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applegrove

(129,958 posts)
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 10:54 AM Apr 2025

Wisconsin Republicans Have a Turnout Problem

Wisconsin Republicans Have a Turnout Problem

April 1, 2025 at 6:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 71 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2025/04/01/wisconsin-republicans-have-a-turnout-problem/

"SNIP..........

Split Ticket: “Although we will not be releasing a model for this race, the early vote data we have extensively analyzed and modeled suggests Democratic-aligned liberal judge Susan Crawford is a clear favorite to win this election.”

“While the GOP-aligned conservative Brad Schimel certainly could pull off an upset (and it would be foolish to rule him out this early), the early vote suggests that this would be a monumental feat for him, and he is staring down the barrel of an immense deficit that he is unlikely to overturn on election day.”

“The early vote data shows that even relative to 2024, Democrats are significantly more likely to show up than Republicans are — and in a state that Donald Trump won by less than a percentage point in 2024, this makes the GOP’s job much harder.”

............SNIP"

46 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Wisconsin Republicans Have a Turnout Problem (Original Post) applegrove Apr 2025 OP
Hey Musk, the prophecy said, Money can't buy you love!" GreenWave Apr 2025 #1
..it profiteth a man naught if he shall.. thomski64 Apr 2025 #3
Sheer profundity! GreenWave Apr 2025 #7
Right stick that million up his ass Tribetime Apr 2025 #22
I hate the timing of this. No one in WI should take this as an excuse not to vote karynnj Apr 2025 #2
Too often it's too many Democrats who get complacent & overconfident about elections. elocs Apr 2025 #12
If we recover our democracy, maybe America will be better MadameButterfly Apr 2025 #38
Yes bdamomma Apr 2025 #43
The turnout problem can be adjusted gab13by13 Apr 2025 #4
"Adjusted".. wimk, wink, nudge, nudge. Permanut Apr 2025 #26
Thats my worry MadameButterfly Apr 2025 #39
Conspiracy theories are mostly self-soothing mechanisms Maru Kitteh Apr 2025 #44
I hope that these projections are correct LetMyPeopleVote Apr 2025 #5
Not if starlink is connected to systems, jus sayin uponit7771 Apr 2025 #6
But they weren't and aren't/nt Abnredleg Apr 2025 #8
According to this they were the reason vote counting went so quickly in 2024 tintinvotes Apr 2025 #30
It was used for registration Abnredleg Apr 2025 #33
Cab you post a link from a credible source? tintinvotes Apr 2025 #36
Here you go Abnredleg Apr 2025 #37
I still don't like Starlink or Elon anywhere near our voting system MadameButterfly Apr 2025 #40
I'm not disagreeing with you/nt Abnredleg Apr 2025 #42
Exactly! Here comes the russian algorithm! BComplex Apr 2025 #23
Republicans have had a turnout problem in a lot of offcycle elections. Self Esteem Apr 2025 #9
There is much to think about in this post. I have noticed this trend but not Maru Kitteh Apr 2025 #16
Yes, it will mean much. Because we won't have another "major" election for almost four years from now. W_HAMILTON Apr 2025 #17
Mostly these special elections are great for morale... WarGamer Apr 2025 #19
Not disagreeing but... Hieronymus Phact Apr 2025 #24
Democrats historically were the party of low-propensity voters. Self Esteem Apr 2025 #35
Romney got caught on tape saying this: MadameButterfly Apr 2025 #41
Yes and it's made winning big turnout nationwide elections tough for Democrats. Self Esteem Apr 2025 #45
i hope we don't have to wait that long MadameButterfly Apr 2025 #46
Oy vey Prairie Gates Apr 2025 #10
They may have underestimated how much people hate Eloon. milestogo Apr 2025 #11
fingers crossed AltairIV Apr 2025 #13
Don't jinx this. Emile Apr 2025 #14
Encouraging! peggysue2 Apr 2025 #15
Can't we just wait a few hours? WarGamer Apr 2025 #18
It's kismet MaineNative Apr 2025 #20
Oh no! Think of the poor little Musks! dchill Apr 2025 #21
Be very cautiously optimistic. VERY cautiously DFW Apr 2025 #25
Many power outages due to an ice storm. WiVoter Apr 2025 #27
From this page to Gods ear JMCKUSICK Apr 2025 #28
Musk will use his Starlink to tamper with the ballots Owens Apr 2025 #29
My suspicion as well. n/t returnee Apr 2025 #34
Good!! Demovictory9 Apr 2025 #31
I am wary of reports about low GQP turnout etc. moniss Apr 2025 #32

thomski64

(835 posts)
3. ..it profiteth a man naught if he shall..
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 11:05 AM
Apr 2025

..gain the whole World, if he shall lose his immortal soul...

karynnj

(60,765 posts)
2. I hate the timing of this. No one in WI should take this as an excuse not to vote
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 11:05 AM
Apr 2025

I think both sides have made this an existential election. It actually does change who has the majority of the WI Supreme Court .. and I would bet that most people know how that power was used when the Republicans had it recently.

