General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsFox Poll Numbers Don't Make Sense
The Fox News poll numbers are laid out as Favorable for Trump, Republicans 92% to 8% and the exact reverse among Democrats at 8% to 92%. Independents are 38% Favorable to 61% unfavorable, a 23% underwater difference. Republicans in this country do not substantially outnumber Democrats. They are generally considered about even, but no more than a point or two different. In fact, Independents outnumber both parties. This poll has Trump just 2 points under water at 49% to 51%. My math has it at least minus 7% (23% on Indies divided by the 3 groups, rounding down for a conservative estimate).
Link:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-polls-reveal-what-americans-think-about-trump-months-into-his-second-term
hlthe2b
(112,803 posts)I think the less extreme R's likely will not admit it and probably ID as independent on polls, whether still registered R or not. At least that is my theory (hope?)...
Pototan
(2,992 posts)The math is still the same. 23% divided by 3 is still at least 7%.
hlthe2b
(112,803 posts)10 years teaching survey design to epidemiologists. Garbage in, garbage out. You assume they checked voter registration. That is NOT done in routine surveys, but relies on self-identification.
Pototan
(2,992 posts)However, that's not representative of the American public, where Democrats, Republicans and Independents are about equally divided in general.
Your explanation is the only one that explains the math, but that makes the results wrong on the headline numbers.
The point of my OP is that, using Fox's results and applying the political representations as registered voters, you get at least a minus 7% Trump approval number
Johonny
(25,435 posts)Sans immigration because the GOP love torture, he is doing terrible on every issue. A lot of Republicans claim to love Trump, but hate just about everything he is doing. The situation is ripe for a GOPer to align themselves against Trump, but so far there are no takers. Hence, you see Newsome and some Democrats wading into that area. Which is not exactly where Democratic voters want their candidates to be. But almost certainly if the aura of Trump went away, a huge GOP rift feels likely. GOP voters dislike most of Trump's policies. They just like Trump. Not even real Trump, but mythical Trump created by RW propaganda.
Pototan
(2,992 posts)but my OP is about the math in this poll.
Blue Owl
(58,163 posts)Kid Berwyn
(22,931 posts)Weird!!
JohnnyRingo
(20,505 posts)Of course all the die hard republicans aren't going to admit they were duped, but the ones who claim to be unaffiliated can say they knew all along.
Republicans have been playing that wolf in sheep's clothing game for decades. Some because they don't want to admit they're republicans, and others because they're paranoid about giving out too much personal info. So 92% of republicans polled are pleased with their vote.
They say Libertarians are republicans who still want to get laid.
underpants
(194,870 posts)I cant find anything about the size of the poll group or MOE.
Baitball Blogger
(51,715 posts)Their dedicated members are?
chouchou
(2,799 posts)stoned
(334 posts)controlled opposition, like the rest of the corporate press. None of it should be taken seriously. Viewship sells ads and ads make money, and lies and deceit and half-truths and over-the-top headlines make for great viewership.
Corporate press viewers are being played.
unblock
(55,910 posts)Such as presenting numbers characterized as breaking down a single population into unique response, yet the numbers add up to maybe 120%
Like approval numbers for a Republican, and they'll just add 20% to the approval side and forget to subtract that 20% from the disapproval side.
They're blatant propagandists.
Emile
(40,596 posts)everyonematters
(4,019 posts)Right now, identification of Democrats might be significantly lower because our approval rating is down.
Justice Brandeis
(405 posts)That should translate into an approval rating of about 6-7% underwater.
LetMyPeopleVote
(174,948 posts)carpetbagger
(5,407 posts)Fox does decent polls in general, notwithstanding the cable news channel being a propogantertainment enterprise.
I'd be interested in the words they used to ask about party affiliation. Actual numbers by registration are skewed as the states that don't register by party (like Texas) tilt as a whole to the GOP. In recent (since 2021) polling, the numbers have been about even D and R, independents can be 40 percent or as low as 10 percent depending on if "Republican" (or D) means that or that and "Republican leaning". It looks like they included "leaners" to get to 10 percent I, in which case the numbers work out.
These numbers look similar to other polling from mainstream outlets that did decently in 2024 (unadjusted for voter suppression).
My opinion is that how we hit back should assume that there's no budge from the 2024 general, there's been no FAFO that's made a difference yet.