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Renew Deal

(84,707 posts)
Wed Jun 18, 2025, 09:46 PM Jun 2025

The war is over. Iran lost

The war is effectively over. Iran can't mount a defense, and Israel can do anything they want in Iran right now short of full invasion, which is not in their stated goals. Iran launched some missiles early on, but they were only meant to be a nuisance incapable of contributing to any military objective. As of Wednesday night, they aren't even able to do that.

There is going to have to be a lot of reckoning in Iran when this is over. The Iranian government prepared for one threat, and that was internal uprising. They were not prepared for a foreign adversary, supporting their allies like Hezbollah and Syria, or doing anything militarily to back up their rhetoric.

There is abundant evidence that they tried to avoid military fights, like their timid responses in the last two Israel incidents, their initial public statements about proportional military response to this latest outbreak while Israel was talking about regime change, staying out of the Hamas situation, and failing to support Assad.

Iran can still be a nuisance to the world by messing with shipping and oil, and deploying terrorists against the general public, but they can't defend themselves or take offensive action to support their objectives.

Where should Iran go from here? They could try to surrender, but I'm not sure that will be accepted at this point. Aside from that, I think the future in Iran will depend on whether the military is willing to replace the government. The government failed to prepare the country for their biggest adversary. Leaving the country and the population defenseless is inexcusable and heads should roll (possibly literally).

Israel could still screw this up if Netanyahu decides to be the "king of the ashes."

The world needs to be ready for a bigger, meaner, Iran in the future. They will learn from this and will likely not make the same mistakes again. (I think the same thing will happen with Russia after the Ukraine war.) That's a problem for another day.

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The war is over. Iran lost (Original Post) Renew Deal Jun 2025 OP
Missile capability in shambles. Nuclear weapons development crippled. nt LexVegas Jun 2025 #1
I've said before and I'll say it again, MarineCombatEngineer Jun 2025 #2
Mission accomplished? Where have I heard that before... meadowlander Jun 2025 #3
The operation that killed bin Laden? nt LexVegas Jun 2025 #4
In the timeline where we left Afghanistan in 2011 and it turned into a functional democracy? meadowlander Jun 2025 #5
No, the one where Obama accomplished the mission to kill bin Laden. nt LexVegas Jun 2025 #7
The thing about war is one party doesn't get to set the end point arbitrarily. meadowlander Jun 2025 #11
... W_HAMILTON Jun 2025 #20
Gaza enid602 Jun 2025 #6
You break it, you own it - 20 years later we left with our tail between our legs. walkingman Jun 2025 #8
Iran only managed to launch a small number of missiles today rollin74 Jun 2025 #9
Their offensive capability has been decimated. nt LexVegas Jun 2025 #12
Once the IAF gained air superiority over Iran, MarineCombatEngineer Jun 2025 #13
Egypt in 1967 sufferred the same fate PCIntern Jun 2025 #19
This message was self-deleted by its author PeaceWave Jun 2025 #10
We destroyed Iran's democracy and installed a king Easterncedar Jun 2025 #16
Wait, I thought it was 2 weeks away from nuclear capability? AloeVera Jun 2025 #22
Air superiority does not win a war. Eko Jun 2025 #14
Yes, it may well be necessary to win a war but Disaffected Jun 2025 #18
Depends on what the real goals are AZProgressive Jun 2025 #21
"It ain't over til it's over" -- Yogi Berra Ponietz Jun 2025 #15
Iran is still capable of plenty of mischief. DFW Jun 2025 #17

MarineCombatEngineer

(17,734 posts)
2. I've said before and I'll say it again,
Wed Jun 18, 2025, 09:48 PM
Jun 2025

Israel has bought itself, and the world, time to reckon with Iran, how much time they bought is yet to be seen.

meadowlander

(5,097 posts)
5. In the timeline where we left Afghanistan in 2011 and it turned into a functional democracy?
Wed Jun 18, 2025, 09:52 PM
Jun 2025

meadowlander

(5,097 posts)
11. The thing about war is one party doesn't get to set the end point arbitrarily.
Wed Jun 18, 2025, 10:04 PM
Jun 2025

