ardent Trumper.
MLWR
(776 posts)My best guess is that we are headed for a full blown depression. He is firing tens of thousands of people who have good jobs and contribute to the economy. Inflation is increasing and salaries are not. Businesses are beginning to feel the crunch of people not spending money. Farmers are losing due to trump's illegal slashing of USAID. If he slashes Social Security and Medicare, more people will not have money to spend and now we are talking 70+ million people. He wants to give all that money to people who don't need it and won't put it back in the economy. I don't see a simple recession resulting from this; I see a depression, and it will be a really bad one once businesses start to fail.
erronis
(22,665 posts)Some will be used to add more gilt to the Kremlin's spires. New billionaire-only communities - islands, well-guarded resorts, floating palaces, etc. The SF writers of yesteryear came close to calling this dystopia.
IthinkThereforeIAM
(3,280 posts)... that is the "secret" place folks with too much money go to open bank accounts. My ex-father in law, was a big airlines captain before the deregulation and he/they were taking trips to the Caymans often. A great guy, and that was the "thing to do" under Reagan.
elleng
(141,926 posts)and including INTERNATIONAL, we're so 'big and powerful.'
JohnnyRingo
(20,511 posts)All the warning signs are there and the alarm bell just fell off the wall.
sakabatou
(45,774 posts)Initech
(107,439 posts)Fuck off, we all know what it is.
IronLionZion
(50,822 posts)so they are both pulling back on spending and choosing to save more. So he's directly taking money out of the economy, shrinking it.
Tariffs raise prices. We are not going to like how he lowers prices.
NowsTheTime
(1,251 posts)GoYouPackersGo
(233 posts)elleng
(141,926 posts)(It's a family thing!)
elleng
(141,926 posts)Martin68
(27,075 posts)firing federal staff that are essential to security and just making things work.
Sogo
(6,985 posts)nt
kimbutgar
(26,811 posts)Because ONLY he can fix!
SWBTATTReg
(26,044 posts)his fat mouth. Didn't gain traction at all (Biden being the perp of economic woes).
It's all tRUMP, every f**king bit of it.
We should start calling it the tRUMP depression, this would burn a hole in his fat head eat him alive, and ... it's also true.
He managed to turn around an economy that was humming along, and yeah, sure there were some issues before, but now? All of the burners are on full scale, and signs of an economy downturn are appearing everywhere.
I know that people have also restrained their purchases too, sort of a tRUMP economic boycott too. Me too.
tRUMP has also cut back on federal spending that was already vouched for by approved by Congress, and personally, I think it's so he can give him and his buddies another ignorant tax cut. They'll hide the recipients of these tax cuts too like they did the first time around.
And speaking of tRUMP, whoever gave him the supposed authority to unilaterally trash our Economy? I don't recall Congress saying so (and they do it via the legislative process, like normally it should be). Way too much power that he's should not have (probably has it illegally). That's why I'm calling this the 'tRUMP depression'.
kimbutgar
(26,811 posts)But I agree 100% he owns this crashing of our economy.
I have noticed going into stores that people are stocking up and only buying necessary stuff. I love Marshalls and Ross and even those stores have fewer people in them nowadays!
SWBTATTReg
(26,044 posts)an inch to this scumbag.
Initech
(107,439 posts)And he's dragging most of the west down with him.
NNadir
(37,304 posts)Johnny2X2X
(23,693 posts)All these charts, all these numbers, don't mean muich save for the consumer spending they cited. The economy and its health is just a reflection of regular people having money and spending it. People are scared right now, people are starting to refrain from spending. January was a pull back on spending, February was a smaller increase than expected, this is the leading indicator. Q1 will be a shrink of GDP, Q2 is trending that way too. That's a Recession.
kerry-is-my-prez
(10,207 posts)Trump has tanked the market several times by just saying the word tariff. The market went back up every time he postponed them. If he actually does the tariffs, all hell will break out ..
erronis
(22,665 posts)that he's decided he won't impose the tariffs. They'll reap the benefits as the stock market soars.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long.asp
And then expect that this pattern will repeat until they've wrung all the wealth out of the non-insiders.
Who's going to prosecute them? The regulatory agencies have been knee-capped.
Bernardo de La Paz
(60,320 posts)Cha
(316,803 posts)And, I'm not paying as much attention as many are.
ETA~ I agree with the statement upthread... A "Depression"
unblock
(55,928 posts)But America is the car....
Evolve Dammit
(21,499 posts)jmowreader
(52,903 posts)Trump wants just enough of a recession that people's houses will be foreclosed on in huge numbers. The whole idea is to let his rich backers buy them up at a significant discount to turn them into rentals.
What he may not understand, even though he has a business degree, is that once a recession starts you don't get to decide how bad it'll be...and with as many other nations as he's already pissed off, it'll be bad. REALLY bad. Without a different president - it can be anyone not connected to Trump, but it'll have to be a different president - who the world isn't mad at, there won't be a way to reverse the recession.
erronis
(22,665 posts)Last edited Tue Mar 18, 2025, 04:59 PM - Edit history (1)
But I don't think taking a chain-saw to the economy or society will end up well for them, or for us.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rentier_capitalism
HappyLarge
(82 posts)No other country will ever be able to trust us again. We just proved that we will choose the absolute worst possible leader, not once but twice. Our allies are reorganizing and our trading partners are looking elsewhere. They are not coming back.
erronis
(22,665 posts)It sure looks like its possible
Economist Mark Zandi told NY Magazines Benjamin Hart that he has raised his expectation of a recession this year from 5% to 35% based upon Trumps actions on tariffs, DOGE and all the chaos:
Despite all of this uncertainty, the recent data on inflation and unemployment is pretty solid. I was reading Justin Wolferss arguments on why recession fears may be overblown. He wrote that the hard numbers tell us that the economy is in very good shape. Do you agree? And do you expect that to last in the next couple of months? Because obviously were just beginning to understand the effects of all these haphazard policies.
The economy came into the year performing exceptionally and growing strongly. GDP last year was almost 3 percent, and growth was almost 3 percent. Thats a really good year. We created 2 million jobs. Thats a lot of jobs. Unemployment was 4 percent across every demographic. Thats very low. And its been there now for three years, which is just extraordinary. We have our problems, but the top-line performance of the economy arguably couldnt be better coming into the year, so it would take a lot to diminish and derail it. But thats whats happening.
I cant think of another example like this of somebody coming in and just single-handedly creating such a bad economic situation.
Yeah, recession by design. It will take a lot to push the economy off the rails, but if the president follows through on all the tariffs hes discussed and articulated, most importantly the reciprocal tariffs, then holds them there not on again, off again, but says, Okay, here are the tariffs and were sticking to them other countries will retaliate. They already are. Once they realize that these tariffs are going to be around for a while, theyre going to respond in kind. Forget about all the other economic policies and everything else going on, that would be enough to push the economy into recession later this year.
I will be shocked if he pulls back the tariffs, although anything is possible. He believes in them like a religion and thinks they will magically force all manufacturing to immediately move to America and basically end trade altogether. Its stupid and simplistic but thats what he thinks. With the way his dementia is progressing into even more grandiose delusions, I dont think reality is going to have much influence on him.
. . .
OverBurn
(1,287 posts)He doesn't care if he ruins the country as long as he remains rich and powerful. He's the United States biggest traitor ever.
CaptainTruth
(8,048 posts)turbinetree
(26,989 posts)same play book............