I sincerely hope that Musk underestimated how disliked he is and that he is more of a negative than his money for ads, GOTV etc is. Not to mention, I hope bringing people in from places like Texas for GOTV triggers some " not from here".

 

elocs

(24,486 posts)
12. Too often it's too many Democrats who get complacent & overconfident about elections.
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 11:38 AM
Apr 2025

In my over 50 years of voting I've turned out to vote in nearly every election I could and always for the Democratic or Liberal candidate even when I was sure they would win.
We got to be where we are now because too many of us on the Left had not been vigilant in protecting our democracy because we looked upon the maga crowd and Trump as a joke with their constant whining about stolen election but they've distracted us with that complaint while these past 4 years they have plotted and planned how to steal our democracy.
And here we are. Sadly, even if we recover our democracy, America will never be the same again.

MadameButterfly

(3,725 posts)
38. If we recover our democracy, maybe America will be better
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 08:10 PM
Apr 2025

We'll have learned a lot. Voters of all stripes will have learned a lot. The pendulum may swing back.

Look what Germany became after WWII.

Maybe people won't be fooled so easily and compassion will rule.

bdamomma

(69,139 posts)
43. Yes
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 09:01 PM
Apr 2025

I hope that pendulum will swing back so hard it will hit that minority cult off the charts.

Elon/ and that SF felon must get their "just deserts".

Maru Kitteh

(31,192 posts)
44. Conspiracy theories are mostly self-soothing mechanisms
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 09:34 PM
Apr 2025

Which would be fine, but they can be very counterproductive and even depress turnout. Why should I vote if everyone is saying the vote tabulation is rigged? Why should a party engage in any self-examination after losing an election if they never admit a loss?


Good thing the conspiracy theorists were wrong tonight, too.

Abnredleg

(1,242 posts)
33. It was used for registration
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 02:06 PM
Apr 2025

The clerk has stated that the voting machines weren't connected to the Internet, which is against the law in California.

tintinvotes

(112 posts)
36. Cab you post a link from a credible source?
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 07:15 PM
Apr 2025

Because this article says "Our laptops and our connectivity, that wkd really well. In 2020 a lot of problems we experienced were due to slow connectivity at our polling places. We purchased Starlink for our sites, so as far as connectivity that wkd awesome", says Michelle Baldwin. She added early technical difficulties were quickly fixed and didn't impact vote tabulation. Call me crazy but Elon's Starlink should have no business being involved in our polling stations.

MadameButterfly

(3,725 posts)
40. I still don't like Starlink or Elon anywhere near our voting system
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 08:38 PM
Apr 2025

in any capacity. Would you allow a highly partisan crook to manage voter rolls just because the vote tabulation isn't connected to the internet? No, you would choose a person who hasn't just cancelled a dozen investigations into themselves, and who isn't brazenly partisan.

Would you say its ok that a fox is hanging around the chicken coop because he isn't IN the chicken coop? No you'd get it as far away as possible.

He has made himself ineligible for anything to do with elections.

 

Self Esteem

(2,248 posts)
9. Republicans have had a turnout problem in a lot of offcycle elections.
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 11:13 AM
Apr 2025

It's why it was utterly stupid to look at all the special elections Republicans were losing prior to the November election and using that proof of some shifting tide that would wipe out Trump and Republicans in November.

So many people got caught up in those special election results and they really didn't mean much. And tonight's election won't, either.

Democrats have done exceptionally well in low-turnout races and Republicans seem to be doing much better when turnout is higher. It's why I dismissed everyone last year who said high turnout was good for Democrats. It's not. Democrats' strength is with high-propensity voters and their weakness is with low-propensity voters, as we saw in 2024. Those voters typically stay home on these special elections and come out for the major ones.

The lower the turnout the more likely the Democrats are to win.

Maru Kitteh

(31,192 posts)
16. There is much to think about in this post. I have noticed this trend but not
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 12:23 PM
Apr 2025

seen it framed from this perspective. There are so many variables at play to consider and we are running out of time.


W_HAMILTON

(10,017 posts)
17. Yes, it will mean much. Because we won't have another "major" election for almost four years from now.
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 12:34 PM
Apr 2025

And by major, I mean a presidential election. Sure, we have midterms coming up, but Republicans have been losing/underperforming there as well, so either (1) it's not considered a "major" election for low-propensity voters -- in which case these special elections do mean much because their results can be extrapolated to other similar elections -- or (2) your theory about Democrats needs to be revisited.

WarGamer

(18,218 posts)
19. Mostly these special elections are great for morale...
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 12:50 PM
Apr 2025

Might not mean much in the real world.

Remember all the special elections we won in 24... and some projected those wins to mean a General Election victory?