There's always blowback and unintended consequences and loose ends. It's just a matter of when the impacts from them are felt.

enid602

(9,617 posts)
6. Gaza
Wed Jun 18, 2025, 09:54 PM
Jun 2025

“ Israel could still screw this up if Netanyahu decides to be the "king of the ashes."” BiBi has to keep the war going on for a while longer. It’s giving him shade for what’s going on in Gaza. The Evangelicals here in the States will be let down if the war doesn’t go on, and will have to wait longer for the ‘second coming.’

rollin74

(2,272 posts)
9. Iran only managed to launch a small number of missiles today
Wed Jun 18, 2025, 10:03 PM
Jun 2025

By far the fewest since the conflict began.

MarineCombatEngineer

(17,734 posts)
13. Once the IAF gained air superiority over Iran,
Wed Jun 18, 2025, 10:07 PM
Jun 2025

it was, for all intents and purposes, over for Iran, Israel went after their air defenses, airfields, and other military targets with impunity.

PCIntern

(27,976 posts)
19. Egypt in 1967 sufferred the same fate
Thu Jun 19, 2025, 01:23 AM
Jun 2025

They were massing to invade Israel and Israel launched a decimating attack which obliterated the Egyptian Air Force. That was the end for Egypt, they just didn’t realize it for five more days.

Response to Renew Deal (Original post)

Easterncedar

(5,532 posts)
16. We destroyed Iran's democracy and installed a king
Wed Jun 18, 2025, 10:34 PM
Jun 2025

We overturned the will of people, and they rose against us. Most didn’t want the ayatollah’s dictatorship, but that’s what WE created. The Woman, Life, Freedom movement proves the liberal heart of the Iranian people. How many thousands of dead are left in our wake? We could have had a strong, free, progressive and democratic ally, and the people of Iran and the surrounding countries could have been saved so much suffering.

AloeVera

(4,000 posts)
22. Wait, I thought it was 2 weeks away from nuclear capability?
Thu Jun 19, 2025, 01:51 PM
Jun 2025

Just like Iraq was on the verge of using their WMDs!

Now it turns out to be a paper tiger?

Almost as if we got played again....

Eko

(9,818 posts)
14. Air superiority does not win a war.
Wed Jun 18, 2025, 10:23 PM
Jun 2025

If it did the Gaza war would have been over long ago.

AZProgressive

(29,852 posts)
21. Depends on what the real goals are
Thu Jun 19, 2025, 05:45 AM
Jun 2025

If it is to "eliminate" Hamas that is unlikely and you can't really defeat an ideology but the vast majority of targets are aimed at civilian targets with no real military objective like you would see in wars fought back when most countries respected international & humanitarian law. During the most recent ceasefire you saw Hamas on the streets with plenty of members still left so Israel did a lot of killing but didn't actually get much of Hamas.

If they are trying to ethnically cleanse as much of the Gaza population it will take a long time depending on how long Israel's allies allow it to continue.

DFW

(59,737 posts)
17. Iran is still capable of plenty of mischief.
Wed Jun 18, 2025, 10:45 PM
Jun 2025

They can still supply Hezbollah and Hamas with terror weaponry and training. Our biggest hope of a diminishing of their regime’s power lies, as it always did, with the internal opposition within Iran. Only 51% or so of their 90+ million people are Persians. The rest are a conglomerate of many peoples, including Azeris, Baluchis, Kurds, Assyrians, Arabs and ten to fifteen others. None of them have traditionally expressed delight at being ruled by the Persians. If we want Iran to become the Middle Eastern version of Switzerland for which it is ideally suited, it’s the people who live there that will bring this about. No pressure from the outside will accomplish it. We can help (CIA etc.), but in the end, it will have to be their show, not ours. Anything else will ultimately be seen as an unwelcome imposition from the outside (think Shah), and will ultimately be overthrown as illegitimate, even if the alternative is worse (such as now).

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