When you don't spend, it shows... I have more in my savings account and less junk in my house. We did books this year for birthdays instead of electronics and nick-nacks. Baked a cake instead of bought one.

Scared people don't spend, they save.

His tariffs' effects still haven't been realized as some people spent on big ticket items to try to get prices before the tariffs were locked in.

because another negative quarter is recession. Hard to see how this quarter will be better than last but they'll cook the books.

As a point of comparison - the current "blue chip" consensus for this quarter is almost 2% grown (annualized of course) with a range of estimates from just barely positive to 3.5%... yet GDPNOW just a few weeks ago was at almost 5%.

When it comes in well below what Atlanta was predicting... will you think they're cooking the books?

Was that it couldn't possibly be that bad and it wasn't, although we did have neg growth. It would be odd to me if Q2 was better...

I got this from Web Archive
https://web.archive.org/web/20250326134352/https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

I didn't see your post when I posted 617blue but great minds think alike.

I mean was it true when they previously reported as being much better or is this new reporting the truth? I know, I know, the Commerce Department gives out 3 estimates as a matter of routine. But ......................

Can we really trust anything the current administration is reporting? They have put in Nazis throughout the government and fired honest capable people. How deep does the rot go? How easily do Nazis lie for their dystopia?

Trump appointed his own Nazi as head of the Commerce Department. (Glad they stopped calling it the Department of Commerce and Labor, they never gave a crap about labor)

The current department secretary, Lutnick, was a fundraiser for Donald Trump's 2020 and 2024 presidential campaigns, as well as a vocal proponent of Trump's proposal to implement broad tariffs.

So....take whatever his department reports with a big grain of salt. Yes, they will lie for their ideology to look good. If they are reporting this downturn, how bad must it be for real?

I'm retired and in my 70's, so what on earth would I need at this late stage of my life? I have always hated shopping anyway and adopted a lifestyle of frugality and voluntary simplicity starting in my 50's. Now I don't want to leave a huge nightmare for my son to deal with if and when I leave this world. I've seen too many of my senior neighbors and other acquaintances whose grown children are consumed with spending days and days dealing with a house loaded with stuff.

...and make trips to our local animal shelter resale shop with extras. I don't need a new cellphone. I use them til they die.

is negative, there is still about one third of this country who will believe it when reich-wing propaganda tells them that it is President Biden's fault.

Canada's; it grew by 2.2% in the first quarter, after Trump's tariffs. It is likely going to be short lived because people and companies were stockpiling but we will brag where we can.

be good to go along with the new agreements from countries to buy Canadian steel rather than steel from the US.

indicators pointing in the wrong direction.

So that means an official recession. Actually officially The Trump Recession!

Of course Trump will get his wish and the fed will cut rates but that's just to try and slow down the slide that he started.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143450417#post20

The NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) is the official determiner of recessions, not Internet memes and myths, no matter how popular and widespread, and no matter how much we wish, and no matter how often cable news talking heads repeat it.

As for what the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model is predicting:
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

I occasionally look at it, and I haven't seen anything negative or close to negative predicted for Q2.

Currently its +3.4% for Q2 (seasonally adjusted annual rate).
Separately the blue-chip consensus is slightly below +2.0%.

GDP is a terrible metric. It mostly tells us how the rich and large corporations are doing. For the last five decades GDP has increased benefiting the the top 10% (and really benefiting the top 1%) while ordinary people at best treaded water (many sank).

Democrats cheered as GDP rose under Biden without stopping to consider who was benefiting (hint, it was seldom ordinary workers). Two things can be simultaneously true. GDP can soar while the ordinary people see their economic position erode at the same time.

...of shepherding the economy for all Americans--only to be shocked when a large enough percentage of the voting population vote against them because their personal economy doesn't look so great.

If Democrats are able to run in and win elections ever again they need to come up with an AVP--Average Voter Product--to focus on. Carville was right about one thing: it's the economy stupid....

That makes no sense.
GDP is based on spending at the final transaction level.
Billionaires don't spend all their income on goods & services.
Normal people spend a far higher % of their available income on such goods & services.
How can GDP be reflective of only the rich when they aren't spending but a fraction of all the money?

As to the rich, GDP is an overall measure, so one part of the economy can be roaring (like say cap-ex on AI data centres) while other parts are contracting (like fruits and berries).

GDP measures the size/productive capacity of an economy. It says nothing about inequality. A country (i.e. the USA) can have a large per capita GDP and at the same time have a huge underclass.

https://hbr.org/2019/10/gdp-is-not-a-measure-of-human-well-being