Hieronymus Phact

(717 posts)
24. Not disagreeing but...
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 01:39 PM
Apr 2025

Historically Democrats have benefited from high turnouts because there were more of them, that's why republicans focus on suppressing the vote. If high turnout really was a benefit to them they would encourage it. What's been happening lately is i think disinformation and propaganda are swaying a lot of formerly democratic leaning types.

 

Self Esteem

(2,248 posts)
35. Democrats historically were the party of low-propensity voters.
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 06:46 PM
Apr 2025

That's a big reason Clinton and Obama overperformed their party in multiple elections (as those voters typically only vote every four years). However, those voters have shifted significantly since 2016. High turnout generally means more of these low-propensity voters are getting out to the polls and they have not been favorable to Democrats in the most recent elections.

They hurt Hillary in 2016, was a big reason Trump overperformed polls in 2020 and why he won in 2024.

These voters are typically less engaged than high-propensity voters - they're generally lower income and less educated.

A big reason Democrats have done so well in these elections is because higher educated, more affluent voters tend to vote more consistently than less educated and lower income voters.

It wasn't that long ago Republicans dominated white, college educated voters. But Harris actually won white educated voters 53-46.

In 2020, Trump was the first Republican in over 60 years to lose college educated white voters, having barely won it in 2016 (here's an article about how he was possibly the first Republican in 60 years to lose that vote - which he didn't but did in 2020 and then again in 2024).

These voters vote in these types of elections. It's a big reason Democrats did so well in special elections throughout 2023 and 2024 - and that was not a precursor to anything in terms of general election success because Trump has taken a lot of those low-propensity voters who used to support the Democrats.

Democrats went from winning those who made less than $50,000 by +22 points in 2012 with Obama (vs Romney), to losing this demographic by 2 to Trump in 2024.

Trump's success has proven a realignment of sorts. Democrats went from the party of the lower working class with a significant amount of high school-only educated voters - to the party of higher incomes and more education across all demographics.

To further expand on this point: in 2012, Obama beat Romney 51-48 among voters who had only a high school education. In 2024, Trump beat Harris among this group 56-43. Those voters are less likely to vote in these off elections than affluent, more educated voters. That's why Democrats USED to do well with high turnout elections. But not anymore. Not in the Age of Trump.

MadameButterfly

(3,725 posts)
41. Romney got caught on tape saying this:
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 08:56 PM
Apr 2025

"There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it -- that that's an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what. ... These are people who pay no income tax. ... [M]y job is not to worry about those people. I'll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."

Trump has somehow managed to convince low information voters that he is different.

 

Self Esteem

(2,248 posts)
45. Yes and it's made winning big turnout nationwide elections tough for Democrats.
Wed Apr 2, 2025, 12:23 PM
Apr 2025

The hope is that when Trump recedes from the national picture, those voters will shift back to the Democrats and the Democrats will be able to keep the white college educated voters that have abandoned the Republican Party the last eight years.

That coalition will be difficult to beat.

MadameButterfly

(3,725 posts)
46. i hope we don't have to wait that long
Thu Apr 3, 2025, 07:34 AM
Apr 2025

Even the low info voters should be noticing there is a problem with Trump/Elon

milestogo

(22,454 posts)
11. They may have underestimated how much people hate Eloon.
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 11:35 AM
Apr 2025

He's made the race about himself instead of about the candidates. Republicans will realize that it is a big mistake to have him come to their state and campaign, big money or not.

peggysue2

(12,370 posts)
15. Encouraging!
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 12:03 PM
Apr 2025

Interesting, too. The recent success in Louisiana where the Governor and legislature's four proposals were handily defeated was credited to a very large early vote. Even with the astoundingly low vote turnout, the Republicans (who predicted a 12% turnout) were taken by surprise by 21% of the electorate coming out and voting down their lousy ideas.

Here's hoping Wisconsin gives 'em Hell tonight!

DFW

(59,694 posts)
25. Be very cautiously optimistic. VERY cautiously
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 01:44 PM
Apr 2025

Remember Scott Walker, Ron Johnson and, of course, the Trump elections.

Remember Waukesha County, where a closet, stuffed to the ceiling with “forgotten, misplaced” Republican votes has mysteriously been “discovered” at the last second to throw a close election rightward—and not just once, either.

WiVoter

(1,539 posts)
27. Many power outages due to an ice storm.
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 01:53 PM
Apr 2025

Especially in the northern part of the state. Much of them still out. Rhinelander & Antigo will have to change sone polling places. Lots of cultists in those areas. That will definitely affect the magats turnout.

Owens

(587 posts)
29. Musk will use his Starlink to tamper with the ballots
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 01:55 PM
Apr 2025

The GOP ain't worried and the Democrats won't challenge it because of appearance sakes

moniss

(8,621 posts)
32. I am wary of reports about low GQP turnout etc.
Tue Apr 1, 2025, 02:02 PM
Apr 2025

right before the election or on election day. They can serve the GQP purpose of dampening Democratic turnout because people might feel their is enough strength so they can skip voting.

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