Collegium Cardinalium: B+

Disclaimer: A B+ from me, for this particular body's work, is a pretty good grade.

It took them less than two days, and only four ballots. That's a good indication that Leo XIV, née Robert Francis Cardinal Prevost, did not scare too many of them spitless, since 89 of the 133 Cardinal Electors needed voted in his favor. While that means there could be as many as 44 Cardinals walking away mad, it's unlikely the vote was precisely 89-44.

It's also a good indication that a large majority found one or more of the principal factors motivating their votes in Prevost's background and body of work for the Church. On a superficial reading, those can be summarized as:

Conventional theological education with degrees from Catholic Theological Union of Chicago and Villanova University, an Augustinian foundation, which he chose to join. Studied Canon Law at Pontifical Aquinas University (he had to be highly recommended for admission, so he was clearly a rising star from an early age.)

Ordained at the age of 26 in 1982, and did missionary work in Peru under the Order's auspices for a long time, serving as Bishop of Chiclayo from 2014 until Pope Frankie tapped him for the College in 2023, and put him in charge of the Dicastery of Bishops.

What do I infer from that background and experience? First, dude's a competent bureaucrat and administrator, and has had at least a little time to learn the power map of the Vatican. The College was not looking for an ideologue, reformer, or inspirational leader. They wanted someone who could effectively address the many administrative and structural issues arising from a Church that had (in their view) changed perhaps too much and too rapidly over the last couple of decades.

That said, they didn't want a complete apparatchik or a revanchist, either. Looks like they've come to terms with a somewhat-modernized, somewhat-reformed Church, and are aware of the potential turmoil and disunity that threatens on either side of the "go back now" and "go forward more" divide.

So what do the College think they're getting with Leo XIV? They want someone who can negotiate, reconcile factions, compromise, and maintain the conceptual gains of reform without pushing too hard to update the structural underpinnings that would be the next phase. They feel a definite need for someone with sufficient worldly experience and sophistication to navigate a fairly threatening worldwide geopolitical environment, and stand up to the loud demands for extremist action on either end of the ideological spectrum.

I suspect a substantial minority of them also want to ensure that the Church doesn't lose ground in the ability to appeal to the 'invisible billions' dispossessed of power and resources, not to mention the influential Westernized liberal/progressive Catholic community. Keeping in mind the appeal of fundamentalist patriarchy in chaotic and oppressive patriarchal third-world cultures, that minority looks for a "moderate words, liberal charity" doctrine to increase the Church's reach in the Third World while maintaining support in the West.

What we're not likely to see: Any further progress on core structural issues such as married clergy and/or the ordination of women. Any compromise at all on abortion (though there may be some elegant fan-dancing on birth control, but that's nothing new.) Any ideological groundwork for the further welcome of LGBTQ+ catholics, or any substantial back-tracking on those issues (look for maintenance of a large fuzzy middle ground there.) Any vigorously fiery ideological or theological opposition to the world's more obvious fascist political leadership. Any energetic exhortations toward political reforms focused on implementing the Church's theological commitment to immigrants, refugees, the poor, etc. Confrontation of the pedophilia issue in any loudly public, meaningful way satisfactory to advocates and victims.

What we might see: Steady ground-holding on the Church's theological commitment to the poor, the refugee, etc. It won't be a loud and primary priority, but there will almost certainly be some surprises in store for those who regard a "moderate" stance as impunity to continue oppression. They'll get called out, if not passionately, certainly firmly. Some definitely "moderate" encyclicals that touch on issues such as abortion, divorce, homosexuality, etc., with exhortations to compassion without enjoining any actual structural tolerance. We're likely to see some quiet movement within the structural mandates and missions of various Catholic institutions, focused on addressing the shortage of clergy while closing many of the cracks that admit pedophiles and creepazoids. We may see some quiet institutional development of a more efficient system to identify and remove existing offenders.

On the whole, I think the College did pretty well for you, Catholics.

And I wish Leo XIV all success in actually keeping the worst at bay. Looks like he might have the nous to do it, and maybe a few surprises up that heavily-embroidered sleeve as well.

interestedly,
Bright