Most of Irans aircraft are old. And they don't have any bombers. Most nations don't have bombers anymore. I think only the US, Russia, and China have dedicated strategic bombers now. It makes sense, modern air defenses make approaching and entering enemy airspace risky. The only bombers that are still going to drop a gravity nuke is a stealth one. And even those will probably just fire a standoff one weapon like a cruise missile unless you have total air supremacy or a bunch of ewar aircraft blinding everything.

Given that most of the nations they take issue with are rather close to their border, they don't really need to go all in on a long-range delivery vehicle.

If they have a jet in their inventory, they have a delivery vehicle. Not a very good one perhaps, but still good enough to scare any of their regional enemies.

The idea that a nuclear weapon should only be considered a threat if it's equipped to a high-tech stealth bomber is pure techno-fetishism.

Back in the days when the MQ-1 Predator was top of the line.

https://media.defense.gov/2017/Dec/29/2001862132/-1/-1/0/T_RENEHAN_UNMANNED_AERIAL_VEHICLES.PDF

What was the other thing that Iran spent years and millions of dollars developing again? Oh yeah... Their drone program.

Lots of low tech ways to deliver a bomb.

It was in some war college book. Iran or terrorists detonate a nuclear bomb inside Iran to blame America and Israel.

Seems like one of those might be used to deliver a smaller tactical nuke---
but not within 3 weeks time... they'd still have to build the actual bomb,
and adapt one of their delivery vehicles for it...

I supposed to fall for this? Isn't there an expiration date?

for a mushroom cloud. Condi, Scooter, and Dick tried to warn us!

not that it mattered. What a difference between then and now, and yet here we are replacing the Q with an N.

Unfortunately I think the gauntlet has been thrown (by us) and they’re not going to waste time waffling between different internal factions anymore.

Going to guess they’re all united on getting it done now

they turn in clusters because their roots connect them.

Because otherwise I call bullshit.

in a matter of minutes? Same goes for North Korea, Russia, India, Pakistan, France, England whoever,
it is a useless weapon other than an insurance policy. In my opinion the two most likely countries to use
one is the USA and Israel just because of our current insane leadership.

We just bombed the shit out of Iran.

We would not have bombed the shit out of them if they had a nuclear weapon.

Ergo, many countries will now see possession of a nuclear weapon or two as a critical defense deterrent. Many in the IR world now believe Iran has learned that lesson and will put aside internal differences and work to weaponize their uranium immediately instead of using their hidden program as a “Will they won’t they” negotiating tactic.

Deterrence or suicide?

I’m not any kind of expert on this so I won’t pretend to know.

The only thing I do know is they’re a Shia majority country surrounded by Sunni regimes that hate them. Every IR expert posits Iran believes they “need” deterrence for historical reasons (and yes, more recently in Persia’s many century long existence - Israel/Jew hatred).

We just nicely showed Iran that they need deterrence from the villainous West too. Whatever forces constrained Iran from going 60-90% enrichment and putting it on a delivery system are now gone.

Iran may superficially agree to negotiations with Traitor and the US but most experts believe Iran doesn’t trust or believe anything we say anymore and will persist in attaining a weapon asap even as they straight up lie to our (and the IAEA) faces. We have no idea where any part of their nuclear program/enriched uranium exists anymore.

Enter James Acton and the OP on the JCPOA…

As if the Iraq war didn't prove it---- and Iran was target #2
on the Neocon's "regime change" list....

And stringing along the west as they moved along on their nukes program have now been converted into hardliners.

Who knows, Israel probably bombed and killed the moderate/work-with-the-West guys. I don’t know enough about the internal dynamics of Iranian politics to know whose still alive anymore

was to kidnap Americans for ransom.

It’s a radical government that pledges death to America. And your idea is to placate them so they are less hostile? They don’t do things to kill America because they can’t. Same with Israel. Our military is what keeps them in check. They’d invade Israel tomorrow if they had a chance in hell. Until they get a regime change, they need to be held to as low of technological level as possible.

A Russian who no longer holds any office in Russia,
and reportedly spouts off a lot like a loose cannon...

However, Pakistan has claimed sympathy for Iran,
and they DO have the bomb...

Thought they had no desire for nukes? You'd figure they'd be 3 weeks away from boundless nuclear power, with how long this research has been going on. If they're 3 weeks from The Bomb, there is apparently more work to be done neutering them.

Estimates are at LEAST a year (and likely more to actually construct even a NK-style crude early bomb.

The point that TSF was an utter idiot to have torn up the Obama agreement is valid as we would not be looking at that short time span to go from 60-90% enriched Uranium but rather would have been in the single digits. But, there is no way that in 120 days Iran will not only enrich to 90% but also build the completed bomb.

Anyone with enough fissile material can make a gun type. A miniturized implosion one, thats considerably more difficult.

If they’d had the capability they would’ve already done it. You can bank on that.

Israel has assassinated top scientists and engineers. They may have saved the uranium but likely not the equipment needed to complete a usable weapon. They are having to make do with secondary work site(s) they can not draw attention to.

Even if they could produce a core in weeks, they’d still have to deliver it. The likelihood of that is also small.

This is right-wing fear-mongering.

Also, we should be no more concerned about Iran having a nuke at some future date, than we should be now about Bibi Netanyahu having nukes.

I believe he’s simply pointing out that Iran is now fully motivated to put aside partisan internal fighting over weaponizing their uranium and most likely will do so post-haste. His larger point about the JCPOA stands.

And tbh, Iran - whether it’s ruled by the Islamic Republic or becomes a full fledged democracy - remains a hated Shia majority country surrounded by Sunnis. Perhaps they lose their murderous hatred for Israel but other ancient grievances remain that may compel them to obtain a nuclear device for deterrence, large or small, regardless.

That makes zero sense. We've heard nothing but how Iran is away from a nuke for two decades now. I believe it as much as I believe the WMD in Iraq. Hasn't this war been destructive enough already?

Also, a tweet that provides no evidence and says only "Iran could have a nuclear bomb" is far from persuasive. It's irresponsible to try to pass that off as evidence, when it obviously isn't.

nukes being passed around about 10-20 years ago

#DementiaDonnie's just not into you anymore.

If this is true, that they can have a bomb in 3 weeks, then Israel and the US were 200% justified in bombing Iran. This is crazy and is counter to yesterdays message.

Above nor the OP message.