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Pototan

(2,992 posts)
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 10:30 AM Mar 2025

Fox Poll Numbers Don't Make Sense

The Fox News poll numbers are laid out as Favorable for Trump, Republicans 92% to 8% and the exact reverse among Democrats at 8% to 92%. Independents are 38% Favorable to 61% unfavorable, a 23% underwater difference. Republicans in this country do not substantially outnumber Democrats. They are generally considered about even, but no more than a point or two different. In fact, Independents outnumber both parties. This poll has Trump just 2 points under water at 49% to 51%. My math has it at least minus 7% (23% on Indies divided by the 3 groups, rounding down for a conservative estimate).

Link:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-polls-reveal-what-americans-think-about-trump-months-into-his-second-term

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hlthe2b

(112,803 posts)
1. I have to say that those who answer polls self-identifying as R's today are undoubtedly committed MAGATs
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 10:38 AM
Mar 2025

I think the less extreme R's likely will not admit it and probably ID as independent on polls, whether still registered R or not. At least that is my theory (hope?)...

Pototan

(2,992 posts)
3. That makes no difference
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 10:40 AM
Mar 2025

The math is still the same. 23% divided by 3 is still at least 7%.

hlthe2b

(112,803 posts)
9. Of course it does. Bias in the R's surveyed (non-representative sampling)most definitely impacts the results.
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 10:48 AM
Mar 2025

10 years teaching survey design to epidemiologists. Garbage in, garbage out. You assume they checked voter registration. That is NOT done in routine surveys, but relies on self-identification.

Pototan

(2,992 posts)
12. That's the only explanation
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 11:12 AM
Mar 2025

However, that's not representative of the American public, where Democrats, Republicans and Independents are about equally divided in general.

Your explanation is the only one that explains the math, but that makes the results wrong on the headline numbers.

The point of my OP is that, using Fox's results and applying the political representations as registered voters, you get at least a minus 7% Trump approval number

Johonny

(25,435 posts)
2. Trump's issue numbers are worse
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 10:38 AM
Mar 2025

Sans immigration because the GOP love torture, he is doing terrible on every issue. A lot of Republicans claim to love Trump, but hate just about everything he is doing. The situation is ripe for a GOPer to align themselves against Trump, but so far there are no takers. Hence, you see Newsome and some Democrats wading into that area. Which is not exactly where Democratic voters want their candidates to be. But almost certainly if the aura of Trump went away, a huge GOP rift feels likely. GOP voters dislike most of Trump's policies. They just like Trump. Not even real Trump, but mythical Trump created by RW propaganda.

JohnnyRingo

(20,505 posts)
7. A lot of republicans claim to be indys.
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 10:47 AM
Mar 2025

Of course all the die hard republicans aren't going to admit they were duped, but the ones who claim to be unaffiliated can say they knew all along.
Republicans have been playing that wolf in sheep's clothing game for decades. Some because they don't want to admit they're republicans, and others because they're paranoid about giving out too much personal info. So 92% of republicans polled are pleased with their vote.

They say Libertarians are republicans who still want to get laid.

underpants

(194,870 posts)
8. It's Fox News. Your analysis looks right.
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 10:47 AM
Mar 2025

I can’t find anything about the size of the poll group or MOE.

 

stoned

(334 posts)
13. Fox "News" is nothing more than
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 11:15 AM
Mar 2025

controlled opposition, like the rest of the corporate press. None of it should be taken seriously. Viewship sells ads and ads make money, and lies and deceit and half-truths and over-the-top headlines make for great viewership.

Corporate press viewers are being played.

unblock

(55,910 posts)
14. Foxnews has a long history of blatant lying with statistics.
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 11:16 AM
Mar 2025

Such as presenting numbers characterized as breaking down a single population into unique response, yet the numbers add up to maybe 120%

Like approval numbers for a Republican, and they'll just add 20% to the approval side and forget to subtract that 20% from the disapproval side.

They're blatant propagandists.

everyonematters

(4,019 posts)
16. Are they going by how voters identify or how they are registered?
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 11:31 AM
Mar 2025

Right now, identification of Democrats might be significantly lower because our approval rating is down.

 

Justice Brandeis

(405 posts)
17. Monkeying with the numbers
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 12:07 PM
Mar 2025

That should translate into an approval rating of about 6-7% underwater.

carpetbagger

(5,407 posts)
18. They look ok to me (the numbers, not the actual fact that we've gone there as a nation).
Sat Mar 22, 2025, 08:49 PM
Mar 2025

Fox does decent polls in general, notwithstanding the cable news channel being a propogantertainment enterprise.

I'd be interested in the words they used to ask about party affiliation. Actual numbers by registration are skewed as the states that don't register by party (like Texas) tilt as a whole to the GOP. In recent (since 2021) polling, the numbers have been about even D and R, independents can be 40 percent or as low as 10 percent depending on if "Republican" (or D) means that or that and "Republican leaning". It looks like they included "leaners" to get to 10 percent I, in which case the numbers work out.

These numbers look similar to other polling from mainstream outlets that did decently in 2024 (unadjusted for voter suppression).

My opinion is that how we hit back should assume that there's no budge from the 2024 general, there's been no FAFO that's made a difference yet.

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