Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

muriel_volestrangler

(105,770 posts)
Thu Apr 3, 2025, 08:05 AM Apr 2025

Tariff rates may have been suggested by AI Large Language Models




"This might be the first large-scale application of AI technology to geopolitics.. 4o, o3 high, Gemini 2.5 pro, Claude 3.7, Grok all give the same answer to the question on how to impose tariffs easily."





Via Lawyers, Guns & Money: AI will doom us all
12 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Tariff rates may have been suggested by AI Large Language Models (Original Post) muriel_volestrangler Apr 2025 OP
Thanks. Great find. cachukis Apr 2025 #1
Paul Krugman comments on this: "Will Malignant Stupidity Kill the World Economy?" muriel_volestrangler Apr 2025 #2
"Dunning-Kruger kids" haha newdeal2 Apr 2025 #4
MUSICAL CODA Celerity Apr 2025 #9
Interesting. This author came to the same conclusion last night underpants Apr 2025 #3
Have spoken with some wealthy friends who are in cachukis Apr 2025 #5
This is the Liz Truss moment. muriel_volestrangler Apr 2025 #6
They don't want to tell the truth newdeal2 Apr 2025 #7
The formula used by trump to calculate tariffs is very stupid LetMyPeopleVote Apr 2025 #8
The AIs actually seem more nuanced than F47 & his asshole posse 0rganism Apr 2025 #10
The formula for these tariffs is stupid LetMyPeopleVote Apr 2025 #11
"Artificial intelligence" might be the stupidest concept ever devised in the history of the world. n/t valleyrogue Apr 2025 #12

muriel_volestrangler

(105,770 posts)
2. Paul Krugman comments on this: "Will Malignant Stupidity Kill the World Economy?"
Thu Apr 3, 2025, 08:32 AM
Apr 2025
There’s so much wrong with this approach that it’s hard to know where to start. But one easy thing to point out is that the Trump calculation only considers trade in goods, while ignoring trade in services. This is a big omission. Notably, the European Union runs a substantial surplus with us if you only look at trade in goods — but this is largely offset by an EU deficit in services trade:

So if Trump’s people had plugged all trade with the EU, not just trade in physical goods, into their formula they would have concluded that Europe is hardly protectionist at all.
...
But it may be even worse than that. The Trump formula is apparently what you get if you ask ChatGPT and other AI models to make tariff policy:
[The tweet in the OP]
In my post immediately following the Trump announcement I speculated that Elon Musk’s Dunning-Kruger kids might be responsible for those tariff numbers. That now looks like a distinct possibility.

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/will-careless-stupidity-kill-the

newdeal2

(4,993 posts)
4. "Dunning-Kruger kids" haha
Thu Apr 3, 2025, 08:53 AM
Apr 2025

But now this all makes more sense.

And when it all goes to shit, Trump will say “Big Balls did it. I never heard of the guy. This is the first I’m hearing of it.”

cachukis

(3,731 posts)
5. Have spoken with some wealthy friends who are in
Thu Apr 3, 2025, 09:55 AM
Apr 2025

favor with what's happening because when it all comes down, it can be built back up properly.
Don't say how, but it was so bad it has to go.
Beyond words.

muriel_volestrangler

(105,770 posts)
6. This is the Liz Truss moment.
Thu Apr 3, 2025, 10:04 AM
Apr 2025

They've proudly put forward an economic policy that has economists the world over saying "WTF? That's ridiculous. That'll cause a recession, at best".

Truss did it in a parliamentary system, so she lost the confidence of her party, and had to resign (like the House Speaker needs the confidence of his majority). Truss didn't outlast her lettuce.

In a presidential system, Trump's a lot harder to dispose of. You can't impeach for stupidity. It's dumb, but no Republican is going to say it's in the realm of the 25th Amendment "unable to do the job" reasons to chuck him out. But Congressional Republicans might just take back control of tariffs so that they can save their seats in 2 or 4 years' time.

Or several rich people might simply bribe Trump to resign, if that's what it takes. It'd still be worth it for them.

newdeal2

(4,993 posts)
7. They don't want to tell the truth
Thu Apr 3, 2025, 10:07 AM
Apr 2025

They are waiting for the Trump tax cuts and for an economic collapse so they can buy distressed businesses / property for cheap.

LetMyPeopleVote

(176,289 posts)
8. The formula used by trump to calculate tariffs is very stupid
Thu Apr 3, 2025, 12:11 PM
Apr 2025

This is a very stupid way to calculate tariffs







Here is the Vietnam example


This guy cracked the tariff formula:
@orthonormalist

It’s simply the nation’s trade deficit with us divided by the nation’s exports to us.

Yes. Really.

Vietnam: Exports 136.6, Imports 13.1
Deficit = 123.5

123.5/136.6 = 90%

0rganism

(25,510 posts)
10. The AIs actually seem more nuanced than F47 & his asshole posse
Thu Apr 3, 2025, 12:25 PM
Apr 2025

One calls the method "straightforward (if naive)". Another notes that doing this is "not feasible or desirable for several reasons". And there's a lot more cautionary language mixed in there.

While insufficient on its own, this could be seen as part of a larger body of supporting evidence for a theory that even the slave-toddler AIs we have now would govern the USA better than F47.

valleyrogue

(2,625 posts)
12. "Artificial intelligence" might be the stupidest concept ever devised in the history of the world. n/t
Thu Apr 3, 2025, 11:28 PM
Apr 2025
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Tariff rates may have bee...